SMM11 March 10: the outer metal market went up and down yesterday. Lun Copper closed down on Monday, but hit a more than two-year high in intraday trading because of news that novel coronavirus had made progress in vaccine development and investors were optimistic about global trade after Biden was elected president of the United States. Analysts pointed out that after the news of the vaccine, there must have been excitement in the market. This will further boost booming commodities such as copper, but there is still a long way to go before the vaccine is delivered. I think the market will calm down again. It will take us a long time to profit from the vaccine. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lunni was down nearly 0.5%, Lunxi was down nearly 0.3%, Lun lead was down nearly 0.1%, Lun aluminum and Lun zinc were up slightly, and Lun copper was up nearly 0.1%. Domestically, shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.9%, shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.4%, shanghai copper rose nearly 0.2%, shanghai aluminum and shanghai lead rose nearly 0.1%, and shanghai tin fell nearly 0.6%.
In terms of copper, significant progress was made in vaccine research and development yesterday when Pfizer and BioNTech announced that the effective rate of novel coronavirus vaccine was more than 90%. The market was boosted by both the general election and the vaccine, pushing up stock markets across the board in Europe and the United States, with several stock indexes hitting record highs. The performance of copper futures at night was volatile, and the good news enhanced the optimism of investors, with the range rising sharply, reaching a multi-year high. At the end of the day, affected by the rise of the US index, the decline was obvious, giving up all the gains at night.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Vaccine is good for soaring oil. Copper night market fluctuates obviously.
In terms of aluminum, the overnight Shanghai Aluminum main 2012 contract opened high at 14945 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the session, the position increased and broke through the Wanwu mark, with a high of 15080 yuan / ton, followed by a narrow shock in the first line of 15050 yuan / ton, and fell in the second half of the period. The low was around 14800 yuan / ton, and the night trading closed at 14855 yuan / ton, down 0.1%. Shanghai aluminum fell back at night, its position increased slightly, the spot monthly contract was relatively strong, and the monthly difference expanded sharply in recent months. It is expected that today's Shanghai aluminum main contract operating range is 14700-15100 yuan / ton.
[SMM Aluminium Morning News] Shanghai Aluminum re-measured the Wanwu pass and fell back to the top of Lunal.
Lead, lead negative, continue to pay attention to the impact of fluctuations in the dollar index on the market. Shanghai lead closed up overnight, but before winter reserves, we still need to be aware of the impact of factors such as a slightly wider supply in the spot market on lead prices. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 25-75 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Lun lead rushes high and falls down, Shanghai lead high shock regeneration reduces production and closes up.
In terms of zinc, investors were optimistic about global trade after Biden was elected president of the United States, superimposed by good news of progress in the development of a new crown vaccine to boost short-term attention to macro guidance. In terms of zinc in Shanghai, according to SMM research, social inventory has increased, transactions in the spot market are light, and tension at the supply side has not yet been transmitted to the smelter, taking into account the boost of macro good news, Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the near future.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight spot market transactions are light considering market sentiment. Shanghai Zinc is expected to arrange wide width.
Nickel, stimulated by the news that novel coronavirus vaccine has made remarkable progress, the three major stock indexes reached record highs last night, US and European stocks soared, and safe-haven metal gold and silver fell sharply. However, it will take a long time for the news to be fed back to the fundamentals of the major metals, and the stimulation of the information side may gradually cool down, and the possibility of slightly driving up the metal still exists, but we should not blindly catch up with it. Recently, macro events have occurred frequently, and commodities have been affected by ups and downs. Today, we will pay attention to the position pressure of Shanghai Nickel 119000.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Jinchuan Nickel Shengshui continues to receive goods at a high level. High Nickel Pig Iron transaction focus has shifted down, but the stalemate still exists.
Tin, yesterday, the spot price of Shanghai and tin followed the downward adjustment under the guidance of futures prices, and the transaction atmosphere was general. Smelters and traders were more active in shipping, but there was still a certain wait-and-see mood downstream. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin concussion, pay attention to the enthusiasm of shippers, which may affect the discount, the mainstream spot range is expected to be 145500-147000 yuan / ton.
"[11.10 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
In terms of black, thread rose by nearly 0.4%, hot coil by nearly 0.1%, stainless steel by nearly 0.9%, coke by nearly 0.2%, coking coal by nearly 0.3%, iron ore by nearly 2.8%, and hot coil by nearly 2.8%. According to the latest tracking of SMM, the planned hot-rolled commodity volume of 35 mainstream hot-rolled steel mills surveyed totaled 10.4349 million tons in November, an increase of 0.1% over October. The hot coil output is basically in a high stable state, and the pressure on the supply side is still bearable. On the demand side, various data feedback, sheet demand continues to exceed expectations, apparent demand also remains high during the year, superimposed overseas manufacturing orders return and short-term continuity, driving coil demand to remain high. In view of this, there is basically no problem with the fundamentals of the plate in November. At the same time, market sentiment, boosted by threads, continues to rise, and the speed of stack removal is more optimistic, prompting the overall plate coil market to develop in a warmer direction. Spot prices are boosted by this, and there is a good chance that the upward trend of shock will continue.
[SMM Morning meeting Internal View] Steel prices are rising rapidly and spot fundamentals are still strong.
Crude oil rose nearly 4.4% in the last period, and the market's risk appetite was greatly boosted by the arrival of the election and the news of Pfizer vaccine. The outlook for demand in the crude oil market was instantly lit up, superimposed by the extension of the supply-side production reduction agreement and the possibility of supply disruption in Libya, with oil prices rising as much as 10% in intraday trading, basically recovering the decline after late October. Us oil prices surged about 8 per cent on Monday, the biggest one-day rise in more than five months, after traders sought to unwind bearish bets after Pfizer announced satisfactory results for its novel coronavirus vaccine.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 3.8%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 6.1%. Comex gold futures fell 5% on Monday, as news of the first successful post-trial of novel coronavirus vaccine prompted investors to sell safe-haven gold and flock to riskier assets. Analysts point out that the news really exceeded everyone's best-case predictions. Previously, there was growing concern that we might not be able to get a strong vaccine, so this triggered safe-haven trading, which for gold marked a massive withdrawal of safe-haven investment.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
