SMM News: a few days ago, sponsored by the Hua'an Fund, "on the Dow Gold 2020 asset allocation high-end summit" was held in Shanghai. The participants carried out in-depth analysis and discussion around the macroeconomic trend, the influencing factors and trends of gold prices, as well as investment strategies in the domestic market. Market participants believe that in the current global macro context, gold prices will benefit, gold is still in a good investment cycle.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, said at the meeting that the epidemic makes the global economic recovery slow, the US economic recession is easy to recover, and its potential growth momentum may be insufficient. Although China's economy outperformed in the first three quarters, it also faced downward pressure, and the gradual cooling of the real estate market was the main source of downward pressure. In this context, the logic of large types of asset allocation changes with time, the proportion of financial asset allocation expands, and incremental assets will flow to equity, funds and bonds. Gold is not only a risk aversion, but also an investment. Since the 1970s, the world has entered the era of over-issuance of paper money, and the price of gold has risen sharply against this background.
In the view of Xu Zhiyan, assistant general manager of Hua'an Fund, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy may last for a long time. Gold is a natural currency, paper money era, electronic money era is a major trend, but gold is still the anchor to measure the value of money. Investment in gold has made good returns in the past five years, and global gold demand is growing rapidly, with global gold ETF growth exceeding 1000 tons since the beginning of the year. Based on the current analysis framework, gold has long-term investment value. On the whole, in the next five years, gold is still in a good investment cycle. He is positive and optimistic about the performance of gold in 2021 and suggests that investors allocate gold from the perspective of asset allocation.
Jiang Shu, chief analyst of Jinyang Mining Industry, believes that under the COVID-19 epidemic, the financial attribute of gold is incisively and vividly. Looking forward to the precious metal prices in the coming year, there may be two scenarios: first, the global economic growth rate is pessimistic, that is, the process of global resumption of work and production is interrupted, and precious metal prices will rise due to heightened risk aversion. However, similar to the sharp decline in risk aversion in mid-early March this year, international gold prices are likely to hit highs. Second, the global economy is neutral, that is, the global economic development coexists with the epidemic, and the global quantitative easing policy will not be reversed, but the possibility of further increase is reduced, and the overall price of precious metals is strong but the rate of increase is limited.
According to Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist at Societe Generale Securities, the analytical framework of negative correlation between US real interest rates and gold prices is still valid. The Federal Reserve is "frantically printing money", the credit of the US dollar is damaged, the depreciation of the US dollar, the gold of the super-sovereign currency will benefit, and gold is expected to play its monetary attribute and risk aversion function. In the short term, the trend of gold prices in the next six months resonates with the cyclical recovery of the global economy, and the cyclical value is revalued. Looking forward to the medium and long term, China's equity asset allocation will be in a period of strategic opportunity for continuous improvement, which is reflected in the double-cycle-driven Jugla cycle and the medium-term trend of active depreciation of the US dollar. As for the investment strategy, he believes that the economic recovery and the depreciation of the dollar are conducive to the return of the value of the investment style, while being on guard against investment risks such as the global economic growth downturn.
