SMM forecast: it is estimated that the flat price difference of rebar in Shagang in late July is 100 million yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade large snail (ex-factory price 3850 yuan / ton), the warehouse cost in East China is 3800 yuan / ton, and the factory lift cost is 3750 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis: recently, Hangzhou prices have maintained a high volatility pattern under the support of strong expectations and relatively weak fundamentals (demand is still suppressed by rain). In the later stage, there is still no significant trend in spot prices. Although the pressure on the supply side has loosened slightly-in July, the output of blast furnace factories in eastern China, which mainly produces building materials, fell 3.25% compared with June, and electric furnace plants decreased by 9.59% compared with the same period in June. Some billet steel mills have also reduced production and maintenance in the face of poor profits; and plums are coming out one after another in some parts of eastern China, and the expectability of the demand side seems to be gradually strengthened. However, although the supply is still high, coupled with the inventory scale that has been hovering at the edge of the storage capacity limit for a long time, it has always been a "sharp blade" hanging in the minds of spot merchants. Market sentiment has always been cautious, and the transaction situation has not improved significantly. In this case, the upward space of spot prices is greatly limited. Steel mills are still shipping to reduce market inventory pressure, factory prices are likely to maintain stability.
In terms of making up the gap: according to the SMM Iron and Steel calculation, the average selling price of Shagang resources in Hangzhou is 3673.3 yuan / ton, and the trader lost 126.7 yuan per ton of steel. According to research, as of July 20, the transaction price in Hangzhou area was about 3650 won 3660 yuan per ton, with a loss of about 140 won 150 yuan per ton, and an actual loss of 100 won 150 yuan per ton. This ten-day steel plant has a high probability of making up for a gap of 100 murals and 150 yuan per ton. Cost: according to the SMM steel data model, calculated by 110.55 US Gold Mine, the thread cost of long-process steel mill is 3535 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 141.1 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Shagang plans 10% off the planned thread quantity in July (9.5% off last month), 10% off the screw (10% off last month); Zhongtian 7Mel 3-stage planned quantity, 90% off the thread (20% off in the previous period), 10% off the wire rod and disc screw (10% off in the previous period); Yonggang 7MUE 3-stage planned quantity, 5.5% off thread (50% off in the previous period), 10% off the wire rod and screw (10% off in the previous period).