SMM12 March 1: most of the outer metal market was green yesterday, and (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange surged to its highest level in more than seven years on Monday, with many cautious investors betting that a strong rally in copper prices in the coming days needs some respite as the end of the year approaches. On Monday, most LME metal prices hit new record highs in intraday trading, but many metals turned lower in afternoon trading. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. Lun Copper rose nearly 0.5%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, Lun Nickel rose slightly, Lunxi rose nearly 0.3%, Lun lead fell nearly 0.1%. On the domestic side, international copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai lead fell 2%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 2.7%, Shanghai Zinc fell 0.3%, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 1.6%.
On the copper side, economic data released at night, such as the Chicago PMI, in November and the monthly rate of existing home sales index in October, were weaker than expected, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said yesterday that although vaccines brought economic hope, there were still major challenges and uncertainties. Market risk sentiment turned pessimistic, investors were cautious again, all three major indexes of US stocks closed down at night, and the low of the dollar index rebounded to recover the 92 mark. A large number of bulls reduced positions and left the market at night, and copper futures fell. It is expected to be 7490-7570 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 56100-56600 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Market risk sentiment turned pessimistic, bulls reduced positions and copper fell during the departure period.
In terms of lead, the overnight negative correction of lead was affected by the profit-taking of many commodity trading funds and hedge funds at the end of the year (November is the end of the year), ushering in a brief correction, against the backdrop of positive overseas vaccines and the Biden administration in the United States. there is still room for upside. Shanghai lead closed down overnight, although the macro is warm, but the recent lead fundamentals have not come out of the overall weak trend, the sharp increase in trading volume has also brought some uncertainties to the Shanghai lead market, consolidation shock situation may continue.
[minutes of the SMM Morning meeting] lead fell sharply during the internal and external trading period, and the regenerated lead sticker expanded.
Zinc, overnight, zinc stop yang turn yin, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. Overnight lme inventory decreased by 700t to 220625 t, or 0.32% by 0.32%. Overnight the dollar rebounded to put pressure on the trend of Lun Zinc, Lun Zinc rushed high and fell back. Despite the progress made in the development of novel coronavirus's vaccine, the epidemic continues to ferment and the US economy has been damaged by the epidemic, uncertainty remains and market sentiment slows down. Overnight, a long shadow negative column was recorded in Shanghai, which broke through the upper rail of Bollinger Road, the lower 5 / 10-day moving average provided support, and the MACD positive column narrowed. The overnight outer disk dragged down the performance of Shanghai Zinc, and the funds were mainly fleeing after the release of bullish market sentiment. However, with the continuous warming of domestic macro indicators, the mine story continues to ferment, which still supports the price of zinc.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] supply-side support logic is still expected that zinc prices will remain strong and volatile in the short term.
In terms of nickel, fundamentals, the weak performance of 300 series stainless steel in the early stage continued to affect the price of nickel industry chain products, but market sentiment temporarily stabilized after the production reduction plans of Synchronize in both stainless steel plants and nickel pig iron plants. On the other hand, when the consumption of electrolytic nickel market is stable and the import performance is not good, the domestic inventory falls to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. As the long-short offset weakens the basic impact of nickel prices, the recent trend of the nickel market will be more vulnerable to loose macro sentiment. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel 119500-125000 yuan / ton, Lunni 16000-16650 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] High Nickel Pig Iron Price stalemate the price of laterite nickel ore has been greatly suppressed in a game between buyers and sellers.
Tin, the spot price rose with the futures price yesterday, and the market discount was slightly lower than last Friday. Yunxi raised the 2101 contract by 300,400 yuan / ton, the ordinary Yunzi discount by 300,600 yuan / ton, and the small brand discount by 1000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is relatively low, and the transactions of downstream and traders are weak. Today's forecast: last night Shanghai tin fell sharply, today's spot is expected to follow the decline, the main operating range is expected to be 145500-147000 yuan / ton.
"[12.1 Tin Price Forecast Today]
In terms of black series, thread fell nearly 1%, hot coil fell nearly 0.2%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.8%, coking coal rose nearly 2.8%, coke rose nearly 0.8%, iron ore fell nearly 0.8%, and iron ore, in the near future, the demand for lump ore with good performance and price and mainstream medium-and high-grade sinter is still expected to remain high, and continue to provide some support to ore prices in the short term. In terms of threads, as the current terminal demand has also been hit by weather factors, the weak and stable situation on the supply side may be able to achieve the "effect" of reducing the price decline, but the overall trend of weakening the fundamentals of rebar has not changed; in terms of hot rolls, in the general direction, the fundamentals of hot rolls are intact, and even show signs of improvement, forming a strong support for the spot price of hot rolls.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] there is a strong support for black prices.
Crude oil fell nearly 0.6% in the previous period, and oil prices fell slightly on Monday, amid concerns that the world's major oil producers discussed extending the current sharp production reduction agreement during this week's negotiations. But the price of benchmark crude oil rose strongly this month on hopes that the novel coronavirus vaccine will be available soon. Ministers and representatives at the meeting said on Monday that there was a broad consensus among (OPEC) members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries that it was necessary to extend the existing production cuts for another three months from January next year, provided that allies in the OPEC alliance also supported the move.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.2%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 1%. Comex gold futures closed lower on Monday, the lowest close since early July and down nearly 6% in November. Optimism that the vaccine will drive a rapid economic recovery has fuelled enthusiasm among stock market investors and undermined gold's safe-haven appeal. Us Health and Human Services Secretary Azar (Alex Azar) said on Monday that the two vaccines first developed could be available for vaccination in the United States before Christmas. Vaccine-related good news puts pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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