Platinum futures swing wildly, spot market trading moderate [SMM daily review]

ARM released its latest annual results. Core earnings rose 19% year-on-year to ZAR 3.2 billion, net cash increased by 54% to ZAR 10.2 billion, and the group declared a final dividend of ZAR 7 per share. The group’s cash generation capacity improved markedly. Tsundzukani Mhlanga, CFO of ARM, noted that cash inflows reached ZAR 4.2 billion in the reporting period, a sharp jump from only ZAR 45 million in the prior year. Phillip Tobias, CEO of ARM, also announced that the board has approved a ZAR 15.2 billion investment to develop the Bokoni PGM project. Hosting South Africa’s second-largest PGM resource base, the project is expected to have a payback period of around 6.3 years and serves as a key growth asset for the group’s PGM business.

South Africa’s PGM mine supply posted a seemingly robust recovery in the first half of this year. However, the latest assessment from Heraeus Precious Metals warns that this should not be interpreted as the start of a long‑term production growth cycle for South Africa’s PGM sector. According to the production index from Statistics South Africa, domestic PGM mine output rose roughly 12% year‑on‑year in H1 2026. Mine productivity increased by merely around 1.5% over the same period, indicating that the bulk of output growth stemmed from the low base caused by heavy rainfall and floods in H1 2025 rather than structural productivity improvements at mines.

[SMM Flash] South Africa’s electricity system continued to show improved generation reliability through the winter period, according to a September 7 update from the Minerals Council South Africa. Eskom’s average Energy Availability Factor reached 75.6% in July before easing to 71.2% in August, with the decline largely attributed to increased planned maintenance rather than deteriorating generation performance. Electricity demand nevertheless remained weak, with August peak demand of 28,498 MW well below the 34,029 MW recorded in August 2021. For South Africa’s electricity-intensive PGM mines, concentrators and smelters, improved power availability reduces the immediate risk of operating disruptions. However, the Minerals Council said electricity costs for the mining sector increased by approximately 1,185% between 2003 and 2025, underlining continued structural cost pressure despite better supply reliability. Improved generation therefore supports operational stability but does not remove electricity-price pressure on PGM margins.