Primary aluminium inventories shrank 14,000 mt on week

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Metro Mining expects bauxite production to reach 6.6–7.1 million WMT in 2026, with plans to further expand capacity to 8 million WMT per year. The company targets 5 million WMT of production in the second half of 2026, supported by low strip ratios, short average haul distances of 9 km to port, and 2H delivered costs of around US$30/dmt. The Bauxite Hills operation continues to benefit from favorable operating conditions, including 0.5 m average overburden with no blasting, feed grades of 48–50% alumina, product grades of 51–53% alumina, yields of 60–80%, and moisture below 10% for more than seven months annually. Metro Mining has also locked in 80% of its freight requirements for 2026–27, hedged US$75 million at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.65, and reported normal diesel inventory levels.

[Full-Scale US-Iran War Risks Climb, Strengthening Short-Term Upward Drivers for Aluminum Prices] Overall assessment suggests that with the volatile Middle East situation, persistent market concerns over interest rate hikes, and continuously recovering supply, the destocking trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East, the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the status of China’s downstream processing orders.