SMM: the global economy was hit by the epidemic in 2020. For the real estate industry, the central government adheres to the regulation and control policy of housing speculation and urban policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

From the performance of the market end, the real estate sales market fell off a cliff in February and March, but with the control of the epidemic and the recovery of demand, the market gradually rebounded and remained stable after April, and the market volume and prices fell significantly in the first quarter. with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation in the second quarter, supply and demand recovered, and the market rebounded to a certain extent.

What is clear is that house prices in first-tier cities are still rising. According to the August house price data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities rose 3.9% and 6.9% respectively from the same period last year, an increase of 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points respectively over the previous month. Among them, the new housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively over the previous month. The sales price of new homes in second-tier cities rose 5.0% year-on-year.

The traditional "gold nine silver ten" consumption season has arrived, industry experts predict: gold nine silver ten house prices will continue to rise, but the increase slows down. On the whole, the current round of real estate regulation and control policy in most cities is limited, including Chengdu and other cities with a marked rise in housing prices, regulation and control efforts are difficult to comprehensively curb the upward trend of the market.

Recently, since Evergrande announced a 30% discount on real estate across the country, the price war among developers has risen quietly. Under the influence of multiple factors, can the property market still reverse in the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season in this special 2020?

Is it still difficult to reproduce the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" this year?

During the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season, the property market in first-tier cities responded to a lot of "excitement". From the analysis, we can see that the real estate market will not trigger large-scale price cuts, but in the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season, the property market in first-tier cities has become more "lively". The Shijingshan plate in downtown Beijing has also rarely appeared a "sales office street" that can only appear in some suburban areas around Beijing.

Recalling the transaction results of the property market in the first half of the year, there was a differentiation in the regional structure, in which the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao had stronger market resilience and faster recovery, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the market recovery speed was relatively slow. Does the appearance of "a street in the sales office" in the urban area mean that the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" of the Beijing property market is coming?

Han Le, a well-known real estate marketer in Beijing, told Hexun Real Estate that "one street from the sales office" represents a cluster of regional projects, but it does not mean that there will be intensive price cuts, which will lead to a "price stampede". From the perspective of price and product positioning, the prices of most of the new orders in the "sales office street" in the ancient city are in the range of 6. 8-73000 / square meters, covering rigid demand, improvement and other different customer groups. Shijingshan belongs to one of the six districts in Beijing, the regional market is relatively hot, so the market attention is high, so there is a gathering effect, that is, the so-called "sales office street". This phenomenon is interpreted by the industry as the product of the rising popularity of regional real estate and the intensification of competition in competitive projects.

However, according to the survey, located in the eastern district of Yizhuang Road and Hexi District in Beijing, the project price has been reduced by some extent compared with last year's price level. The overall unit price has dropped from 50, 000 yuan / yuan in the same period last year to more than 46000 yuan / yuan.

The intermediary in the region said that one reason is that developers are anxious to "liquidate", "if they all want to run faster, the promotion will be a little bigger"; another reason is that in order to sprint for the peak sales season of the National Day holiday, developers have offered a lot of special offers. The total price of a project with two houses of 77 yuan is about 3.4 million after promotion, and the unit price is reduced to 44000 yuan / yuan, which is directly reduced to the standard of ordinary housing, which is also close to the property price of 39211 yuan / yuan acquired by China Shipping in Hexi District in August this year.

Will Beijing's "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" arrive as promised or under local heat or price reduction? Judging from the recent transaction data, it is likely to become a "copper KCRC 10". According to the real estate market transaction data of Beijing real estate marketers, from September 7 to September 13, 2020, 1295 commercial housing units were sold in Beijing, down 27 percent from the previous month; the transaction area was 164900 yuan, down 26 percent from the previous month; the average transaction price was 44552 yuan per month, up 5 percent from the previous month; the transaction volume was 7.348 billion yuan, down 22 percent from the previous month.

Han Le pointed out that from now on, the trend of property market transactions in September is a slow decline compared with August. Starting from 2018, Beijing's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" began to "break its appointment", and the property market even entered a natural "falling period". And the developer's discount promotion period, basically extended from the third quarter to double 11, when the market is relatively hot, may also face cooling regulation and control policies.

However, Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the industry is affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, and real estate enterprises are ready to attack the second half of the year, and the market competition in the second half of the year will be more intense. At the same time of their own pressure and Evergrande's high-profile promotion, some housing enterprises will choose the strategy of "price for quantity" to seize customer resources.

And the Beijing market, under the theme of "giving priority to stability", which has been opened before, is now the second and third phase of the opening project, will not easily reduce prices. No matter how much pressure the housing company is under, it will not be fully spread out in the matter of price reduction. If the price difference is too large, it will lead to the collective protection of the rights of former home buyers because of the price imbalance. However, from the new projects opened in the second half of the year, the intensity of concessions will be greater within a controllable range, and property buyers may have the opportunity to "pick up leaks".

How large-scale price cuts will be triggered by the "three red lines"?

On the evening of September 6, Evergrande took the lead in firing the first shot in the "price war" of ten seasons of gold, silver and silver, announcing a 30% discount for all real estate developments across the country. Chen Xiao, an analyst at Zhuge Housing data Research Center, said, "it is expected that during the 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' period, many housing companies will quickly withdraw funds in the form of price for volume."

As for whether there will be large-scale real estate enterprises "following the trend" after Evergrande's price reduction, Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that Evergrande plans to impact the "Golden Nine and Silver 10" in a promotional way, which may lead to accelerated shipments of the entire market. it is expected that other projects will formulate marketing strategies according to their own environment and sales goals at that time. Sales were blocked by the epidemic in the first half of the year, and most housing enterprises set 60% of the tasks to be completed in the second half of the year. Therefore, the traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" has become an important battlefield for real estate enterprises to seize the market. Evergrande's "participation in the war" was expected, but a high-profile entry may disrupt the rhythm and plans of some other real estate enterprises.

Among the leading housing enterprises, from a policy point of view, 58 Zhang Bo, branch director of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, predicted that "due to the recent increase in debt control over the 'three red lines' of real estate enterprises from the financial side, the phenomenon of overt or covert discounts in the property market in September is expected to increase. At the same time, it may play a downward role in housing prices."

Yan Yuejin, a well-known real estate analyst, said, "the current real estate market has entered the traditional 'gold nine silver ten' stage, and price reduction and promotion is the main theme. Judging from the follow-up house price index, it is not ruled out that the increase will continue to narrow. However, property developments in various places are generally affected by pre-sale certificates this year, and the concentration of some high-end projects into the market will objectively lead to an increase in the average transaction price in their cities, which is also a structural factor that property buyers need to pay attention to. But objectively speaking, it needs to be determined that this year's' Golden Nine Silver Ten 'stage is still the content of price reduction and promotion, and the degree of price profit is still relatively large. "

However, it should be noted that there will certainly be sales promotion in the property market in the fourth quarter, and housing companies will make price concessions, discounts and so on, but there will not be large-scale price cuts.