Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / Just now Putin discussed opening up the global economy by phone with Trent. Musk, an "Internet celebrity", publicly called for the collective rise of nickel non-ferrous metals in the night market. LME nickel rose by more than 4%.
Just now Putin discussed opening up the global economy by phone with Trent. Musk, an "Internet celebrity", publicly called for the collective rise of nickel non-ferrous metals in the night market. LME nickel rose by more than 4%.
Jul 24,2020 08:06CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: as Mr Musk's speech on the earnings call highlighted the risk that the mine might struggle to increase production to meet the needs of electric carmakers, overnight nickel prices soared, with LME nickel up more than 4 per cent and Shanghai nickel up nearly 3 per cent.

On July 24th, the Chicago Stock Exchange raised the margin for COMEX500 silver futures by 12.5% to US $9000 per contract, and lowered the monthly crude oil futures margin for NYMEX9 by 8.8% to US $6200 per contract.

Moscow, July 23 (Xinhua) Russian President Vladimir Putin made an ordinary phone call with US President Trent on July 23 to discuss strategic stability, arms control and other issues. The Kremlin website said in a statement on the same day that in view of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for the maintenance of international peace and security, Putin and Trump discussed in detail the issue of strategic stability and arms control. The two presidents recognized the urgent need for bilateral consultations on related issues, including the New Strategic Arms reduction Treaty. The statement said that the leaders of the two countries also discussed the Iranian nuclear issue. The two sides stressed the need to make joint efforts to maintain regional stability and the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. The two sides also expressed their willingness to promote economic and trade cooperation between Russia and the United States, and made positive comments on the cooperation between the two countries in fighting the new crown epidemic. According to a statement issued by the White House, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone on the same day to discuss the importance of restarting the global economy while fighting the epidemic, as well as important bilateral and global issues. Trump said he expects the United States and Russia to make progress in the upcoming arms control negotiations in Vienna.

On July 23, local time, WHO Director-General Tan Desai said that there were more than 15 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide, with a total of nearly 620000 deaths. At present, the three countries with the largest number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world are the United States, Brazil and India.

As of the early morning close, the S & P 500 index of US stocks was down 1.23%; the European Stoxx50 index was up 0.09%; the dollar index was down 0.20%; WTI crude oil was down 1.98%; Brent crude oil was down 1.95%; Lun copper was up 0.45%; and gold was up 0.73%. American beans are up 0.56%; American soybean meal is up 1.32%; American soybean oil is down 0.46%; American sugar is down 1.10%; American cotton is down 1.17%; the BDI CRB index is down 0.26%; the BDI index is down 5.77%. Offshore renminbi CNH rose 0.10 per cent, while Deutsche Bank X-Trackers Castrol Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Chinese A-share ETF rose 0.09 per cent.

"Internet celebrity" Musk asked for nickel, and overnight non-ferrous metal futures rose collectively.

Elon Musk, Tesla's chief executive, told suppliers during a second-quarter earnings call on July 23: "if you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract." Affected by the news, the non-ferrous metals plate of the domestic futures market rose collectively in the night market, with Shanghai Nickel opening 1.6% higher and closing up 3%.

LME nickel climbed 4.3 per cent at one point as Mr Musk's speech on the earnings call highlighted the risk that the mine might struggle to increase production to meet the needs of electric carmakers.

Analysts believe that while it may still be years before there is a serious shortage of demand, some miners are struggling to make a profit in their existing business, so nickel prices may need to rise sharply to stimulate future supply.

Colin Hamilton, managing director of commodity research at BMO Capital Markets, says nickel prices don't need much to get excited on their own. "I was rather bearish on nickel, but I do think that a real raw material constraint is starting to run through the chain." He said.

As of the early morning close, LME nickel rose 4.2 per cent to close at $13689 a tonne, the third rise in four days and the biggest increase since Aug. 30 last year.

Nickel is a key component of the cathode of electric vehicle battery, and its price is relatively low. Musk's words revived the market's attention to high-nickel batteries. However, market participants believe that the impact of this news on the disk is limited, in the long run, although the demand for nickel continues to repair, there is little room for nickel prices to continue to rise in the second half of the year. Tu Licheng, a non-ferrous analyst at Jin Rui Futures, believes that on the one hand, the demand loss caused by the epidemic is not much different from that of other basic metals, but with the repair of domestic real estate, the consumption brought about by the rush of the project is concentrated and released, stimulating a V-shaped reversal of demand. consumption will continue to repair in the second half of the year, but the domestic real estate policy is mainly stable, or it is difficult to exceed expectations. On the other hand, stainless steel social inventory continued to decline in the second quarter, but the current overseas epidemic situation has not improved, the domestic market has also entered the off-season of consumption, terminal consumption has also slowed down after the early release. However, the domestic output of stainless steel row is high, which is the same as that in the same period last year, and the market is expected to heat up. Consumption growth is expected to be about 4% in the second quarter, with a slight decline in consumption growth for the whole year. At the same time, the impact of the overseas epidemic is mainly concentrated in the second quarter, with consumption growth of-9% in the first half of the year, and there is a risk of a second outbreak in the second half of the year. Consumption growth is difficult to reverse and is expected to maintain negative growth.

"from the supply side, NPI decreases internally and increases externally, and the increment still comes from Indonesia." Tu Licheng said that of the 35 units planned for the second phase of Delong in Indonesia, 15 have been completed, and 5 have been ignited in the first half of the year, plus 15 in the first phase, 20 units are in production. It is expected that new furnaces will be put into production in the third quarter, and all 15 units in the second phase will be put into production by the end of the year. At the end of last year, 28 furnaces were in production in Morovali, Aoyama, Indonesia. As of June, 36 stoves were in production. Aoyama Vedabe Industrial Park in Indonesia has been put into production of 4 units (Ehmann), 4 sets of Zhenshi from June to July, 2 sets of Shengtun-Huayou 4 units from July to August, and 24 sets of Weidabe Industrial Park, which is expected to reach 12 units this year. According to the current production and production progress, the increment of Ferro nickel in Indonesia has been revised upwards to 210000 tons of metal this year.

It is understood that since January this year, Indonesia has banned the export of laterite ore, and the Philippines has once again become China's main source of nickel ore, accounting for 92%. However, affected by the epidemic, shipments should have returned to normal after the end of the rainy season, with a delay of about a month, domestic imports did not meet expectations, port inventories continued to decline, and have been operating at an all-time low of about 8 million tons since May. Recently, although shipments in the Philippines have resumed, domestic iron mills have to build up mines to iron out the supply of raw materials for the whole year in the non-rainy season. Even if port inventories increase in the third quarter, they may not all be converted into ferronickel in the current period. Tu Licheng believes that short-term nickel mine prices will continue to operate high, with the current 1.5% grade CIF Chinese port offer rising to $46 per cent / wet ton, up $10 / wet ton from the beginning of April, or nearly 27 per cent, which is already higher than the offer made when Indonesia announced the mining ban last year. In the third quarter, under the stimulation of high mineral prices, more nickel mines will enter the country, and the tension in nickel mines will be alleviated.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refutes these excuses for the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston.

On 22 July, US Secretary of State Pompeo and other US officials claimed that the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston by the US side was a response to China's interference in US internal affairs, theft of US intellectual property rights, and commercial espionage activities over the years, with the aim of protecting US intellectual property rights and private information of the American people.

In response, Wang Wenbin said that Chinese embassies and consulates in the United States, including the Consulate General in Houston, are committed to promoting friendship and cooperation between the two peoples and have always abided by international and local laws in performing their duties in the United States. For more than 40 years, the Chinese Consulate General in Houston has been committed to promoting mutual understanding and cooperation between China and the United States from all walks of life, and has done a lot of friendly work to this end.

The US side claims that the Chinese Consulate General in Houston is engaged in activities that are inconsistent with its identity, which is totally malicious slander. The US side demands that the Chinese Consulate General in Houston be closed, seriously violating international law and basic norms governing international relations, seriously violating the relevant provisions of the Sino-US consular treaty, and seriously damaging Sino-US relations. This is tearing down the bridge of friendship between the peoples of China and the United States.

Some media commented that the US side asked for the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston because the Chinese side did not facilitate the resumption of the US Consulate General in Wuhan.

Wang Wenbin said that the relevant statement is not true. In January, the United States unilaterally announced the temporary closure of the Consulate General in Wuhan and the evacuation of its staff. In June, some diplomats of the US Consulate General in Wuhan returned to Wuhan to resume operation of the museum. The Chinese side has been providing facilities for the US Consulate to perform its duties in accordance with the law.

The US claimed that the Chinese Consul General in Houston and two diplomats were recently found to have used false identities to escort Chinese passengers to the boarding gate of the chartered plane.

In response, Wang Wenbin said that the personal information of Chinese embassies and consulates in the United States is open and transparent to the United States. When Chinese consular officials enter the restricted area of the airport, with the prior approval of the United States, they use the identity documents of consular officials issued by the US State Department for the purpose of taking care of Chinese citizens on temporary flights. this is reasonable, compliant and legal, and there are many precedents. The relevant remarks made by the US side are completely fabricating reasons, and the accusations against the Chinese side are not in line with the facts.

With regard to the unauthorized opening of China's diplomatic pouch by the US side, Wang Wenbin said that in July 2018 and January 2020, the US side twice opened China's diplomatic pouch without authorization. This move blatantly violates the Vienna Convention on diplomatic Relations and the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and seriously infringes upon China's diplomatic dignity and security interests.

After the incident, Chinese diplomatic agencies in the United States made solemn representations to the US side at the first time, and the US side did not deny the relevant facts, but repeatedly used technical reasons to excuse its erroneous actions and shirk its own responsibility. In response to the unreasonable actions of the US side, the Chinese side will certainly make the necessary response to safeguard its own legitimate rights and interests.

Us stocks collectively closed down, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%

On Thursday, the three major indexes of US stocks closed down, with the Dow down more than 350 points and technology stocks plummeting. Apple and Microsoft both fell more than 4%, and Tesla fell nearly 5%. As of now, the Dow is down 353.51 points, or 1.31%, the Nasdaq is down 2.29%, and the S & P 500 is down 1.23%.

At a White House briefing, Trump called on Congress to pass 105 billion dollars for school construction as part of the next epidemic relief bill. He said the money would be used to support small classes, set up teaching assistants, control social distance and wear masks. However, if the school is not open, the money should "follow the students so that parents and families can make their own decisions."

Trump said it was important to reopen schools so that parents could return to work and that families should make the most appropriate decisions, adding that reopening schools was not political.

"I hope that local governments will put the overall health and well-being of students first and make the right decisions for children, parents and teachers, rather than making political decisions. This has nothing to do with politics. "

Us Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: new unemployment benefits may be based on 70% salary

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said on July 23 that the Trump administration will use a 70% salary replacement rate as the basis for unemployment security, which will be the basis for negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Specific relief figures have not been confirmed after sources revealed that the Republican Party was considering cutting unemployment benefits to $100, but had not reached a final decision.

In addition, US Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that the size of the relief bill will be about 1 trillion US dollars, and further bailouts cannot be ruled out.

The maximum premium of the ninth auction of stored corn is 600 yuan per ton.

On July 23, the ninth auction of temporary storage corn is undoubtedly the most dazzling "star" in the domestic grain and oil spot market, and the higher and higher transaction price has become the focus of discussion between the majority of investors and people in the industry. At the same time, boosted by the high auction price of corn in temporary storage, the futures price of corn in Dalian rose sharply, and the market was bullish again. The price of the main contract closed up 53 yuan / ton, the highest level since mid-September 2015.

Judging from the ninth auction of corn for temporary storage in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and other provinces announced by the National Grain Trading Center, it is surprising that the highest premium per ton has reached 600 yuan. Recently, more than 40 million tons of policy corn has been auctioned, and has been or is entering the market, it is really crazy for the ninth auction of temporary storage corn to have a maximum premium of 600 yuan.

On July 23rd, the market was surprised by the opening of the ninth auction of temporary storage corn, and the transaction price of 2290 yuan per ton was a sudden premium of 550yuan. It is understood that the highest premium on that day appeared in the Bayannur Central Reserve Grain Depot Co., Ltd., the first-class corn, with a trading volume of 3534 tons, with a starting quotation of 1780 yuan / ton, a transaction price of 2380 yuan / ton, and a premium of as high as 2380 yuan / ton.

Analysts believe that the key factor in the rise in corn prices is psychology, which has little to do with the adequacy of supply.

"from April to May this year, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China once soared, and the highest purchase price of Xinmai 26 in some areas of Shandong and Hebei reached 2900 yuan per ton. at that time, the prices of domestic common wheat and sub-high-quality wheat also went up all the way. for example, the out-of-stock price of 979 wheat in Xiping County, Henan Province reached 2640 yuan per ton. Since Xinmai went on the market in June 2020, due to the overall decline in domestic wheat prices, the state has launched a pre-plan for the purchase of wheat at the lowest price. " Zhang Xiaojuan, a trader of wheat and corn in Henan Province, told Futures Daily that the situation in the corn market is similar to that in the wheat market from April to May this year. At a time when the market supply is normal, prices have risen sharply due to large fluctuations in market psychology.

Zhang Xiaojuan said: since April this year, driven by the rise in grain prices such as wheat, stimulated by the increase in the stock of live pigs and the rise in pork prices, as well as the postponement of this year's corn auction, especially due to the large decline in the total amount of corn stocks, the domestic corn market has produced optimism such as insufficient inventory, insufficient production and demand, strong demand, and rising prices. After entering May, the market appeared the phenomenon of hoarding and selling, snapping up and replenishing the stock, and so on. After the temporary storage corn began to be auctioned this year, the continuous high turnover rate and high premium situation ignited the bullish enthusiasm of the market. However, at present, the supply of corn in China's corn market is very normal, and even the slightly tight supply pattern in the early stage is constantly improving. For example, there is obviously more information about selling corn in several WeChat groups of corn traders in which she works.

According to a reporter from the Futures Daily, the temporary storage corn will provide about 36 million tons of supply to the market after nine auctions, coupled with the competitive sale of one-time reserve corn across the country and the release of other policy-related inventory corn, the total amount is estimated to be about 45 million tons, which can completely make up for the gap between supply and demand predicted by the domestic corn market in the current year. At the same time, with the news of increasing imports of corn, sorghum and barley, coupled with the increasing substitution advantages of wheat, rice and wheat bran, the market expects corn prices to be "crazy".

The new supply of corn and corn substitutes is "on the road"

First, the release of all kinds of policy corn from the warehouse has been accelerated. At present, in addition to the weekly fixed auction of 4 million tons of temporary corn, the relevant agencies have also increased the efforts of all kinds of policy corn to enter the market. After reading the materials, the reporter found that entrusted by the Henan Branch, Inner Mongolia Branch, Yunnan Branch, Xi'an Branch, Beijing Branch, Guangxi Branch, and Chengdu Branch, the e-commerce platform of China Grain Storage Network is scheduled to organize a special bidding sale of corn on July 24 and July 28, which will sell 59000 tons of corn produced in 2017 and 2018 respectively, producing in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces. The target storage is distributed in Anyang City, Hebi City, Jiaozuo City, Luohe City, Shangqiu City, Pingdingshan City, Xinxiang City, Xuchang City, Zhengzhou City and Zhumadian City. In 2016, 68000 tons of corn was produced in Inner Mongolia, and the target storage was distributed in Tongliao, Chifeng and Ordos; in 2017, 9132 tons of corn was produced in Yunnan, Xinjiang and Jilin, and the target storage was distributed in Qujing City, Dali Prefecture, Kunming City and Lijiang City, Yunnan Province. In 2016 and 2017, 33382 tons of corn were produced in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin and Shanxi, and the target storage was distributed in Weinan, Pucheng, Yulin, Yan'an and Xianyang; in 2016, 10300 tons of corn was produced in Jilin and Heilongjiang, and the target storage was distributed in the jurisdiction of Zhangjiakou Central Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. In 2017, 1224 tons of corn was produced in Inner Mongolia, and the target storage was distributed in Hezhou City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region; in 2016, 4061 tons of corn was produced in Heilongjiang, and the target storage was distributed in Xichang City, Sichuan Province.

Second, the import of corn and corn substitutes increased. According to a reporter from Futures Daily, China imported 680000 tons of sorghum in June this year, a three-year high and an increase of 410000 tons from 270000 tons last month. The total amount of barley imported in June was 500000 tons, an increase of 117.39 percent over the same period last year. Corn imports totaled 880000 tons in June, up 240000 tons from 640000 tons last month.

In addition, it is understood that at present, there are a large number of rice and wheat at the lowest purchase price in China, and at a time of serious floods in the south, some rice stored for a long time urgently need to be released from the storehouse, and it can completely replace a large amount of corn as feed raw material by virtue of its greater price advantage.

It is worth mentioning that market participants believe that there is also a probability that the temporary storage of corn will eventually fail to sell. "it took less than two months for the State Reserve soybean auction to go from being robbed to yesterday's failed auction. At a time when corn is growing very well in the current new season, and there is a high probability that its per unit yield will be greatly increased by sufficient rain, the stored corn will not always be treated as a 'treasure' in the future." Lao Hu, a Shaanxi corn trader, told reporters that in fact, the transaction rate of policy corn bidding sales in some areas has begun to decline. For example, the transaction rate of 7394 tons of corn sold by China Reserve Grain Lanzhou Branch on July 23 was 73%. The transaction rate of China Reserve Grain Chengdu Branch selling 5604 tons of one-time reserve corn on July 22 was only 28%.

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