SMM7 March 14 News: today, the enthusiasm of bulls in the daytime non-ferrous market faded, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin rose, Shanghai zinc was flat, copper, aluminum and lead fell in varying degrees. Shanghai copper fell 0.29%, after hitting a high yesterday, Shanghai copper today shock adjustment. For this wave of rise in copper prices, the industry believes that it is mainly affected by four factors: the first is the loose policy environment and abundant liquidity, the second is the supply-side interference is still continuing, and the third is the improvement of demand at home and abroad. finally, global inventories are low, which is at a historically low level. In terms of nickel, at the "2020 (Fifth) China International Nickel-Cobalt-Lithium Summit Forum" and the China International Nickel-Cobalt Industry chain Summit held by SMM, Liu Yuqiao, a senior analyst of the nickel industry in Shanghai Nonferrous net, conducted a price review and market forecast on the 2019m / 2022 Chinese nickel market. With the increase of the import of nickel pig iron in Indonesia, the domestic supply of nickel pig iron is becoming more and more abundant, and the amount of domestic stainless steel plants using nickel pig iron instead of pure nickel has reached a peak since last year. The overall trend of nickel pig iron this year is mainly a small accumulation bank. More Indonesian nickel pig iron will enter in the future, squeezing out the share of domestic nickel pig iron. "check the details.
In terms of black, iron ore rose again by 2.44%, and steel turned red at the end of the plate. Iron ore futures hit a maximum of 845 yuan per ton, a new high since August last year. Domestic crude steel production has remained high thanks to market optimism about a rapid economic recovery, and torrential rains in the south have led to the construction of 150 water conservancy projects. Steel mills have a strong demand for iron ore. In terms of spot trading, the current snail trend is weak, the spot market price is mainly stable in early trading, but the transaction is poor, terminal demand and speculative demand are wait and see, and the mainstream transaction price is slightly reduced by about 10 yuan / ton around noon, which still fails to significantly drive the transaction, and most traders are willing to push up the price on the strong side.
Crude oil fell 1.28% in the previous period. Crude oil futures fell more than 2 per cent at one point on Tuesday on concerns that new restrictions on business activities in the US to curb rising coronavirus cases could threaten the nascent recovery in fuel demand, and OPEC+ is expected to decide at its upcoming meeting to ease production cuts from August. Us crude oil futures fell 65 cents, or 1.62%, to $39.45 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell 59 cents, or 1.38%, to $42.13 a barrel.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
In terms of capital flows, more than 1 billion of funds have flowed out of the commodity market today. Precious metal plate and black chain both lost more than 600 million yuan. From a variety point of view, coke and Shanghai silver suffered the heaviest losses, with 554 million and 378 million capital outflows respectively. The oil plate has become the focus of gold absorption, with a daily harvest of 718 million yuan, of which palm oil has a monopoly of 406 million yuan. Index funds appear differentiation, IC will be 2.883 billion yuan into the bag, IF and IH are both abandoned by funds.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on July 14th
Copper: today's 09 contract position has exceeded 08 contract, Shanghai Copper position to complete the change of the month. Today, the Shanghai Copper 09 contract opened at 52470 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the copper price fell rapidly, exploring an intraday low of 51800 yuan / ton. then the bulls gradually increased the copper price upward, and the center of gravity stabilized at 52190 yuan / ton until the close before noon. Opening in the afternoon, the bulls made a profit and left the market, the market declined, and the copper price fell to 51890 yuan / ton. At this time, the bulls increased their positions and pulled up the copper price for a short time. Near the end of the day, the bulls reduced positions fluctuated and finally closed at 52190 yuan, down 120 yuan, down 0.23%. During the day, 09 contracts increased their positions by 3033 to 111000, mainly as short positions increased, with trading volume reduced by 35000 to 128000; 08 contracts opened at 52490 yuan / ton in the morning, closed at 52210 yuan / ton, and reduced positions by 6828 to 108000 in the day. Long and short parties accelerated the reduction of their positions, and the trading volume decreased by 82000 to 190000. With delivery approaching, the monthly contract of Shanghai Copper today reduced its position by another 3540 to 4445. At present, Shanghai Copper has a contango structure, and the price difference between 08 contract and 07 contract fluctuates around 30 yuan / ton. During the day, copper in Shanghai fell, mainly due to the impact of the linkage of international oil prices. Saudi Arabia proposed that OPEC+ discuss cutting production from 9.6 million b / d to 7.7 million b / d at its meeting on July 15, as concerns about the contradiction between supply and demand stimulated the market as the epidemic continued to affect the recovery of crude oil demand. Us oil and cloth oil fell today, dragging down copper prices. In addition, Sino-US relations continue to be strained, market preference has been suppressed, and the upward trend of copper prices has been hampered. Today, Shanghai copper negative, KDJ opening down expansion, but below is still far away from all moving averages, the uplink channel has not changed. Wait for the outer disk guidelines at night to test whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to support copper prices to continue to rise.
Zinc: within the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18180 yuan / ton, and the market risk appetite at the beginning of the session was suppressed, and non-ferrous metals fell rapidly. Lun Zinc reduced its position and fell to 17920 yuan / ton, and funds were further evacuated in the afternoon. Zinc fell to the bottom of 17790 yuan / ton, and then the V word reversed backfilling part of the decline, only touching as high as 18035 yuan / ton was blocked. It closed at 17930 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, or 0.25%. The trading volume increased by 41961 lots to 170000 lots, and the position increased by 4466 lots to 85301 lots. Zinc closed for a long time on the positive column, rising after ushering in a larger correction, mainly due to the rapid decline in US crude oil brought about by the macro optimism convergence drag, the fundamentals have not changed greatly, the current capital outflow is relatively limited, zinc is expected to continue to run at a high level in the evening, waiting for news guidance.
Lead: within days, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 15475 yuan / ton. In early trading, basic metals fell, and Shanghai lead then fell through the daily average line, supported by 15355 yuan / ton, rebounded slightly, and adjusted sideways around 15415 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai lead first suppressed and then rose, following the V-shaped reversal of the Shanghai Composite Index and the non-ferrous metals plate, reaching an intraday low of 15295 yuan / ton, ending at 15365 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, or 0.61%. The position decreased by 2776 to 22292, and the trading volume increased by 24 to 34504. Shanghai lead recorded a long shadow line, KDJ indicators showed signs of convergence, coupled with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets began to enter the technical adjustment stage, Shanghai lead is expected to have a small correction in the short term. It should also be noted that there are only 6870 positions left in the 07 contract, and today's warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7142 tons to 33098 tons, leaving a shortfall of only about 1000 tons. In that month, the contract has shown signs of smooth delivery. The price difference between Yuanyue 09 contract and main 08 contract has been reduced to 75 yuan / ton, indicating that the main funds have been gradually transferred to Yuanyue contract.
Tin: the main 2009 contract of Shanghai tin opened at 143900 yuan / ton last night, fell slightly after the opening, followed by a pullback, followed by horizontal concussion, the center of gravity moved up after the middle of the market, hit the intraday high of 144400 yuan / ton above, and jumped down in late trading. Opened at 142820 yuan / ton in the morning, continued the downward trend at the end of the night after opening, fluctuated all the way down, reached a daily low of 141670 yuan / ton, rebounded after hitting the bottom, and rebounded again after a small drop in the afternoon. After opening in the afternoon, there was a slight concussion down, and then rebounded. There was a decline in late trading, closing at 142740 yuan / ton. There is a shady line within the day, the entity part is above all moving averages, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average. The lower support level is expected to be near the 5-day moving average of 141500 yuan / ton.
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