SMM12, March 7: the outer metal market generally rose on Friday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange rising to its highest level since March 2013, as US politicians moved closer to agreeing on a long-awaited stimulus spending plan. There were mixed ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:50, Lun Copper was down 0.18%, Lun Zinc up 0.35%, Lun Al down 0.71%, Lunni up 0.12%, Lunxi flat, Lun lead down 0.05%. On the domestic front, international copper and Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.2%, Shanghai nickel rose 2%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.4%, and Shanghai tin rose 0.5%.
On the copper front, Labor Department data on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls rose by just 245000 in November, and unemployment rose with a second outbreak, raising market expectations of more federal stimulus measures. In addition, the vaccine developed by Pfizer Pharmaceuticals is about to be put on the market. Under the optimism of the market, the US stock market has set a new record, the dollar index as a whole is still on a downward track, and copper prices still have some room to rise during this period. It is expected to be 7710-7790 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 57300-57800 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] non-farm payrolls data are lower than expected. The stimulus bill is expected to accelerate copper prices.
In terms of aluminum, overseas economic data is still relatively weak, and the US index continues to decline to give some support to non-ferrous metals. Although Lun Aluminum has slowed down due to a sharp pullback in Shanghai Aluminum, it is still expected to have a strong performance under the support of the continued weak US index. In terms of Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum rebounded overnight, but the enthusiasm of the bulls was significantly reduced, and the return of funds at the end of the year and worries about the inflection point of inventory made the bulls lack confidence and increased wait-and-see mood. In the case of a relatively slow increase in supply, a small weakening on the consumer side is not enough to cause inventory to continue to accumulate. It is expected that the short-term spot tension is still the same, the aluminum long-short game has intensified than before, and the price is high.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] downstream demand weakens slightly and the long-short game intensifies.
In terms of lead, overnight lead fell slightly to close three consecutive negative, continued consolidation state, still need to pay attention to the progress of the US stimulus plan. Last Friday, Shanghai lead closed down again in the night trading after four consecutive negative pullbacks after rising on Monday. The spot market smelter is expected to resume production gradually, there is no obvious change in downstream consumption, and the room for lead recovery in Shanghai is limited, but it is supported by domestic macro improvement and recycled lead cost, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term.
"[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead weakening social inventory accumulation during the period of lead weakening
As for zinc, it was dragged down by the outer disk last Friday, and Shanghai zinc performed weakly. From a fundamental point of view, there is no big change in the contradiction between supply and demand, the logic of tight supply still exists, and social inventory is reduced again, showing that consumption is capricious, but the popularity of high zinc prices has declined, and there is a lack of news guidance. It is expected that zinc prices will remain high in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] spot transaction improved resilience of zinc consumption in Shanghai last Friday
In terms of nickel, investor sentiment inside and outside the macro level is divided: overseas is generally looking forward to economic recovery due to vaccine progress, while at home, due to the lack of upward breakthrough factors, the internal market trend is weak. Considering that the expectation of overseas water release is still there and the macro-loose environment has not changed, the nickel market will remain high and volatile. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 116000-121000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 15800-16350 US dollars / ton.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] domestic pure nickel continues the trend of slow decline in the stock market of high nickel pig iron may be expected to pick up slightly.
In terms of tin, the epidemic in Europe has improved recently, but the epidemic in the United States has continued to worsen due to the impact of Thanksgiving travel, and the epidemic gap between Europe and the United States has further weakened the dollar. According to the statistics bureau, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 52.1% in November, up 0.7% from the previous month, staying above the tipping point for nine consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing sector has recovered well. China imported a large amount of refined tin in the first 10 months, which tightened overseas supply, while the domestic tight supply of raw materials affected some production, and the overall supply did not appear to be very loose. A weaker dollar and overall tight supply at home and abroad support tin prices below.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Tin supply at home and abroad continues to be tight to support the trend of tin prices.
In terms of black, thread and hot coil rose by nearly 2.5%, coking coal by nearly 1.7%, coke by 2% and iron ore by nearly 0.8%. In terms of threads, under the condition that the production end is relatively stable, the overall demand for rebar continues to be weak. inventory has also reached the critical line of accumulation, market sentiment is mainly cautious bearish, the downward trend of thread spot prices has been formed. However, the "teammates" are too powerful, the performance of iron ore, hot coil and even coking coal coke is quite strong, the road of thread decline is not destined to be smooth, and it may be in the stage of weak shock in the short term.
[minutes of SMM's Internal Morning meeting] the hot coil pulled by iron ore continues to be strong and the fundamental drag on the performance is weak.
Crude oil in the previous period rose nearly 0.6%. Crude oil futures prices rose on Friday as expectations of the US economic stimulus package and COVID-19 vaccine outweighed the impact of increased supply and the rising death toll of novel coronavirus. The OPEC, made up of the (OPEC) of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies, reached an agreement on Thursday to increase production slightly from January, but would continue to implement most of the existing supply restrictions to cope with demand hit by COVID-19.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose slightly, and Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.7%. On Friday, international gold prices rose and fell back, with spot gold falling more than $10 at one point to a new low of $1829.29 per ounce, earlier hitting $1848.21 per ounce, the highest level since Nov. 23, as US stock markets rose to record highs and US bond yields jumped, weakening the attractiveness of precious metals as alternative assets.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
"Click to see more metal futures.
