SMM12, March 17: most of the outer disk metals were red yesterday, and copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed higher on Wednesday. In addition to optimism about strong demand in China, major consumers, falling inventories, a weaker dollar and the introduction of novel coronavirus vaccines in some major economies also boosted copper prices. Analysts point out that Chinese manufacturing data are strong, US industrial production data are quite good, and the weaker dollar has helped the commodity market as a whole. Most of the LME metal markets were red this morning. As of 09:30, Lun Copper, Lun Zinc and Lun Al were up nearly 0.3%, Lun Pb was up nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat, Lunni fell slightly, while domestic copper and Shanghai copper were up nearly 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum was up nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead was up nearly 0.7%, Shanghai nickel was down nearly 1.4%, Shanghai zinc was up nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin was up nearly 1%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, the Fed said it would keep monetary policy and bond-buying programs unchanged until "substantial" progress was made on employment and inflation, while members of Congress said they were close to reaching agreement on a bailout bill worth less than $900 billion. Under the optimistic expectation of the market, the dollar index fell sharply, giving some support to the copper price.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the dollar index fell sharply and copper gained strong support at night.
In terms of aluminum, if the ECB is expected to increase the size of the stock, it is expected that it will continue to be good for basic metals and effectively boost Lun Aluminum; in terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the loose funds and low inventory levels are still a strong support for the market, but the fundamental supply has been slowly rising recently, while there are signs of seasonal weakening on the demand side, so we need to continue to pay attention to changes in market sentiment. After delivery, the monthly gap is expected to gradually narrow and return, and Shanghai Aluminum is mainly on the strong side in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the impact of power cuts in Zhejiang on the aluminum processing industry is limited. In the short term, the trend of Shanghai Aluminum is still dominated by strong shocks.
In terms of lead, the overnight dollar index rebounded slightly at the end of the day to put pressure on the outer disk metal to fall, lun lead negative. Overnight, Shanghai lead rose slightly in the general rising atmosphere of all ferrous metals, but the upper 60, 40 and 5 moving averages put pressure on the bulls.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] maintenance of lead concussion primary regeneration discount during internal and external disc period
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a long shadow column, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a compression, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. At present, the fundamentals have not changed greatly, and the tight logic of the supply side has not changed, but recently environmental protection and power cuts have been a constant storm, which is expected to drag down some downstream consumption. Pay attention to the intensity of power cuts in various places in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] short-term attention should be paid to local power cuts in the high consolidation of zinc in Shanghai.
In terms of nickel, the overall performance of the fundamentals is stable and improving. Although it is not easy for the price of high nickel pig iron to rise, the center of gravity of the transaction has actually hit bottom, and the price of stainless steel has also rebounded from low to release a certain profit space for steel mills. It is expected that the operating rate can maintain the current stable level; while the electrolytic nickel market is stable in consumption and the import volume is limited by the ratio, the domestic inventory falls to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 123000-133000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 16300-17800 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price high adjustment fell down 130000 mark stainless steel factory price fell after a big rise on Monday.
In terms of black, thread rose by nearly 1.4%, hot coil by nearly 0.7%, coking coal by nearly 0.2%, coke by nearly 1.1%, and iron ore by nearly 0.3%. In terms of hot rolls, prices have risen continuously recently, and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods on the demand side is weak. Terminal enterprises often lose money under high costs, but some terminal enterprise orders have been overconnected to the first quarter of next year, and the short-term hot coil rigid demand is still strong. What is worth paying attention to is that recently, it has been rumored that some small terminal enterprises have begun to destroy orders due to serious losses, while the expectation of labor-intensive enterprises in East and South China to have a holiday ahead of time at the wrong peak has also gradually increased, which may deal a blow to the expectation of strong demand in the future. thus affecting the trend of spot prices.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Iron ore prices are still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the support of high demand for new production capacity.
Crude oil rose nearly 3.2% in the previous period, and international oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, helped by a (EIA) report from the US Energy Information Administration showing a decline in commercial crude oil inventories last week and optimism about the novel coronavirus aid plan in the United States. EIA reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks increased due to a sharp drop in net US crude oil imports.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.5%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 2.8%. Comex gold futures held steady on Wednesday, as the market expected more support for the US economy, the US Federal Reserve (FED/ Federal Reserve) will maintain a dovish position, offsetting the pressure brought by novel coronavirus's optimism about vaccination. The Fed said it would continue to buy bonds until substantial progress was made on its target. The Fed said it expects GDP to shrink less in 2020 than it forecast in September, but will grow faster in 2021 and 2022 than it forecast in September. In addition, the Fed's median forecast shows that interest rates will remain near zero until the end of 2023.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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