7.10 铜晨会纪要

On the macro level: 1) the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to July 4 recorded 1.314 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.375 million and also lower than the previous value of 1.413 million. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell for the 14th week in a row, but more than 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks. 2) OPEC + cut production by 10.6 million b / d in June, 900000 b / d more than the production reduction agreement. Fundamentals: 1) Copper scrap rose 600 yuan / ton on July 9. According to SMM, copper prices are good for the scrap copper industry. Recently, some scrap copper dismantling yards in Guangdong are OK, and the start of disassembly is relatively good, while the overall demand for scrap downstream is still exuberant, and the transaction price is in the high range. 2) on July 9, the warehouse receipt for imported copper was quoted at US $85 per ton, with an average price unchanged from the previous day, while the bill of lading quoted US $77 per ton, with an increase of US $1 per ton over the previous day. The LME0-3 discount is $1.75 / ton, and the import loss is around 150 yuan / ton. Thanks to the rapid appreciation of the renminbi in recent days, import losses have narrowed. In the case of multi-day transaction performance stalemate, the buyer's cautious wait-and-see mood has eased, while the holder mostly maintained the previous offer. The price difference between buyers and sellers has narrowed, the market transaction has improved slightly, and the average transaction price has risen slightly. The warehouse unilaterally extended the cold market of a few days ago, with a limited number of offers and unheard of transactions. 3) inventory on July 9, LME copper inventory decreased by 6825 tons to 185200 tons compared with the previous period; copper warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1173 tons to 41462 tons compared with the previous period. 4) spot East China: on July 9, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to that month's contract quoted flat water ~ litre water 40 yuan / ton. On the spot side, the market was afraid of heights yesterday, and traders shipped at reduced prices for high prices, and it is expected that there is still room for a pullback today. It is expected that the spot discount today is 10-litre 30 yuan / ton. South China: on July 9, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose by 110 won 130 to the contract for the same month, with an average price increase of 55 yuan / ton. Spot market: although inventories have risen slightly, the supply of goods that can be circulated in the market is very scarce, the vast majority of smelters do not have zero orders, and there are few traders with goods. Affected by this, there was no firm price in the market yesterday, and it was not actually quoted until after 10 o'clock, and the price was extremely high, but the market was really difficult to get, and the consignees were forced to accept the high supply of goods. Overall, the shortage of negotiable goods in Guangdong is the main reason for rising water. We estimate that the situation will continue until before delivery, and it is expected that rising water will continue to show a volatile and higher situation. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun copper closed at US $6297 / ton, up 0.98%, trading volume of 23000 lots, bulls increased their positions by 3611 to 303000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 50490 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 80, 000 lots, and the bulls reduced their positions by 3682 to 117000 lots. Panlun copper surged as high as $6360 a tonne yesterday afternoon before a pullback began at night and fell short of more than $60 a tonne around 22:00. After opening high, copper prices in Shanghai also adjusted downwards until copper prices stabilized and rebounded at the end of the day. Last night's copper price correction was mainly affected by the sharp increase in the number of new crown cases in the United States. Last night, US stocks fell sharply by 3% of crude oil prices to put pressure on copper prices, reining in the recent rally. The epidemic situation in South America is still an important support for supply pressure, but the return of Sino-US trade relations is expected to put pressure on risky assets in the short term, and copper prices are expected to face pullback shocks today. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6250PY 6320 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 50300PUE 50700 yuan / ton.