[SMM afternoon Review] the US Index rebounded with the rise and fall of non-ferrous metals and the strong support of iron ore after the arrival of the port.

SMM9 March 2: the non-ferrous market is mixed in the morning, with Shanghai Copper down 0.84%, Shanghai Aluminum down 0.72%, Shanghai Zinc up 0.5%, and Shanghai Tin up 0.6%. Today's macro situation is intertwined. On the one hand, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a notice that for some Chinese goods, the tariff exemption period will be extended for another 4 months to the end of 2020. On the other hand, the US manufacturing PMI was 56 in August, higher than the previous value and expectations, the US manufacturing sector maintained a strong recovery and the dollar began to rebound.

In terms of copper, copper mining is almost normal. Chile's National Bureau of Statistics announced that copper production fell 4.6% to 468000 tons in July compared with the same period last year. The interference of the epidemic on the mine side is still unable to be completely eliminated, and continuous attention has been paid to it. However, the situation of month-on-month improvement in copper production remains unchanged. In addition, sources said that a 6.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Beijing, northern Chile, at 5: 00 on the 2nd. At present, there are no reports of casualties, continue to pay attention to whether the later period has an impact on production and transportation.

In terms of aluminum, from the perspective of domestic fundamentals, short-term consumption has not yet got rid of the off-season effect, and the recent trend has been adjusted in stages, taking into account that the current stock is not as expected, the stock is still below 800000 tons, and with the recovery of consumption from September to October, it may be possible to go to the warehouse for the second time, the lower position of 14200 yuan / ton still has a certain supporting force, and it is still possible to rise in the medium term. Pay attention to the actual feedback of consumption, the change of inventory growth and the operation of funds in September. "short-term off-season effect or lag in aluminum prices can still be expected.

In terms of black, iron ore rose 0.35%, thread fell 0.19%, and hot coil rose 0.07%. As of last Friday, the inventory of ultra-special powder in the six major domestic ports counted by SMM totaled about 2.6 million tons, which is at a low level so far this year, and the price gap between low-and medium-grade minerals in port spot continues to narrow. The latest arrival volume fell by 950000 tons compared with the previous period, and even if production restrictions hit, the lower part of the iron ore still has support. The thread is slightly difficult, although the strength of raw material prices (iron ore, scrap, coke, etc.) continues to "tamp" the bottom support of spot prices, and the supply side of building materials under poor profits has also fallen slightly, but when strong demand expectations have not been realized for a long time, inventories remain high, which will suppress spot prices that are difficult to sustain or rise sharply.

Crude oil fell 0.91% in the previous period. Oil prices rose on Wednesday as US crude oil inventories fell more than expected and US manufacturing data were robust, boosting investor risk appetite by boosting optimism about the economic recovery after the novel coronavirus epidemic. Brent crude futures are currently up $0.39, or 0.86%, to $45.97 a barrel. Us crude oil futures rose 37 cents, or 0.87 percent, to $43.13 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 28, well ahead of analysts' expectations of 1.9 million barrels, according to an industry version of the inventory report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.

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