SMM10, March 19: the metal on Friday's outer plate is green and fat, and Lomalco closed higher on Friday, hitting an intraday high of more than 17 months, as strong demand from China, a major consumer, expectations of rising economic growth and demand in the rest of the world, and a weaker dollar all contributed to the buying momentum. As of 09:35, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.9%, Shanghai copper and nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, domestically, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.5%.
In terms of copper, the number of new cases of the global novel coronavirus epidemic continues to increase, and the number of confirmed cases is now nearly 40 million. The rebound of the epidemic has made the economic outlook more uncertain. In addition, the new round of economic stimulus bill in the United States and Brexit negotiations have not yet made effective progress, and the continued recovery of risk aversion has led to a rebound in the dollar and obvious pressure on copper futures.
"[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper may be subjected to pressure callback during the period of the impact of the second outbreak of the epidemic.
Aluminum, after entering the autumn and winter season, be on guard against the impact of a possible second outbreak of the epidemic on market trading sentiment. In addition, foreign countries pay attention to the US election process and the remarks and plans on economic development in Europe and the United States, while China pays attention to inventory changes in the fourth quarter, consumer feedback and actual new investment in supply-side production. The recent trend of aluminum prices has remained strong under low inventory.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] production restriction during the heating season is mainly due to the recent rebound in recycled aluminum consumption in the carbon industry.
In terms of lead, Lun lead received four consecutive negative overnight, vigilant against the risk of lead prices weakening due to the negative impact of the epidemic. Overnight Shanghai lead high opened after diving, the market is sluggish, falling below the 14300 yuan first line, short-term concern about the cost support line of recycled lead. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 100-150 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the fourth consecutive drop of lead in London, Shanghai and Shanghai, the social inventory of lead ingots continues to increase.
On the zinc side, market volatility on the outlook for the US fiscal stimulus package is superimposed by a surge in global coronavirus cases and pre-election unease in the US, and risk aversion is on the rise. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term. In terms of zinc in Shanghai, post-holiday SMM survey shows that domestic social inventory has increased, and consumption of galvanized plates in the lower reaches is slightly weaker, dragging down the trend of zinc prices, but TC continues to decline, mine-end supply releases tightening signals, providing bottom support for zinc prices, and is expected to be finished in a narrow range in Shanghai in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc fundamental contradictions are not significant yet and short-term narrow-band arrangement is expected.
In terms of nickel, from the perspective of the fundamentals of the nickel market, many positive factors still prevail, and nickel ore prices are strong. After the Philippines enters the rainy season in the fourth quarter, supply will continue to be tight, while nickel pig iron will be supported by raw materials and continue to stalemate with downstream bargaining; the demand of pure nickel itself slowly returns to the superimposed low level of imports, domestic supply is likely to decrease, and will also be tight in the later stage. In the case of the fundamental direction has not changed, macro sentiment is still the key to the rebound height of the nickel market. This week, Lunni is expected to be 15000-15850 US dollars / ton and Shanghai Nickel 116500-121500 yuan / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price is strong fundamentals upstream a small increase in inventory of Dorido stainless steel affects market sentiment
On the tin side, after experiencing a sharp rise during the National Day, Lunxi has recently maintained a slightly fluctuating upward rhythm, supported by a weak dollar, and supported by a general decline in output in the main producing countries as a result of the epidemic. Although the trend of Lunxi remains strong, the huge shipping pressure from smelters and traders after the National Day holiday has had an impact on the popularity of tin noodles in Shanghai. It is expected that there will be a significant improvement in the difficulty of lifting and sticking water before the shipper's shipping pressure is reduced.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the reduction of global supply supports the downstream trend of Lunxi, which leads to the expansion of Shanghai Xisheng discount.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 1.1%, hot coil rose nearly 0.9%, stainless steel rose nearly 2.3%, coke rose nearly 2.3%, coking coal rose nearly 1%, iron ore rose nearly 1.4%. Last week, with the market excitement stimulated by various good news after the festival gradually cooled, although the thread period prices are obviously higher than before the festival, but the overall pattern is slightly weak. Among them, the spot market is under the double pressure of high inventory and high output, while the explosive power of post-holiday demand is gradually weakened, the decline is relatively more obvious. In the later stage, the supply side is likely to remain weak and stable under the restrictions of various environmental protection policies and poor profitability, while the demand side still has some support in the short term below the peak season. While inventory is high, cost support is strong, spot fundamentals are in a delicate equilibrium, and there is a good chance that they will remain volatile in the short term. But as the weather turns colder, demand weakens and the equilibrium is gradually broken, prices will go up and down again.
"views of SMM Steel Morning meeting on October 19th
Crude oil rose nearly 1.4 per cent in the previous period, and oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Monday. China will release quarterly economic data that are expected to show economic recovery, offsetting concerns about repeated outbreaks and increased supply. On the news side, discussions last week by OPEC+ 's joint technical committee showed that the outlook for the oil market was bleaker than expected a month ago. A glut could threaten OPEC+ 's plan to reduce production cuts from next year, when the alliance implemented record production cuts this year and plans to increase supply by 2 million b / d from 2021.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.5%. Precious metals fell on Friday, and analysts believe that the main reason for the decline in gold this week is the appreciation of the dollar. Gold futures markets have generally fluctuated in a narrow range this week due to volatility in expectations of the US fiscal stimulus package, a surge in global coronavirus cases and pre-election unease in the US. The gold market is clearly waiting for a new catalyst to determine the future direction.
As of 09:35, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
