Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / Stir up trouble again! The United States raises another tariff stick to take action against France Trump spends a lot of money to denigrate Biden China reminds Chinese citizens in Kazakhstan to guard against unknown pneumonia, the fatality rate is much hig
Stir up trouble again! The United States raises another tariff stick to take action against France Trump spends a lot of money to denigrate Biden China reminds Chinese citizens in Kazakhstan to guard against unknown pneumonia, the fatality rate is much hig
Jul 10,2020 09:46CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: last night, the official WeChat account "Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan" issued a "reminder to Chinese citizens in Kazakhstan to guard against unknown pneumonia." According to Kazakh media reports, the incidence of pneumonia in Atrou, Akjiubin and Chimkent has increased significantly since mid-June compared with the same period. So far, nearly 500 people in the three places have been infected and more than 30 are critically ill. In the first half of this year, the pneumonia killed a total of 1772 people, including Chinese citizens in June alone. The fatality rate of the disease is much higher than that of new coronary pneumonia. The Ministry of Health and other agencies are conducting a comparative study of the pneumonia virus, which has not yet been clearly identified. The Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan reminds Chinese citizens in Kazakhstan to pay attention to the above situation, earnestly enhance their awareness of prevention and reduce the risk of infection.

On July 9, local time, WHO released the latest daily epidemic report of new crown pneumonia, with 204967 new cases of new crown pneumonia and 5575 new deaths worldwide. The number of confirmed cases in the most severe region of the Americas reached 6125802 (121117 new cases) and 272606 deaths (3778 new cases).

The vaccine from MODERNA, the US drug company, is likely to enter the advanced stage of phase III clinical trials by the end of July, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said yesterday.

The US government formally informed UN Secretary-General Guterres on the 6th that he would withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) in July next year. According to reports, the Lancet, a British medical journal, published a commentary jointly signed by several US scholars online on the 9th, saying that the withdrawal of the United States from the WHO will have a serious negative impact on the security, diplomacy and influence of the United States.

The commentary article "in those years, the" group "that the United States withdrew said that the US government often" changed its face "," broke its contract "and" withdrew from the group at a time of disagreement. "the world was ashamed of such wayward behavior. The US Government's selfish attitude of "teaching me to be negative to the rest of the world", the robber logic of "only allowing state officials to set fires and not allowing people to light lamps" and the bullying act of "going back on their promises and saying one thing and doing another" will only put themselves in the opposite direction of the entire international community and the opposite of the historical trend. Although the United States "quitting the group" has its own plans to think about it, we still want to advise you not to be too clever and miss Qing's life.

According to the Associated Press on July 9, Trump, 74, has invested millions of dollars in media ads to denigrate Biden, the most important of which is that the 77-year-old Biden is too old to be president.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that prosecutors in New York have access to President Trump's financial records, including tax returns. Unlike recent presidents, Trump has refused to release his tax returns and other financial documents, making it impossible for outsiders to know the details of his wealth and family business. Even though he has sought to run for re-election, these financial records have not been made public, prompting widespread skepticism.

According to sources, the United States plans to take action against France on taxing technology companies, and the tariff list could include French goods worth between $500 million and $700 million.

On July 9, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech to the Media Video Forum, a Sino-US think tank. Wang Yi said that the claim that the success of China's road will pose an impact and threat to the West is neither true nor do we agree with it. Because China, nurtured by 5,000 years of civilization, has never had the gene for aggression and expansion, we do not copy foreign models, nor do we export Chinese models, nor do we ask other countries to copy China's practices. China will not and cannot become another America. The correct attitude is to respect each other, appreciate each other, learn from each other and achieve each other.

Defense Department spokesman Ren Guoqiang answered questions on the 9th on the news released by the US Department of Defense accusing China of military exercises in the South China Sea. Ren Guoqiang said: the US Department of Defense ignores the facts, confuses black and white, sows discord with regional-state relations, and vainly attempts to profit from it, and we express strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to this. It is hoped that the US side will reflect on itself, stop its military provocative actions in the South China Sea, stop its baseless smear accusations against China, stop sowing discord with countries in the region, and stop creating tension.

Recently, Douyin (the international version of TikTok) has been pushed to the forefront of the storm. Douyin faces another major challenge in the United States, the second largest overseas market, after it was banned by India, the largest overseas market, and lost 30% of its overseas users. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said Monday night local time that the United States is considering restricting Chinese social media apps such as TikTok, (CNN) reported Monday night. In an interview with the media, he hinted that the US government might take action.

In response to this at the regular meeting of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 8 July, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that the remarks made by individual people on the US side were completely fabricated and maliciously smeared. The Chinese government has always required Chinese enterprises to carry out foreign economic cooperation on the basis of compliance with the law. If, according to the logic of the US side, many US social media companies have a huge user base around the world, is it not a huge security threat to countries all over the world? They should be subject to the common supervision and evaluation of the international community. Zhao Lijian further said: we urge some people on the US side to correct their mindset, abandon their prejudices, not judge others by themselves, stop using state machinery to crack down on Chinese enterprises, and do more things that are conducive to promoting Sino-US relations.

However, just as the United States launched an attack on Douyin, French President Macron signed up for TikTok, and released the first video.

On July 10, the three major US stock indexes diverged, with the S & P 500 closing down 17.90 points, or 0.56%, at 3152.05; the NASDAQ closed up 55.30 points, or 0.53%, at 10547.75; and the Dow Jones Index closed down 361.20 points, or 1.39%, at 25706.09.

European stock markets closed lower, with Germany's DAX index closing down 14.41 points, or 0.12%, at 12480.40; Britain's FTSE index closed down 106.00, or 1.72%, at 6050.16; France's CAC40 index closed down 60.12, or 1.21%, at 4921.01; and Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 91.40, or 1.25%, at 7235.00. Italy's FTSE index closed down 386.03, or 1.94%, at 19513.50, while the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 24.64, or 0.75%, at 3261.45.

In the international commodity market, COMEX gold closed down 0.71% at US $1807.7 / oz, while COMEX silver closed down 0.74% at US $19.02 / oz. Us Oil's August contract closed down 3.2% at $39.59 / barrel, WTI8 monthly crude oil futures closed down $1.28, or 3.13% at $39.62 / barrel, and Brent September crude oil futures closed down 94%, or 2.71%, at $42.35 / barrel. The crude oil futures SC2008 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.67% at 294.10 yuan per barrel in night trading.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States continued to fall, and US stocks changed from rising to falling.

Last night, the Labor Department released the latest data showing that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was 1.314 million, lower than the 1.375 million expected by Bloomberg. The previous week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was revised to 1.413 million. The number of people who renewed jobless benefits was 18.062 million, expected to be 18.95 million, with a previous value of 19.29 million. It is understood that the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States fell for the 14th week in a row, but at the same time, the number of first-time jobless claims exceeded 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks. The labour market has improved since May as the US economy restarts.

After the release of the data, US stocks did not fluctuate much in the short term and then opened slightly higher. Among them, the S & P 500 opened up 7.10 points, or 0.22%, at 3177.05; the NASDAQ opened up 68.90 points, or 0.66%, at 10561.43; and the Dow Jones index opened up 7.90 points, or 0.03%, at 26075.18.

However, shortly after the opening of trading, the three major US stocks changed from rising to falling.

Bostick, president of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, said that the economy is still in the mode of recovery within a year, the economic recovery among regions and communities will be uneven, and the economy will not return to the level before the new crown pneumonia epidemic in mid-2021 or 2022.

"I think there will be a second decline in US stocks, which is reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s, when people realized the depth and destruction of the recession and that it would take a long time for the economy to recover," Gary (A. Gary Shilling), a senior economist and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co, said in a recent interview with CNBC. He believes that the US stock market is now behaving very much like the rebound in 1929, with people absolutely confident that the virus will be brought under control and that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will revive the economy. He added that the US stock market could fall as much as 40 per cent next year.

The trend of precious metals has reversed again, and the Neng Hua plate continues to decline.

Last night, international oil prices plummeted in intraday trading. The decline in the US oil contract for August quickly widened to 2.5 per cent, falling below the $40 mark, while the September contract for cloth oil fell 1.8 per cent. Affected by the plunge in oil prices, US energy stocks fell more, with ExxonMobil down 1.74%, Chevron down 1.91%, ConocoPhillips down 2.78%, Schlumberger down 1.6% and Western oil down 2.72%.

Some market analysts believe that international oil prices fell last night, mainly because investors are concerned about economic data and the new crown virus pandemic. Although the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was better than expected, there are still fears that some parts of the United States will fall into a second blockade.

Li Weiming, a researcher at Guangzhou Futures Energy, said that on July 9, the domestic futures market energy sector continued its optimism since July. The Wenhua chemical sector index rose 0.23% slightly, but the night market chemical sector followed the sharp decline in international oil prices. The trend in the future is likely to continue to divide.

Since late April, there has been a marked differentiation in the futures prices of solid and liquid chemicals. As the inventory of liquid chemical industry is generally high, and the inventory of varieties such as polyolefin and PVC continues to be eliminated, the inventory pressure alone is far less than that of liquid chemicals, forming the trend of multi-solid varieties of empty liquid varieties in the chemical plate. " He further said that in the night trading of July 9, from the point of view of the change of position, the decline of styrene and ethylene glycol was accompanied by a significant increase in position, which confirmed the fierce confrontation of the contradiction between long and short. If crude oil prices enter the adjustment trend in the future, the impact on liquid varieties such as ethylene glycol and styrene may be more obvious, and the pattern of "multi-solid empty liquid" may continue.

At the same time, the trend of gold has also reversed. During the daytime trading session yesterday, the domestic futures market closed red in a large area, with precious metals leading the way, with Shanghai silver up nearly 3% and Shanghai gold up nearly 1%. But last night, spot gold fell sharply in the short term, falling below the $1800 / oz mark, down about 0.5 per cent on the day, while spot silver fell more than 1 per cent at one point. Us gold stocks weakened along with spot gold, with HMY.N down 5.35 per cent in the short term, NEM.N down 2 per cent and GOLD.N down 1.6 per cent.

"Silver is very difficult to get out of the independent market relative to gold, generally after the rising trend of gold is determined, capital flows into silver with greater flexibility. Speculative funds prefer silver because of its low price and flexibility, and the increase in the rising market is greater than that of gold. " As for the trend of the precious metals plate in yesterday's trading, Xu Ying, an analyst of precious metals in Eastern Securities Futures, said that due to the gradual rebound of the Chinese economy and the weakening of the US dollar index, the overall performance of industrial products has been strong recently, especially non-ferrous metals, from the perspective of industrial properties. it's also bullish silver.

Looking forward to the later stage, Xu Ying believes that the recovery rate of the US economy in the third quarter and the second half of the year is expected to be slow, and it is expected that it will be difficult for the economy to recover to "the surge in US government debt means that interest rates will remain low for a long time, negative real interest rates will help digest debt, and the Fed will continue its loose tone, which will put pressure on the dollar index."

For the precious metals sector, she believes that at present, market funds are flowing into precious metals, gold and silver ETF holdings are increasing, and in the short and medium term, a 10 per cent rise can be expected, and it is estimated that the operating space for gold prices is 1720mur1890 US dollars / ounce. "in the third quarter or this year, we think that the price of gold is likely to break through the all-time high, and silver is expected to rise more than gold. At this stage, the rising cycle of precious metals is far from over, so it is recommended to treat more. "

The atmosphere of the stock market continues to be hot, and the trend of the futures index is divided.

In the domestic market, the "bull market" trend of the domestic stock market continued yesterday. By the close of trading on July 9, the turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets again exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.39% to 3450 points on the day, rising for eight consecutive days. The gem index closed up nearly 4%. Northbound funds flowed 7.951 billion yuan that day, with a total net inflow of 181.06 billion yuan so far this year.

Under the hot stock market, there is also good news in the capital market. Yesterday, both the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar broke through the seven levels, returning to the "six times". As of last night's close, the onshore renminbi closed at 6.9915 against the dollar, up 134bp from the previous day's night trading with a turnover of $30.995 billion.

Financial futures are up and down. In terms of stock index futures, IC2007 contracts closed up nearly 3%. If 2007 contracts rose more than 1%, but IH2007 contracts fell nearly 1%, while treasury bond futures fell significantly across the board.

"the trends of the three groups of futures indexes were different after opening low in the morning, with the IF and IC weighted indices showing a strong performance and showing a unilateral upward trend. The index fluctuated widely after rising in the afternoon, but only the IH weighted index closed down in late trading, while the rest were up more than 1%. The IHhand IC2007 contract narrowed 273bp to 1.0212." Yan Xingyue, a macro researcher of the Shanghai medium-term stock index, said that there are two factors leading the rise in the IC index, on the one hand, from valuation. According to the valuation compiled by her, among the current spot indexes corresponding to the three groups of futures indexes, only the IC index is still in the deep opportunity value region, while the other two groups of indexes IF are close to the risk value region, and IH is in the holding stage of the median region. From the investment opportunities of the three groups of indexes, IC is favored by the market. On the other hand, it comes from the switch between indices, with IF and IH rising a lot in the early period, with the 2*IH/IC ratio as high as 1.0912, a new high since February this year. In the bull market, the index should show a general upward trend, which determines that IC will have an upward process in the near future to pull the ratio back again.

In her view, in the short and medium term, due to the rapid rise in the index leading to a substantial increase in valuation, the quarterly report for the third quarter has not yet been fully released, and the market cannot digest the rapidly rising valuation in time. At the same time, various economic data are about to be released in the middle of the month, and it is expected that the data may not be as expected by the market, which will also form a certain degree of pressure on the market, so there is a risk of a pullback in the later period. "however, in the medium to long term, we still adhere to the 'long bull' train of thought." Yan Xingyue believes that at present, with the strengthening of domestic financial reform and the increasing degree of opening up to the outside world, China's A-shares are in a global depression of value, and China's various institutional advantages will also be highlighted under the impact of the current epidemic, thus attracting a large amount of external capital.

The current trend deviated, and egg futures fell for two days in a row.

In addition, during the day yesterday, the egg 2009 contract closed at 3898 yuan / 500kg, down more than 2%, leading the domestic futures market down. since the beginning of this week, the price of the main contract for egg futures has fallen for two consecutive days.

"JD2009 contract repeatedly tried 4000 yuan / 500kg first line failed, yesterday significantly increased the position fell. The spot market price of eggs rose yesterday, and the trend of egg market period and spot prices deviated, mainly from the deviation between expectation and reality. " Che Hongting, an analyst of agricultural products in founder's mid-term futures, said that the rising water in the market has injected seasonal rising expectations, but the loose pattern of supply and demand in the egg market is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Superimposed by the recent extreme weather background such as high temperature and humidity in the southern sales area and heavy rain in many places, the shipping pressure of egg merchants has increased, and the rebound in the spot market may not be as expected, which weakens the confidence in the futures market. At present, the high temperature, humidity and rainstorm weather in the south affect the storage and transportation of eggs, restricting the trend of short-term egg prices, and then supported by the seasonal peak season in the city, the spot market prices of eggs will show a steady and warm trend.

She believes that according to the expectation of supply and demand, the laying rate of laying hens will drop by 2.98% in June compared with the previous month, and the proportion of laying hens will decline during the peak laying period in the future. however, in view of the fact that there are not many old chickens of the right age to be scavenged, and the overall supply is abundant, with the advent of the traditional peak consumption season, the egg market price will hit bottom and rebound, and the rebound height will also be suppressed by the slow process of capacity removal, or lower than the level of the same period in previous years. And after the festive effect fades, the egg market price still faces the risk of phase correction, on the contrary, if super-Amoy or shipment is accelerated, it is expected to boost the egg market out of the trough ahead of time. "from the perspective of the futures market, the rise of the main 2009 contract is relatively high, and in the basis repair stage, the futures market still has the risk of callback, relying on 4000 yuan / 500kg near the empty bill to set protection and hold, rebounding and testing ideas to participate mainly. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the impact of logistics and the progress of elimination of old chickens."

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