Macro Roundup (Nov 30)

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar index fell on Friday, hitting its lowest level in almost three months, after strong economic data from China favored commodity currencies over safe havens and equity markets continued their rally.

The dollar has fallen more than 2.2% so far this month as global market sentiment has surged following Joe Biden’s election victory and positive COVID-19 vaccine progress, which reduced demand for the safe-haven currency.

On Wall Street, stock futures dipped in overnight trading on Sunday as the market looks set to finish November with historically strong gains.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 80 points. S&P 500 futures traded 0.1% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%.

The blue-chip Dow has risen 12.9% so far this month, on pace for its best monthly performance since January 1987, as promising vaccine developments boosted confidence of a smooth economic reopening. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have climbed 11.3% and 11.9%, respectively, in November, both on track to post their biggest monthly advance since April.

Oil prices were mixed on Friday but remained on course for a fourth straight week of gains ahead of an OPEC+ meeting early this week.

Brent crude for January rose 19 cents, or 0.4%, to $47.99 a barrel and the more active February contract gained 24 cents to $48.03.

West Texas Intermediate, meanwhile, was down 40 cents, or 0.9%, at $45.32.

Both benchmarks are up about 7% over the week after encouraging news on potential COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca and others. However, questions have been raised over AstraZeneca’s “vaccine for the world”, with several scientists sounding caution over the trial results.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia are leaning towards delaying next year’s planned increase in oil output, said three sources close to the OPEC+ group.

OPEC+ was planning to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January - about 2% of global consumption - after record supply cuts this year. OPEC+ ministers are due to meet from Monday.

Gold slumped 2%, breaking below the key $1,800 support level to a near five-month trough on Friday, as growing optimism about a quick vaccine-fuelled economic recovery and a smooth White House transition powered share market to fresh records.

Spot gold slid 1.4% to $1,785.11 per ounce, earlier falling to its lowest since July 6 at $1,773.10 an ounce.

The metal has shed about 4.7% so far this week, the most since the week of March 13. U.S. gold futures slipped 1.2% to $1,784 an ounce.

“As soon as prices touched below the key $1,800 level, it triggered a sell-off. It is probable that prices might test the $1,750 level given we have a strong fundamental reason like the vaccine,” said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam.

Further weighing on gold, U.S. equities raced to a record on the vaccine optimism and as investors bet on calmer global trade under a Joe Biden administration in the United States.

Key economic data slated for release today include China’s official manufacturing PMI for November, Germany actual retail sales for October and consumer price index (CPI) for November and US pending home sales for October after seasonal adjustments.