SMM11 March 11: most of the outer disk metal market was red yesterday, and Lun Copper rebounded slightly to a 29-month high on Tuesday, as the prospect of an effective du vaccine for the new crown disease was encouraging, boosting hopes for economic recovery and copper demand. The dollar also recovered some of Monday's losses, making metals more expensive for buyers of other currencies, depressing metal prices. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30, Lunni was up nearly 0.4%, Lun Aluminum was up nearly 0.1%, Lun Xi was flat, Lun Zn was down nearly 0.3%, Lun lead was down nearly 0.4%, Lun Copper was down nearly 0.5%, and domestic metals were up and down each other. Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.6%, and Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.7%. The dollar continued to weaken in the morning, with the dollar index falling 0.09 per cent to 92.74 yesterday as market participants refused to push the dollar higher because of uncertainty about how or when the vaccine would be launched.
Copper, boosted by expectations that the vaccine will soon be launched on the market at night, international oil prices rose collectively, and NYMEX crude oil futures hit a two-month high. The election of Biden as president of the United States is conducive to the control of the epidemic, and the market risk appetite continues to recover, but there are still differences between the two parties in the United States on the scale of the economic stimulus bill, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and the dollar index fluctuates greatly at night, causing some interference to copper futures.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Dollar volatility Copper fluctuates sharply at night
In terms of aluminum, on the one hand, the results of the US election tend to be confirmed, and risk aversion has weakened; on the other hand, the emergence of du vaccine for coronary disease has greatly boosted market confidence in downstream consumption, which has been driven by overseas commodities and stock markets. Shanghai Aluminum, low inventory is still in the fundamentals to give the market strong confidence, expected aluminum prices will still be strong volatility, we need to continue to pay attention to the basis changes and changes in short sentiment.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Vaccine stocks continue to fall in Shanghai aluminum night market to try to push up.
In terms of lead, overnight, Lun lead closed the positive pillar, continuing to pay attention to the impact of fluctuations in the dollar index on the market. Shanghai lead closed up overnight, downstream procurement slightly improved, but before winter reserves, we still need to guard against the impact of factors such as a slightly wider supply in the spot market on lead prices. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 25-75 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] higher demand for lead during the internal and external trading period boosted the price of waste batteries.
For zinc, overnight non-ferrous disk rose, market expectations of further fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, the prospect of superimposed vaccines on the market encouraged the zinc market, but there is still uncertainty in the global economic recovery to limit the upside of Zinc. In terms of zinc in Shanghai, there is a shortage of supply at the mine end and a high spot supply to maintain a high rising water to support the upward price of zinc. However, according to SMM research, consumption of galvanized and die-casting plates at the consumer side has weakened, while the output of smelters at the supply side has maintained a high level, which is expected to limit the upward space for zinc in Shanghai. It is expected to maintain the concussion pattern in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] High spot concussion in zinc market Shanghai zinc gave up some of the gains of the day before yesterday.
In terms of nickel, the fundamentals of 300 series stainless steel show a weak impact on the price of nickel industry chain products, the weak atmosphere may continue, but the negative degree of stainless steel production is still limited, in addition, the domestic electrolytic nickel supply will gradually tighten and the stock reduction trend will continue, the overall fundamentals establish a high nickel price shock pattern, in addition, we need to pay more attention to the macro impact.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price is high and volatile, spot trading atmosphere is weak, stainless steel price is temporarily stable, transaction is still poor.
Zinc, yesterday's market discount did not change much from the previous day, Yunxi 2101 contract up 400,600 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 300,700 yuan / ton, small brand discount 800,1000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is weak, and the volatility of the futures price leads to the warming of the wait-and-see atmosphere downstream. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin concussion, pay attention to the enthusiasm of shippers, it is expected that today's spot mainstream range of 145500-147000 yuan / ton.
"[11.11 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
On the black side, the thread fell nearly 0.1%, the hot coil fell nearly 0.3%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.1%, coke fell nearly 0.4%, coking coal fell nearly 0.3%, iron ore rose nearly 0.7%, hot coil, according to SMM statistics, this week estimated that the total market resources arrival volume of 227000 tons, an increase of 18000 tons, an increase of 9%. Overall, there has been a slight increase in the volume of goods in the mainstream market this week, mainly in Shanghai and Lecong market. Among them, in the Shanghai market, according to SMM, only about 50% of the resources actually remain for sale in this market, and the other 50% of the resources are sold in the surrounding markets after arriving at the Shanghai wharf, so the actual amount of resources in this market is still on the low side. Lecong market, from the feedback of arrival data, the volume of arrival has increased steadily this week, mainly because, under the relatively stable arrival of resources of Wangang, Liugang and other long-term associations, the new production line resources of Fangchenggang base of Liugang began to be put into the market one after another.
[SMM Morning meeting View] rising momentum is rapid and fundamental risks are gradually accumulating.
Crude oil rose nearly 2.1% in the previous period, major breakthroughs in vaccines continued to boost market optimism, superimposed a higher-than-expected decline in API inventories, and Saudi Arabia and Iraq confirmed their adherence to the OPEC+ oil production reduction agreement, international oil prices continued to soar, and US oil and cloth oil rebounded by US $4 in two days. At the beginning of the day, domestic crude oil was collectively floating red, but there were no signs of strong replenishment for the time being. LU quickly rose 3% to lead the rise.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1%, while Shanghai silver was flat, while COMEX gold futures rose on Tuesday after a sharp fall in the previous session, supporting safe-haven gold on concerns about the global economic recovery and expectations of further fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Analysts point out that 24 hours after Pfizer news reshaped the market, gold is trying to find a balance. Gold prices are expected to continue to rise, but this will take longer. The fundamentals of gold are still quite favorable. Stimulus measures are likely to be introduced, and after the introduction of the vaccine, there will be reflation.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
