Macro Roundup (Aug 27)

SHANGHAI, Aug 27 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar gained on Wednesday but stayed within a relatively tight range a day ahead of a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell is scheduled to address the US central bank’s policy framework review, and investors are focused on whether he will hint at shifting the Fed’s inflation target to an average.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of currencies was up 0.15% at 93.14. The index hit a session high of 93.37 after data showed that US durable goods orders increased more than expected in July, but fell back again.

New orders for key US-made capital goods slowed in July, suggesting the rebound in business investment could become more gradual amid uncertainty about the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, even as the recovery in manufacturing appears to be gaining traction.

Overall durable goods surged 11.2% in July, compared with expectations of an increase of 4.3% and a 7.6% increase a month earlier.

Republicans are working on a more narrow coronavirus stimulus bill that they could release to members of Congress as soon as this week, two senior administration officials and three people briefed on the matter told CNBC.

The GOP is mulling a roughly $500 billion proposal that addresses only areas of bipartisan support: expanded unemployment insurance, a new authorization of small business loans, and money for schools and Covid-19 testing, treatment and vaccines. The plan would not include another direct payment to Americans. It would set enhanced jobless benefits at roughly $300 to $400 per week. The figure would be less than the $600 per week approved in March, which Democrats want to reinstate after it expired at the end of July. 

Gold jumped over 1% on Wednesday as the dollar slipped on the eve of a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and as investors bet on further stimulus to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Spot gold rose 1% to $1,948.07 per ounce, after declining to a two-week low early in the session. US gold futures settled up 1.5% at $1,952.50.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to fresh record highs. The broader market index gained 1% to end its trading day stateside at 3,478.73 while the Nasdaq popped 1.7% to close at 11,665.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 83.48 points, or 0.3% to finish its trading day at 28,331.92.

Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, pressured by worries about the demand outlook during the coronavirus pandemic but buoyed as US producers shut output in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Laura.

Ahead of the storm, crude exports last week rose by the most since February 2019 to nearly 3.4 million barrels per day, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week to Aug 21, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 3.7 million barrels, EIA said.

On the coronavirus front, biotech firm Moderna announced Wednesday that its potential coronavirus vaccine generated a promising immune response in elderly patients during an early stage clinical trial.

Shanghai base metals closed mixed in overnight trading. Copper added 0.43%, nickel rose 1.03% and tin advanced 0.47%, while zinc fell 0.13%, lead weakened 0.54% and aluminium traded flat.

Nonferrous metals on the LME also traded mixed on Wednesday. Copper rose 0.98%, nickel climbed 1.33% and tin increased 1.12%, while aluminium shed 0.17%, zinc weakened 0.22% and lead slipped 0.4%.

US initial claims for jobless benefits in the week ended August 22, second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and pending home sales for July are scheduled for released today.