SMM12 March 7: most of the non-ferrous metals market is red in the morning. By midday, international copper rose 0.6%, Shanghai copper rose 0.57%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.61%, Shanghai lead rose 0.24%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.09%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.56%, Shanghai tin rose 0.44%. During the Asian session, the dollar index hovered near a two-and-a-half-year low. Positive developments in vaccines and optimistic expectations for the stimulus plan have kept the dollar under pressure. The market will also be watching the Fed's decision in the evening, with congressional negotiations on a massive government spending bill making progress and novel coronavirus's rescue measures encouraging risk appetite, weakening demand for the dollar as a safe asset, Huitong reported. The US has expanded the coverage of Pfizer and BioNTech SE vaccines, while a vaccine developed by Moderna is expected to be approved this week, supporting market sentiment; expectations of the Fed's interest rate decision are also skewed towards doves, leaving the dollar at risk of a further downturn; but there is also a need to be wary of the risk of bottoming out caused by "Boot luo Land".
In terms of lead, spot prices have fallen, the enthusiasm of smelters has declined, Henan is still dominated by long-order transactions recently, Yunnan has cherished sales, buyers' inquiries are slightly more than sellers' quotations, downstream transactions are generally active, and bulk trading volume is small.
[SMM afternoon Review] lead market conditions in other regions KuaiBao: lead prices rebounded slightly downstream trading activity improved slightly
Shanghai lead continued to rise last night in morning trading, returning to above the 40-day and 60-day moving average. Lead prices rebounded slightly, but refineries were afraid to buy cautiously, and the price of waste batteries remained stable. Lead prices stop falling, recycled lead refinery shipping mood increased, recycled lead discount maintained, the mainstream quotation of SMM1# lead average price discount 150,250yuan / ton, part of the discount 300yuan / ton, downstream according to the need to replenish the warehouse, delivery is good.
[SMM afternoon Review] recycled lead: lead low rebounding refinery shipments are active
In terms of zinc, the mainstream turnover of zinc in Guangdong Province was 21450-21600 yuan / ton, and the quotation concentrated on the increase of 80,100 yuan / ton in the 2102 contract for Shanghai zinc, and the discount of 90 yuan / ton on the Guangdong stock market was 20 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices opened low and went high, and downstream rigid demand was mainly procured. coupled with the increase in delivery at low prices yesterday, demand declined today, and futures turned to quotations for 2102 contracts after the futures changed months. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a price of 90-100 yuan / ton for the Shanghai zinc contract and 80-85 yuan / ton for Tiefeng. In the second trading session, futures prices were still strong, downstream inquiry purchases declined, traders received goods at low prices, and a small number of transactions were made in the market. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a price of 90 yuan / ton for Shanghai zinc 2102 contract, 80 yuan / ton for Tiefeng and 85 yuan / ton for blue zinc. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng, Feilong and other mainstream transactions in 21450-21600 yuan / ton.
[SMM afternoon Review] Zinc in Guangdong: prices are too strong, prices are too strong, rigid demand is less in the lower reaches.
The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 21570-21660 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 21630-21680 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 22990 yuan / ton, zinc was generally quoted around 30-80 yuan / ton for 2101 contract, and Zijin was quoted around 90-120 yuan / ton for January contract. The discount in Tianjin is about 70 yuan / ton compared to Shanghai.
[SMM afternoon Review] Tianjin Zinc: the impact of environmental protection starts again, and the market goes down to ship goods with rising water.
In terms of black series, thread rose 2.49%, hot coil rose 1.92%, coking coal rose 1.12%, coke rose 1.55%, iron ore rose 2.2%, stainless steel fell 1.63%, thread, according to SMM research, as of December 15, the operating rate of independent electric arc furnaces of 34 major building materials across the country was 78.64%, down 4.69% from last week. The operating rate in South China has risen by 1 percentage point to about 95% compared with last week, while in East China, especially in Zhejiang, a number of related steel mills have been affected and their production has been reduced to varying degrees. As a result, the operating rate of electric furnace factories in East China this week has been reduced by 10 percentage points to about 82% compared with last week, and the supply contraction caused by the decline in the operating rate of electric furnaces, especially in East China. There is no doubt that the phenomenon of tight specifications in the relevant areas will be further intensified, the bottom support of spot prices will continue to be rammed, although the seasonal weakening rhythm of rebar prices will continue to be postponed, short-term price support will still be strong.
Crude oil fell 0.36% in the previous period, and international crude oil futures prices fell on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased and investors continued to worry about falling fuel demand as Europe tightened blockades to contain the epidemic. Crude oil stocks rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 11, according to data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday. Analysts interviewed had expected a reduction of 1.9 million barrels.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 1.49% and Shanghai silver rose 3.31%. As details of the US anti-epidemic relief plan were announced, market expectations for a new round of novel coronavirus assistance plan for the United States increased further, and the dollar index continued to weaken. at one point in intraday trading, it fell to 90.345, a new low for another two and a half years, and precious metals were boosted. In addition, the market's loose expectations for the upcoming Fed's December monetary policy meeting also supported gold and silver.
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![[SMM Análisis Macro] Jackson Hole señala una Fed de línea dura, impulsando las expectativas de subida de tipos en septiembre](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
