[SMM Weekly selected] supply pressure increases pressure aluminum price may rebound slightly next week

"SMM aluminum industry chain weekly report" released, the weekly report SMM will select one of the hot topics, prices, market or major changes in the industry chain information released into a document for your reference.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of SMM aluminum industry chain:

In the inner market, Shanghai aluminum fell continuously this week, and the bearish point from the fundamental point of view is that the market is not expected to be strong in the future "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, and the supply side continues to release new and resumption production capacity, while imports of ingots have decreased, but they are still flowing in one after another, and SMM statistics show an increase in the weekly inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumer places across the country; but the main reason is the withdrawal of long funds from large households and the conversion of market trading sentiment. Due to a precedent, aluminum prices in May-July all experienced "long soft crowding" caused by excessive positions in the month before delivery. judging from the trading rankings of the previous stock exchange, large long positions in the market dropped sharply this month, part of the speculative bulls withdrew, and some hedging positions also saw a trend to move their positions to the far month, resulting in a five-day reduction in positions in that month, with 2009 and 2010 contract aluminum prices both falling, and the price spread narrowed to around 100 yuan / ton in recent months.

Judging from the situation next week (09.7-09.11), consumption will pick up immediately after entering September, and inventory is still relatively low and has not decreased rapidly. It is expected that the aluminum price of the main 2010 contract will continue to decline within 200 yuan / ton, and there is still some support at the Wansi gate, but due to the possibility of falsification in the peak consumption season, and the pressure caused by the release of new Q3-Q4 capacity is expected to be obvious, and the upstream is expected to be under pressure. Generally speaking, there may be a small rebound in the low level next week, but the rebound space is limited, with an operating range of 14100-14600 yuan / ton.

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Catalogue of "SMM Aluminum Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this issue's weekly report

1. the downstream starts to pick up slowly during the peak season. Most downstream enterprises are still optimistic.

two。 The pace of domestic price rise is stagnant and the transaction is limited.

3. The arrival of goods is on the low side. Guangdong continues to go to the warehouse and the spot stock rises to stop the rebound.

4. The base price falls, the processing fee rebounds, and the source of motor transport is OK.

5. The supply of raw aluminum is tight, the price is stable, and the demand for cooked aluminum generally follows the decline of aluminum price quickly.

6. Import aluminum alloy ingots reduce scrap aluminum supply shortage concerns exacerbate ADC12 prices rise slightly

7. The difference between supply and demand of silicon with different specifications is a chaotic buying and selling game.

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The contents of "SMM China Aluminum Industry chain High-end report" include: macro hot spots, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, waste aluminum, aluminum accessories, aluminum, waste aluminum pre-baked anode analysis, the scope to accommodate the spot market, futures, inventory market performance and aluminum processing start-up rate research, and pay attention to real-time LME, SHFE and SMM prices. "View details

The "SMM China Aluminum Industry chain routine report" includes: macro hot spots, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, waste aluminum, pre-baked anode analysis, spot market, futures, inventory performance and other changes and related news, and focuses on real-time LME, SHFE and SMM price trends. "View details