14th Five-Year Plan Communique: Summary and Market Impact

SHANGHAI, Oct 30 (SMM) — The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 26 to 29, 2020. The communique of the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was released on October 29. The communique was passed at the session held in Beijing.

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, delivered an important speech at the session, according to the communique.

The plenary session heard and discussed a work report that Xi delivered on behalf of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it said.

The session also adopted the CPC Central Committee's proposals for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035. Xi explained the draft document to the plenary session.

CPC has charted the course for China's development in the next 15 years to guide the country's march towards modernization.

Details of the blueprint were unveiled in a communique issued after the conclusion of the four-day fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee on Thursday. The roles of innovation, real economy, a strong domestic market, rural vitalization and green development were underscored for China's growth.

Summary:

1. Long-term goal for 2035: GDP per capita reaches the level of moderately developed countries.

2. The GDP for 2020 is expected to exceed one trillion yuan.

3. Implement a national strategy in response to aging population.

4. Take scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance as a strategic support for national development and accelerate technological construction.

5. It is expected that the annual grain output in 2020 will be stable for five consecutive years at more than 1,300 billion catties.

6. Accelerate the modernisation of national defence.

7. Prioritise the development of agriculture and rural areas.

8. Speed up the development of a modern industrial system and promote the optimisation and upgrading of the economy.

Market Response

Guosheng Macro

The "14th Five-Year Plan" has 7 major differences:

1. Positioning: Needs to connect with the long-term goal of 2035.

2. Characteristics of the era: We are facing unprecedented changes. In the short term, the Covid-19 pandemic and Sino-US relations will be a major disturbance.

3. Goal setting: Pay more attention to soft indicators such as the quality of development, better livelihood, modernization of national governance and national defence.

4. Development concept: To shift to a "double cycle", expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption.

5. Important strategies: The "14th Five-Year Plan" basically continues the innovation-driven development strategy of the "13th Five-Year Plan", such as strong network, strong manufacturing digital China, and healthy China, but the new Five-Year Plan emphasizes on transportation and technology, as well as strengthening of population aging strategy.

6. Reform ideas: Focus on the reform of the property rights system and the market-oriented allocation of factors.

7. Industry direction: Focus more on innovation and upgrading of the industry chain, especially on industries like technology, energy, military and national defence, modern agriculture, as well as the digital economy and silver economy.

Impact on A shares

Guosheng Macro:

“Looking at the market performance after the end of the four Fifth Plenary Sessions (15th-19th National Congress of the CPC) since 2000, the stock market has seen upward and downward swing.

Medium and small caps stocks as well as low and medium valuation stocks outperformed the broad market in most periods, and high valuation stocks underperformed the broad market in most periods. “

"14th Five-Year Plan" five major industrial policy main lines

Guotai Jun An:

“Technological innovation is the main line of the core industrial policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan. This is expected to fall into two aspects- the ‘autonomous and controllable’ of key core technologies and the digital economy.

In addition, the focus on ‘comprehensive promotion of consumption’ is mainly about supply creating demand. Also the concept of "green development" has been strongly emphasized, and "energy revolution" is one of the three major points of industrial upgrading. Hence environmental protection policies will become institutionalized.

Fourthly, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the core goal of industrial upgrading is to accelerate the development of a modern industrial system, with focus on transportation, energy revolution and digital development.”

On this basis the following areas of development will be of increased attention during the new Five-Year Plan period:

• New energy under the concept of green development
• The explosive growth of new infrastructure such as digital economy, big data, and industrial Internet
• Healthcare and “happiness industries” such as medicine and tourism
• Accelerating agricultural industrialization and land reform
• Relying on metropolitan agglomerations and metropolitan circles, under a more agglomerated regional development approach, traditional infrastructure accurately makes up for shortcomings.