[SMM afternoon Review] the rise and fall of non-ferrous metals shows that Shanghai Nickel, Shanghai Copper rushes up and falls back, black series narrow range fluctuating iron ore is up more than 0.7%.

SMM7 March 28: morning morning non-ferrous market continued to rise outside the market, but near midday some metals opened higher and lower. Shanghai lead and tin rose more than 2%, Shanghai copper and Shanghai nickel gave up the increase, the market turned green, and Shanghai zinc was flat. With regard to zinc, in July, the Hu-Lun ratio rose first and then suppressed, revised down again to around 8.17, and the import loss also expanded to around 450 yuan / ton. in China, the consumption of die-casting zinc alloys is still in the doldrums, and it is difficult to recover in the short term. The flood situation in the south has affected terminal consumption, and the orders of galvanizing enterprises have weakened compared with the previous period, while at the same time, the output of smelters has increased by more than 20,000 tons month-on-month, under this influence. Domestic spot transactions are weak, while overseas consumption continues to rise from the freezing point, and the short-term import window is still difficult to open. Based on this, SMM expects imports to fall to about 45000 tons in July. "check the details.

In terms of aluminum, according to customs statistics, domestic exports of prebaked anodes totaled 114000 tons in June 2020, down 12.78% from the same period last year and 30.95% from the previous month. From the perspective of customs data, the export volume of China's prebaked anodes in the first half of this year was not affected by the epidemic and was on the rise as a whole. affected by the oversupply at home, domestic anode enterprises are paying more attention to foreign market demand. however, due to the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic, some overseas electrolytic aluminum and aluminum enterprises have adjusted their operating capacity. SMM expects total anode exports to be suppressed in the second half of the year. [SMM Analysis] China's prebaked anode exports increased by 23.4% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.

In terms of black, iron ore rose 0.73%, thread fell 0.11%, and hot coil rose 0.11%. Affected by rising tensions between China and the United States, risk aversion in the market is still strong. Combined with the current situation of hot rolling, it is expected that the probability of periodic callback is higher. Mainly because, on the one hand, the hot rolling supply is still increasing, while the short-term terminal demand has not been released, on the other hand, the spot price of hot rolling has risen for four months in a row, with each market rising by 700-800 yuan / ton. as a result, the fear of heights among traders and terminals has become more and more intense, the pace of procurement and inventory has slowed down, and the activity of market transactions has decreased.

Crude oil fell 1.52% in the previous period. Outer disk oil prices rose for a third straight day on Tuesday as the United States took stimulus measures to boost the epidemic-hit economy to support demand, while a weaker dollar made crude oil cheaper for global buyers. Brent crude futures climbed 43 cents, or 1 percent, to $44.33 a barrel. It rose 0.2% on Monday. Us crude oil futures rose 32 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $41.92 a barrel. It rose 0.75% in the previous session.

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Today's spot

Zinc: the mainstream turnover of zinc in Guangdong is 17970-18500 yuan / ton, and the quotation is concentrated on the discount of 20 yuan / ton to even water for the 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc, and the discount of 90 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices soared, there were few purchases downstream, shipments increased when the shipments were high, and spot prices were under pressure. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted a discount of 20 yuan / ton to flat for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. In the second trading session, price volatility fell, downstream bargain purchases increased, traders also actively inquired about discounts, and market trading improved compared with the first trading session. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 20-10 yuan / ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize mainstream transactions at 17970-18500 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Bao was 18090-18600 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand narrowed from 30 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Today, zinc prices have gone up and down. In the first trading session, Tiefeng and Xi Mining reported that the water rose around 90 yuan / ton for the August contract, about 100 yuan / ton for South China for August, and about 110-120 yuan / ton for Kirin for August. Huize reported that around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract, the high zinc price market was light, and the downstream temporarily waited and saw that the market activity increased slightly with the zinc price falling. Rigid demand procurement contributes to the main market transactions, the overall market transactions are mediocre.

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