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[SMM Daily Review] non-ferrous metals continue to strengthen Shanghai copper futures hit another record high supply of iron ore fell by more than 2%
Jul 7,2020 16:39CST
translation
Source:SMM
The rally in the non-ferrous market continued today, with Shanghai nickel up 1.12%, Shanghai copper up 0.96%, and Shanghai lead and tin up about 0.3%.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 7: the daytime non-ferrous market continued today, with Shanghai nickel up 1.12%, Shanghai copper up 0.96%, and Shanghai lead, Shanghai tin up about 0.3%. On the copper side, with the acceleration of the process of resuming work and production around the world, coupled with the flood of liquidity, copper prices continued the momentum of rebound in April and May showed a sharp rise. The Shanghai Copper Index rose 10.86% in June, up 4770 yuan per ton, while LME rose 12.25%, up 659 US dollars per ton. European and American countries began to deregulate and resume work one after another in mid-May, and the economy fully improved in June, which is the main reason for the weak and strong families in Shanghai in June. "check the details of wire and cable, according to SMM research, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 103.27% in June, up 1.53% from the previous month, and 13.57% higher than the same period last year. The cable operating rate continued to rise month-on-month in June, continuing the hot market in May, especially large manufacturers said that although the number of orders has declined, there is still no shortage of orders, in a state of full capacity and full production. "check the details.

With regard to aluminum, on July 6, the Q3 batch volume of traditional six types of waste aluminum was announced. Even though the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said last week that the batch volume would be reduced in the second half of the year, some enterprises indicated to the SMM that their approval volume had not decreased compared with Q2, and in terms of the published quantity, indeed, even a small number of enterprises approved a slight increase for this purpose, and the ninth batch of approval documents included a total of 54 enterprises. It is basically the same as the 53 enterprises contained in the first batch 5 approval documents of Q2. "View details."

Black iron ore rose 2.68%, hot coil rose 0.81%, and thread rose 0.53%. Today's sharp rise in iron ore is mainly due to the decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil and the tightening of imports to boost futures prices. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 93 ships arrived at eight major ports in China from June 28 to 7.4, with an estimated arrival volume of 15.79 million tons, a decrease of 400000 tons compared with the previous period. It is worth noting that the current downstream steel demand has not been released, the current southern rainy season led to a weakening of timber consumption, coupled with the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan, iron ore still has a downward risk. Iron ore has not ushered in an absolute strong period now, mainly in the narrow range of 730mur780. "check the details."

Crude oil fell 0.3% in the previous period. International oil prices fell on Tuesday, erasing earlier gains as a surge in the number of new crown virus infections in the United States could hamper the recovery in fuel demand. Us crude oil futures for August fell 0.76% to $40.32 a barrel. ICE9 monthly Brent crude futures fell 0.67% to $42.81 a barrel.

As of today's day close:

Today's capital flow

Optimism waned, with the commodity index losing nearly 600 million. The performance of the three major futures indices is different. IC and IH are still dominated by capital inflows, with a total absorption of more than 2 billion, while IF sadly outflows more than 1 billion of funds. Iron ore led the rise, monopolizing more than 800 million funds, the overall performance of the iron and steel sector is good, harvested nearly 1.2 billion capital blessing. The coke that is still being adjusted has lost more than 900 million yuan, and the coal sector has lost nearly 1.1 billion of its funds.

A brief comment on SMM analysts on July 7th

Copper: today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 49480 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the price of copper fluctuated higher, climbing all the way up to the intraday high of 49610 yuan / ton, then the copper price of short positions fell slightly, and the center of gravity stabilized at 49480 yuan / ton position. It closed at 49520 yuan / ton before noon. When trading opened in the afternoon, bears increased their positions one after another, and copper prices briefly fell to an intraday low of 49300 yuan / ton, then rebounded to close at 49360 yuan / ton, up 470 yuan / ton, or 0.96%. The intraday 08 contract reduced 2695 positions to 114000, mainly short positions; trading volume decreased by 10, 000 to 119000; Shanghai Copper 07 reduced positions by 3770 to 29000, mainly by short positions; trading volume decreased by 4000 to 21000. 09 contract day increase of more than 2500 positions, mainly for long positions, 08mur09 contract spread has narrowed to about 70 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper rose during the day, mainly due to rising optimism about the global economic recovery. Us stocks rose collectively, while the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure released last night rebounded sharply to 57.1 from 45.4 in May, far exceeding expectations of 50 and reaching its highest level since February this year, while Japan's foreign exchange reserves increased again in June after a decline in May, with a public value of US $1.05024 trillion, an increase of US $8.92 billion over the previous month. The continued improvement in the macroeconomic environment has accelerated market optimism and supported the upsurge in copper prices. At present, Lun Copper is still at a high level of more than 6100 US dollars / ton, followed by Shanghai Copper, which closed today. MACD red column narrowed, but there is still a 5-day moving average at the bottom, copper prices upward pattern has not been destroyed. Waiting for the guidance of the outer disk in the evening to test whether Shanghai Copper can continue its upward trend and break through the 49500 yuan / ton mark upward.

Updating.

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