SMM12: the outer metal market was mixed yesterday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange hitting its highest level since 2013 on Tuesday, as data showed manufacturing in Europe, the United States and Asia expanded rapidly in November and vaccines made investors more optimistic about the economic outlook. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:40 in the morning, Lun Copper fell nearly 0.4%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.5%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Nickel fell nearly 0.5%, Lun Xi was flat, and Lun lead fell nearly 0.9%. On the domestic front, international copper fell 0.1%, Shanghai copper fell 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum rose 1%, Shanghai lead fell 1.76%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.6%, Shanghai zinc fell 1%, and Shanghai tin fell 0.6%.
In terms of aluminum, the mood of risk aversion in the market has obviously eased recently, the trend of outer disk metal is strong, and Lun Aluminum has recently recorded new highs against the background of falling US index, warmer overseas demand and tight supply. Pay attention to the impact of follow-up market trading atmosphere and macro data such as the dollar index. In terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the continued decline in low inventories and consumption stability give bulls strong confidence in the fundamentals. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue its strong trend, so we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of marginal changes in inventory on market sentiment. It is expected that the short-term spot tension will be maintained, and the futures aluminum price will be on the strong side before the year.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Alumina in the north rises slightly due to aluminum price and the weather warning time in Gongyi area is extended.
In terms of lead, overnight lead continued to fluctuate slightly upward trend, the introduction of a new US stimulus bill to restore market confidence, the downward trend of the dollar index continues, but it is still necessary to guard against the impact of the pullback of the US index on Lun lead. The overnight close of lead in Shanghai fell to a low level. As of last week, inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks in the previous period, consumption in the lower reaches was flat, and the upward power of lead in Shanghai was slightly insufficient, but the price of waste batteries, the decline of the US index, and new financial manufacturing data supported Shanghai lead. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to fluctuate at a high level.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead concussion primary regeneration and water sticking double harvest during the internal and external disc period
For zinc, overnight data showed that manufacturing in Europe, the US and Asia expanded rapidly in November, superimposing market expectations of further fiscal stimulus in the US and a solid recovery in the global economy. Overnight, Shanghai zinc recorded a small overcast line, the lower averages were arranged in multiple positions, and the upper Bollinger Road was pressed on the upper track. Fundamentals, the consumer side of the traditional off-season superimposed environmental protection inspection and other factors led to the weakening of galvanizing demand margin, but under the background of macroeconomic data and vaccine positive, TC continues to decline, Shanghai zinc still has upward space, but we need to guard against the risk of callback.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai Zinc still has upside room to guard against the risk of callback.
In terms of nickel, nickel prices are boosted by macro-positive high shocks, their own fundamentals are general, under the comprehensive effect of various factors, there is a lack of obvious unilateral trend, and it is expected that high shocks will still be dominant in the near future. In terms of fundamentals, the weak performance of 300 series stainless steel in the early stage continued to affect the price of nickel industry chain products, but market sentiment temporarily stabilized after the production reduction plans of Synchronize in both stainless steel plants and nickel pig iron plants. On the other hand, when the consumption of electrolytic nickel market is stable and the import performance is not good, the domestic inventory falls to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. As the long-short offset weakens the basic impact of nickel prices, the recent trend of the nickel market will be more vulnerable to loose macro sentiment. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel 119500-125000 yuan / ton, Lunni 16000-16650 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel prices fall back and stick to water to hold hard nickel pig iron can not escape the vortex of low prices.
In terms of black series, thread rose by 1%, hot coil by 2.2%, coking coal by 1.7%, coke by 1.6%, iron ore by 2.4%. In terms of iron ore, judging from the recent departure from Australia and Brazil, it is still difficult to see a substantial increase in the late arrival to Hong Kong. continue to support iron ore prices; In terms of threads, the current profit per ton of steel in the electric arc furnace steel mill is 73 yuan, and the profit space is difficult to be squeezed out immediately, and the operating rate of electric arc furnace is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation at the current level in the short term; in terms of hot rolls, according to SMM statistics, it is estimated this week that the total market resources will arrive at 160000 tons, down 20, 000 tons from the previous month, or 11%, and spot prices may continue to be strong.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] strong black price support is still dominated by high volatility in the short term.
Crude oil fell 1% in the previous period, and crude oil futures fell further on Tuesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies postponed a formal meeting to decide whether to increase production in January, leaving the market uncertain. The OPEC, made up of OPEC and other allies, including Russia, postponed negotiations on next year's production policy from Tuesday to Thursday, the source said. OPEC had planned to cut production by 2 million b / d from its current 7 million b / d from January.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 2%, while Shanghai silver rose 6%. Comex gold futures jumped more than 2% on Tuesday, rebounding from a five-month low hit in the previous trading day, as the dollar fell and bets on a stimulus package in the United States increased gold's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation. Silver prices surged more than 6 per cent. Analysts pointed out that gold prices rebounded due to "bargain buying", a bit like "Black Friday / Cyber Monday in the gold industry".
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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