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[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper futures price pullback significantly increases shippers' willingness to ship goods.
Jul 17,2020 09:20CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

7.17 minutes of the bronze morning meeting

Macro: 1) the European Central Bank left interest rates and stimulus measures unchanged on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde said that the speed and scale of economic recovery remain highly uncertain, monetary policy will be unrestricted, and the central bank intends to use the full quota of its epidemic emergency bond purchase program. but other officials of the bank are said to disagree. [lido] 2) tracking of the new crown epidemic: the number of new crown deaths in a single day in Florida of the United States reached a record high, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil exceeded 2 million. Hong Kong reported a record 63 new crowns in Hong Kong on Thursday, 35 of which are of unknown origin. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper in Guangdong was quoted at 45700 yuan / ton ~ 46000 yuan / ton on July 16, down 900yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The price difference of fine waste was 2297 yuan / ton, which was narrowed by 270yuan compared with the previous day. Copper prices fell sharply yesterday, downstream and traders fear to restock on demand, but many views believe that it is only a temporary correction, confidence in the future is still strong. 2) the warehouse receipt for imported copper on July 16 quoted US $93mur105 / ton, the average price was unchanged from the previous day; the bill of lading quoted US $82mur94 / ton, the average price was unchanged from the previous day, QP August. The LME0-3 discount is US $7.25 / tonne, and the import loss is around 100RMB / tonne. Yesterday, the turnover of the imported copper market remained light, the activity of both buyers and sellers was low, the willingness of the holders to ship goods increased, and the quotations of some holders were lowered, but the buyer still lowered the price, and the transaction still showed a stalemate, and the price stalemate remained unchanged for the time being. 3) LME copper inventory decreased by 6650 tons to 159800 tons month-on-month on July 16, while copper warehouse receipt inventory increased by 153 tons to 65177 tons in the previous period. 4) spot East China: on July 16, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted as rising 20 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton in the same month, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Spot aspect, after the market decline alleviated, the downstream buying interest rebounded, and the rising water is expected to rise steadily today. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 40 RMB50 / ton today. South China: on July 16, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province was quoted as a rise of 20 cents per month for the current month's contract, with the average price falling by 60 percent. Inventory in Guangdong has increased for four consecutive days, and there is an adequate supply of goods in the market. As soon as the rising water continues to rise in the earlier period, there has been a shock and drop; in addition, recently, a lot of wet-process copper has flowed into the Guangdong market, and the lower reaches generally favor low-price wet-process copper, which makes it slightly difficult to sell flat copper. Overall, after the month change, the shippers' willingness to ship increased significantly, coupled with the sharp drop in futures prices, downstream purchasing desire significantly increased compared with the day before yesterday; low rising water and low copper prices stimulated trading, and trading activity in the market increased yesterday. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6410 US dollars / ton, up 0.24%. The trading volume was 18000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2671 to 314000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 51470 yuan / ton, up 1.7%, the trading volume was 58000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2981 lots to 112000 lots. Last night stabilized and rebounded, Lun Copper moved from the US $6350 first-line operation center to above the 6400 mark, Shanghai Copper also repaired upward after opening, and then fluctuated around 51500 yuan / ton. Copper prices fell more this week, as there is still support on the supply side, the pullback attracted bulls to actively enter the market, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded yesterday. However, on the macro side, due to the increase in the number of new crown infections, the sharp rebound in the dollar index, risk aversion in the market, and the pressure on oil prices after OPEC reduced production, copper prices are expected to lack upward momentum today. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6400 won 6450 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 51250 won 51650 yuan / ton.

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