[SMM afternoon Review] Foreign trade imports and exports are better than expected. Iron ore continues to rise 1.65% in the non-ferrous market.

SMM7 March 14: the non-ferrous metals market maintained volatility in the morning, with Shanghai Nickel up 0.96%, while Shanghai Copper today is in a pullback, down 0.42%. From a macro point of view, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs today showed that China's imports and exports increased by 5.1% in June compared with the same period last year, of which exports increased by 4.3%, which has maintained positive growth for three consecutive months since April. Imports increased by 6.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China's foreign trade fell 3.2% from the same period last year, 1.7 percentage points lower than in the previous five months. In terms of copper, China imported 1.594 million tons of copper ore and its concentrate in June, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs. China exported 354038.1 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June and 2365895.4 tons from January to June. Copper prices showed a sharp correction at the start of trading this morning, dragged down by the collapse in international oil prices. Global liquidity easing is expected to superimpose the strength of copper's own fundamentals, and copper prices still have long-term upward momentum. [SMM analysis] the collapse in oil prices has dragged down the short-term diving of copper prices and still has upward momentum for a long time.

At the Fifth China International Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium Summit Forum hosted by SMM, SMM analyst Huo Yuan said that the global epidemic affected the weakening of global cobalt raw material supply in 2020, replaced the mainstream position of copper and cobalt mines, and focused on the growth of recycling supply in the future. Global cobalt raw materials may reach the balance of supply and demand in 2025, and then begin to be out of stock. SMM expects the average price of electrolytic cobalt in China to be 251000 yuan / ton in 2020. Global cobalt demand for 2020 is 139000 tons of metal tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year. SMM estimates that the global demand for cobalt for lithium electricity accounts for 61% of the total demand for cobalt in 2022.

In terms of black, iron ore rose 1.65%, hot rolls fell 0.11%, and fell 0.21%. On the steel demand side, apparent consumption rebounded as scheduled last week, but the southern rainy season continues or hinders the recovery of demand, and strong expectations in the market are expected to have a greater impact on the spot once the tide ebbs. The earthquake in Guye District of Tangshan continues to pay attention to the concern about reduction. The pressure on the port of iron ore has been alleviated recently, and if it continues in the future, the pressure of port inventory may persist. On the demand side, the daily average of iron ore ports continues to be high.

Crude oil fell 2.09% in the previous period. Crude oil futures fell more than 2% on Tuesday on concerns that new restrictions in California and other states could threaten the nascent recovery in fuel demand. Us crude oil futures fell 2.37% to $39.15 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell 2.01% to $41.86 a barrel.

Close by noon

Today's spot

Copper: today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose by 40 per cent to the monthly contract, with an average price drop of 25 yuan per ton, while the average price of wet copper paste fell by 40 yuan per ton in 10 ~ flat water. The average price of electrolytic copper is 52095 yuan / ton, and the average price of wet process copper is 52050 yuan / ton. Spot market: Guangdong inventories soared for two consecutive days, increasing by more than 7400 tons, or 41 per cent, to 25500 tons in just two days. Affected by this, the holder continued to adjust the price for shipment. by 11:00, flat copper had dropped to 20,30 yuan / ton, and there was even a discount on wet-process copper, while good copper remained at 100 yuan / ton due to delivery reasons. In terms of market trading, due to a certain correction in copper prices today, and rising water is lower, some downstream began to replenish, but the purchase volume is still limited; and traders affected by the approaching delivery, trading is not active. Overall, the trading atmosphere in the market today is better than yesterday, but it has not returned to the normal level. Finally, it is reported that copper imports are still arriving in Hong Kong this week, and stocks are still rising.

Zinc: the mainstream transaction of Ningbo Brand was 17940mur18040 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was narrowed from 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was reduced to around 2008 yuan / ton. Today, zinc prices are high and fluctuating, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is still weak. In the first trading session, traders continued to quote yesterday. Tiefeng reported that the water rose around 70 yuan / ton for the August contract. West Mining News is around 60 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Kirin and Huize News are around 80 yuan / ton for the August contract. There has been no obvious change in the rising water in the follow-up market. Today, market trading is still dominated by traders, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is very weak. today, the market turnover is basically flat compared with yesterday, still maintaining a light trend.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18010mur1890 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18060mur18120 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19320 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract quoted water 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, Zijin to August contract quoted water 150 yuan / ton around, the Tianjin market rose from 40 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Today, the price of zinc in Shanghai has gone up and down, and the discount price has been raised on the spot market, and the price is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News has quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi has quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Yunxi Daily quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Sihuan (delivered to) quoted a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including the depot) quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Today, zinc prices have gone up and down, and traders have delivered goods at a positive price, but the overall transaction is not smooth, and there are also some traders selling goods at low prices. Downstream, the absolute price today has not changed much from yesterday, and the purchasing mood is still weak. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin today is the same as that of yesterday. Zinc ingots were sold at around 17940 million yuan per ton.

Tin: spot market. Today's quotation is 140500 RMB143500 per ton. Shanghai tin noodles first suppressed and then rose this morning, the price level was lower than yesterday, and the average net price fell 250 yuan / ton. Prices are still high, the lower reaches of the market just need to purchase, traders receive a small number of goods, the overall spot market trading atmosphere is generally weak. Liter discount, the Shanghai tin 2008 contract set Yunxi rose about 500yuan / ton, near Yunzi Pingshui, small-brand discount 2000mil 2500 yuan / ton.

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