7.13 minutes of the Bronze Morning meeting
[summary of SMM Copper Morning meeting] Macro: 1) according to market news, OPEC + is about to relax the scale of production cuts, and Saudi Arabia proposes to reduce the scale of production cuts from 9.7 million b / d to 7.7 million b / d in August. [bearish] 2) the people's Bank of China released a statistical report on the stock of social financing in June. According to preliminary statistics, the stock of social financing at the end of June was 271.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.8 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first half of the year was 20.83 trillion yuan, 6.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. [Lido] fundamentals:
Copper concentrate as of last Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was at $50.30 / ton, down $1.07 / ton from the previous month. In terms of overseas mines, the mine operating rate in Peru continued to pick up in June. According to the Freeport announcement, the operation of the Cerro Verde copper mine resumed smoothly in June, with an operating rate of 80% of the 2019 average. In addition, its Lone Star project in North America is almost completed and is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year. First Quantum also announced that it would resume production of Cobre Panama copper, which has been overhauled and maintained since early April, and the company said it expected to reach full capacity by mid-August. 2) the average weekly price of scrap copper was 44930 yuan / ton last week, up 700 yuan from the previous month, and the average weekly price difference of refined copper was 2125 yuan / ton, an increase of 32 yuan / ton compared with last week. Last week, copper prices strongly broke through the 50, 000 mark, continue to be good for the scrap copper industry, dismantling enterprises are taking advantage of high copper prices to speed up dismantling and shipping. As far as SMM knows, the larger dismantling site in South China is hot, but the inventory level of finished products in the yard is not much, and the turnover of scrap copper is smooth. The rise in copper prices is good for the supply of scrap copper, all of which are supporting the continuous expansion of the price gap of fine scrap, and the demand for relatively cheap scrap rods is maintained well, which makes the enterprise production enthusiasm high, and the overall demand for scrap in the waste industry is still strong, while it is subdivided into individual enterprises. because of the high copper price, the willingness to take risks to hoard goods is low, and materials are fed on demand to avoid risks. 3) imported copper last week (July 6-July 10) the trading range of Yangshan copper premium warehouse receipt was US $85 / ton, and the bill of lading was US $76mur88 / ton. The number of offers made by traders is limited, and some sellers choose to wait and see to quote next week, while the shipping date of this part of the goods is not near, and traders still have expectations for an improvement in parity, so the offer price is relatively strong. Last week, the foreign trade market continued the cold market the week before last, and the price gap between buyers and sellers was difficult to eliminate, leading to a deal stalemate. Domestic copper consumption is weaker than the previous month, and overseas demand is in the pace of recovery. at present, LME presents a goods premium structure, the inventory downward trend remains unchanged, and the proportion of written-off warehouse receipts rises to 51.07%, which still exerts pressure on the recovery of the premium, and it is expected that there is still room for Yangshan copper premium to be reduced in the short term. 4) LME copper stocks decreased by 4125 tons to 181075 tons on July 10, while copper stocks in the previous period increased by 23018 tons to 137336 tons compared with the previous period. 5) spot East China: on July 10, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot quoted a discount of 10 to 20 yuan / ton for that month's contract. On the spot side, as the delivery period approaches, the intermonthly basis continues to narrow, limiting the rising water downward space, but the rising water is also difficult to rise under the market fear of heights. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 30 RMB50 / ton today. South China: on July 10, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province was quoted as a price rise of 160 won 190 for that month's contract, with an average price increase of 55 yuan / ton. Spot market: inventories continue to decline, and holders are firmly willing to raise prices, but near the weekend and the number of shippers increases significantly, rising water falls; however, some holders suddenly raise prices, but there are not many high-rise underwater buyers. On the whole, the Guangdong market was chaotic on Friday, with both bullish and bearish rising water, but excessive rising water suppressed trading sentiment in the market. We believe that the recent tight supply in Guangdong is the main reason for the great divergence in the market. We do not expect a large number of goods to arrive before delivery, and the rising water in the first half of next week may remain at a high level, making it difficult to plummet.
Copper price and forecast: last Friday night, Lun copper closed at 6429 US dollars / ton, up 2.1%. The trading volume was 22000 lots, and the long position increased by 3368 to 306000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 51930 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.83%, and the trading volume was 110000 lots. Long positions increased by 2775 to 118000 lots. Last Friday night, after finishing at the US $6300 front line, Lun Copper quickly broke the 6400 mark, and the Shanghai copper night market also opened high, approaching the position of 52000 yuan. On the macro side, there are signs that the new crown treatment has made progress, US stocks and crude oil have increased significantly, and the improvement of risk sentiment is good for copper prices. In addition, the market is worried about the result of the strike vote in the two mines owned by Anto. Due to the severe epidemic situation in Chile, it is expected that negotiations will be hindered, and the supply-side positive stack will stimulate a significant rise in copper prices, which is expected to continue to be strong this week. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6500 won 6600 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 52500 won 53000 yuan / ton.