SMM1 March 13: the outer metal market soared across the board yesterday, with (LME) nickel on the London Metal Exchange jumping on Tuesday after the Philippines, a major nickel producer, ordered a moratorium on nickel mining on an island. Although the ban does not cover the country's nickel mining centre in the Karaga region, potential supply disruptions have pushed up nickel prices. Analysts point out that this appears to be only a small part of the Philippine nickel mining industry, which, while noteworthy, will not have a significant impact on actual supply. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:35, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi Nickel rose nearly 0.1%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.3%, Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.2%. On the domestic side, international copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.3%, and Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.1%. Shanghai nickel rose nearly 2.6%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, Fed officials believe it is too early to discuss scaling back bond purchases, with the dollar index sharply weaker as US bond yields rise and fall. In addition, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly dropped by 5.821 million barrels in the week ending January 8 announced last night, injecting optimism into the market and superimposing the market's expectation of the Biden government's further economic stimulus plan, US oil once hit a record high. It is expected to be 7970-8050 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 58600-59100 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] US Oil once reached a new high to inject optimism into the market. Copper rose first and then suppressed at night.
In terms of aluminum, on the domestic side, the fundamentals supply side is slowly rising, consumption performance is seasonally declining, and the industry has entered the accumulation cycle. It is expected that the price center of gravity will fluctuate downward before the Spring Festival, and the lower price range is likely to be enlarged; attention should be paid to the impact of stock accumulation on the disk structure and market sentiment on absolute prices. Recently, due to the weakness of the US dollar index and the boost of oil prices, the overseas aluminum price is stronger than the domestic performance, and the overseas fundamentals are expected to be stronger than the domestic in the first quarter, so the import window continues to close, and the internal and external logic is still valid.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the start-up of profile plate and strip in December is weaker than the same period last year and continues to be a positive set of logic inside and outside the aluminum city.
In terms of lead, the overnight dollar index fell sharply, boosting the general rise of LME base metals, while Lun lead stopped falling and ended positive. Overnight, the metal in and out of the market rose, while Shanghai lead stopped falling and closed higher. However, the recent weak domestic consumption and decoupling are expected to make Shanghai lead rebound slightly insufficient, or will continue the trend of concussion below the moving average group.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead stopped falling in and out of the market overnight, closed higher, and the recycled lead discount in the spot market shrank again.
In terms of zinc, macroscopically, domestic credit growth slowed down in December, policy support tended to be normal, and fundamentally, TC stopped falling and stabilized and the supply side was relatively stable, but according to SMM research, the consumer side knew that galvanized and die-casting plates declined to varying degrees in January. North China galvanizing plant was controlled by the epidemic and consumption was weaker, and consumer support was insufficient.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] consumption is seasonally weak and Shanghai Zinc is expected to remain weak in the short term.
On the nickel side, on the macro front, overseas easing and expected recovery in consumption still make the market believe that commodities are in a strong cycle, but the latest hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve have disturbed market sentiment, and for nickel prices, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of macro news. In addition, as the price of nickel continues to rise, there is pressure on the high itself, and the rate of price increase will gradually slow down. While there is support below, the space above is also limited. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 127000-135000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 17300-18200 US dollars / ton.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the news that the Back structure of a mining area in the Philippines has been banned has aroused market concern.
Tin, yesterday, the spot price of Shanghai tin fell with the futures price, the rising water continued to rise, the supply of goods was more abundant, and the mainstream rising discount: 500,800 yuan / ton for 2103 contract Yunxi, 200,400 yuan / ton for ordinary Yunzi, 100yuan / ton for small-brand discount to flat water, and the price difference between brands narrowed. The market transaction atmosphere is general, some downstream enter the market to replenish goods. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin is weak and volatile, the market performance is strong, today's spot is expected to be in the mainstream range of 153000-154000 yuan / ton.
"[1.13 Forecast of Tin Price Today]
In terms of black, threads rose nearly 0.1%, hot rolls rose nearly 0.2%, stainless steel rose nearly 1.4%, coking coal fell nearly 1.3%, and coke fell nearly 0.1%. In terms of hot rolls, from a market point of view, the volume of goods arriving in the Shanghai market has declined this week. Mainly because the northeast region is affected by the freezing of road surface and water surface, transportation is hindered to a certain extent, and the southward pace of northeast resources slows down. There has been an increase in the volume of goods arriving this week. Mainly due to the recent increase in the output of willow steel coil, the gradual increase in the amount of market resources from Lecong. The volume of goods arriving in Tianjin continued to decline this week. It is mainly affected by local prices and transportation restrictions of surrounding steel mills. In the short term, the current market sentiment is weak, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, prices are expected to continue to run under pressure.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the current market of iron ore in Australia and Brazil is still supported by the month-on-month drop in iron ore.
Last period crude oil rose nearly 2.7 per cent and crude oil futures hit an 11-month high of just under $57 a barrel on Tuesday, boosted by Saudi Arabia's plan to restrict supplies, overshadowing fears that a rise in global cases would dampen fuel demand. The Saudi production cut is part of an agreement led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)), under which most oil-producing countries will keep production stable in February. The OPEC, made up of OPEC and its allies, cut production last year, helping oil prices recover from record lows hit in April.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.9%, and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%. COMEX gold futures closed lower on Tuesday, giving up early gains in dismal trading, continuing a week-long trend of weakness. Biden said Americans need more financial aid and that he will launch a plan that will cost "trillions of dollars". The latest US jobs report showed that non-farm payrolls fell for the first time in eight months, indicating that the COVID-19 epidemic continues to affect the economy.
As of 09:35, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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