Li Junfeng: the average annual installation of photovoltaic 50GW during the 14th five-year Plan period is a more rational choice.

SMM News: since 2004, photovoltaic power generation has become the world's fastest growing power supply, the growth rate has maintained double-digit growth. The cumulative installed capacity in 2019 was close to 700 million kilowatts, with an increase of 120 million kilowatts that year, making it the least affected power source for Xinguan pneumonia. In the first quarter, China's coal power fell 8% year-on-year, while photovoltaic power generation increased by 25% year-on-year.

Li Junfeng, the first director of the National Center for Strategic Research on Climate change and International Cooperation, made an in-depth discussion on the "14th five-year Plan" energy plan at the seminar on the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2020 and the situation outlook for the second half of the year on July 22nd. He pointed out that from the historical development experience, the energy increment of 500m tons of standard coal during the 14th five-year Plan period is a high probability event, that is, the total energy demand in 2025 is about 5.3 billion tons of standard coal. 18% of non-fossil energy accounts for 18%, photovoltaic only has the development space of 25GW every year, and under the condition of 20% non-fossil energy, the development space of photovoltaic is only 55GW, so it is necessary to ensure that the proportion of non-fossil energy is not less than 20%.

At the same time, Li Junfeng stressed that the increase should be borne entirely by non-fossil fuels. From the perspective of development prospects, hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass power generation are basically stereotyped, with no more than 80 billion kilowatt-hours per year, and almost all the remaining tasks are undertaken by wind and photovoltaic power generation, while geothermal, solar thermal utilization, biogas and other thermal utilization are still negligible. Photovoltaic power generation is a more rational choice to be installed annually around 50GW during the 14th five-year Plan period.

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