The overseas primary aluminum market continued its weak tone this week. Soft demand remained the core issue across all major markets, with offer prices generally under pressure in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the United States and China. Market activity was muted, buyers and sellers remained locked in a standoff, and the market lacked clear directional guidance overall.
Japan: MJP negotiations continue; market sentiment stays subdued
The Japanese market remained quiet this week, with the focus still on the progress of Q4 MJP negotiations. Some sellers are still negotiating premium levels with buyers, but the two sides diverge significantly on price expectations and talks are progressing slowly. As a result, the MJP market stays depressed, with limited spot transactions heard. Most participants are adopting a wait-and-see stance until quarterly pricing is settled before acting. The standoff between the two sides has left the market without transactional momentum.
Vietnam: Demand exists but participation is insufficient; prices hover at low levels
Although some demand was present in the Vietnamese market this week, market activity remained limited. Notably, only a few sellers participated in quoting during buyer inquiries, indicating clearly insufficient market participation. Buyers and sellers struggled to connect effectively, and transactions were scarce.
With limited support from the demand side and weak willingness among sellers to quote, local prices stayed at relatively low levels. Combined with waning trader enthusiasm and slower terminal procurement, the premium level in the Vietnamese market is unlikely to gain effective support in the near term and is expected to remain at the low end.
United States: Market weak and stagnant; trading volume limited
The US market performed weakly this week, appearing largely stagnant with limited trading volume. Although some high-priced cargo occasionally traded, volumes were small and insufficient to effectively lift the overall market.
The demand side offered no bright spots, with downstream purchasing driven mainly by essential needs and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Both buyers and sellers are awaiting clearer signals. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term, lacking a trend-driven move.
South Korea: Market relatively chaotic; offer prices continue to decline
The South Korean market remained relatively chaotic this week, with offer prices extending their downward trend. The supply structure is complex, with quotes for aluminum ingots from different sources varying notably and quoted ranges widely dispersed. Buyers are pressing hard for lower prices, while a significant gap remains between sellers' willingness to sell and buyers' acceptance levels, slowing the pace of transactions.
With no marked improvement on the demand side, the market lacks supportive factors, and the price center is expected to keep shifting lower. Going forward, attention should be paid to the digestion of low-priced cargo and changes in buyer acceptance.
Thailand: Rebound lacks momentum; offers return to a downward track
The Thai market saw a modest rebound last week, but it did not last. Offer prices began drifting lower again from the start of this week. The earlier rebound was more of a short-term sentiment repair, lacking sustained demand support.
As the market reverted to fundamentals, sellers loosened their quotes again to facilitate shipments amid missing orders and cautious downstream purchasing, dragging the overall price center lower. In the near term, the weak pattern in the Thai market is unlikely to change, and prices may still have room to fall further.
China: Weak demand; both USD and RMB prices cut
The Chinese market also came under pressure this week, with both USD and RMB prices declining. The core reason remains overly weak demand — the market lacks effective buyers, inquiries are scarce, and volumes are difficult to scale up.
Sellers' selling pressure continues to accumulate, forcing repeated price concessions. In the near term, unless demand shows visible improvement, the Yangshan premium is expected to remain weak.
![Ex-China aluminum market remains weak, spot offers in major markets fall under pressure [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/risnW20251217171650.jpg)
