This week, the overseas aluminum market overall remained in the doldrums. Weak demand continued to be the core issue across major markets, with offer prices in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the US, and China generally under pressure. Trading activity was sluggish, and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persisted, with the market lacking clear directional guidance overall.
Japan: MJP negotiations continue, market sentiment remains subdued
The Japanese market remained relatively quiet this week, with focus still on the progress of Q4 MJP negotiations. Some sellers are still negotiating premiums with buyers, but the two sides have significant differences in price expectations, and negotiations are progressing slowly. As a result, the MJP market remains subdued, with limited spot market transactions reported. Most participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, waiting for quarterly pricing to be finalized before taking action. The stalemate between the two sides has left the market lacking trading momentum.
Vietnam: Demand exists but participation is insufficient, prices linger at low levels
Although there was some demand in the Vietnamese market this week, market activity remained limited. Notably, only some sellers participated in quoting during buyer inquiries, and market participation was clearly insufficient. Buyers and sellers struggled to connect effectively, resulting in very few transactions.
With limited demand-side support and weak willingness among sellers to quote, local prices remained at relatively low levels. Coupled with waning trader participation and a slowdown in end-user procurement pace, premium levels in the Vietnamese market are unlikely to find effective support in the short term and are expected to remain at low levels.
US: Market sluggish and stagnant, trading volume limited
The US market showed sluggish performance this week, remaining largely stagnant with limited trading volume. Although some high-priced cargoes were occasionally traded, the transaction volumes were relatively small and insufficient to provide meaningful momentum to the overall market.
The demand side lacked highlights, with downstream procurement mainly driven by immediate needs and strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Both buyers and sellers are waiting for clearer signals, and prices are expected to move sideways in the short term without a clear trend.
South Korea: Market relatively chaotic, offer prices continue to decline
The South Korean market remained relatively chaotic this week, with offer prices continuing to trend downward. The supply structure was complex, with notable differences in quotes for aluminum ingots from different sources and a widely dispersed quotation range. Buyers showed a strong tendency to push for lower prices, while there was a significant gap between sellers' willingness to sell and buyers' acceptance levels, slowing transaction progress.
With no clear improvement on the demand side, the market lacks positive support, and the price center is expected to continue shifting downward. Attention should be paid to the absorption of low-priced cargoes and changes in buyer acceptance levels.
Thailand: Insufficient rebound momentum, offers back on downward trajectory
The Thai market saw a slight rebound last week, but it was short-lived. From the beginning of this week, offer prices have been falling continuously again. The earlier rebound was more a reflection of short-term sentiment repair, lacking sustained demand support.
As the market returned to fundamentals, with orders absent and downstream purchasing cautious, sellers loosened their quotes again to facilitate shipments, and the overall price center moved lower once more. In the short term, the weak pattern in the Thai market is unlikely to change, and prices may still have downside.
China: Weak demand, both USD and RMB prices lowered
The Chinese market was also under pressure this week, with both USD and RMB prices showing a downward trend. The core reason remains that current demand is too weak, the market lacks effective buyers, inquiries are scarce, and transactions are hard to scale up.
Suppliers' shipment pressure continued to accumulate, and quotes had to be repeatedly lowered. In the short term, if there is no clear improvement on the demand side, the Yangshan premium is expected to remain in the doldrums.
[Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
Data source: SMM
![[SMM Analysis] Overseas Primary Aluminum Market Remains Weak; Offer Prices Under Pressure Across Major Markets](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/PerRJ20251217171650.jpg)
