Macro Roundup (Jul 16)

SHANGHAI, Jul 16 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The US dollar declined to the lowest level in nearly five weeks, as risk sentiment revived as progress toward a coronavirus vaccine helped equities rebound.

Overnight, SHFE base metals continued to end lower across the board while LME nonferrous metals traded mixed.

SHFE copper led the losses and slipped 2.25%. Aluminium dropped 1.24%, zinc eased 0.61%, lead dipped 1.69%, nickel fell 0.66% and tin went down 0.88%. Rebar shed 0.29% and stainless steel decreased by 1.03%. 

LME copper fell with its SHFE counterpart and closed down 1.62%. Aluminium shed 0.24%, nickel declined 0.48%, while zinc climbed 0.41%, tin expanded 0.06% and lead rose 0.14%.

On the data front, consumer prices in the UK edged up in June though they were the second-lowest in nearly four years and the first growth since January.

The UK consumer price index rose 0.6% year-over-year in June, compared to 0.5% growth in May. Consensus expectations were for 0.4% growth, the Office for National Statistics said.

“Price growth has generally been strong in these areas in recent months with lockdown driving elevated consumer demand for these goods even as international supply chains have been under pressure,” said economists at Citi.

US import and export prices increased in June, the US Department of Labor reported on Wednesday.

The price index for US imports rose 1.4% in June, after rising 0.8% the previous month. The June advance was led by higher fuel prices, and was the largest monthly increase since the index rose 1.4% in March 2012. Despite the recent increases, the price index for US imports fell 3.8% for the year ended in June.
The price index for US imports from China grew 0.1% in June, the first one-month advance since the index rose 0.2% in December 2019. The uptick followed a 0.1% decline in May. Import prices from China fell 0.9% over the past year.

The US industrial production rose 5.4% in June, the second gain after a steep drop in March and April, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

This followed a record 12.5% decline in April and a 4.4% drop in March. Industrial production was still down 10.9% compared to pre-COVID-19 trend and production fell at a 42.6% annual rate in the second quarter, the largest quarterly decline since right after the end of the Second World War.

US crude oil refinery inputs decreased during the week ending July 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.

US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.3 million barrels per day (b/d) last week, 38,000 b/d less than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 78.1% of their operable capacity last week.

Key economic data slated for release today include China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for Q2, the US weekly unemployment claims, its unemployment rate and retail sales for June, and the eurozone trade balance for May.