SMM: in May 2020, excavator sales increased by 68%, of which the domestic growth rate was 76%. Guojin Securities Machinery military Industry team predicts that according to the comprehensive judgment of upstream production scheduling and downstream demand, excavator sales growth in June and July are expected to exceed 60% year on year, continuing to exceed market expectations. It is estimated that the growth rate of excavator sales in 2020 is expected to reach about 25%, the growth rate of concrete machinery is expected to maintain 20%, and the growth rate of truck crane is expected to maintain more than 15%.
Guojin Securities further predicted that the performance of the leading construction machinery enterprises in the second quarter is expected to increase significantly by 30%, 50%, or even higher.
The market seems to be confirming that at the 2019 shareholders' meeting just held by Zoomlion, it said that demand was good in the second quarter, orders were full, and delivery of some crane products was scheduled for the first quarter of next year.
Guotai Junan machinery team Huang Kun and other analysts said that the next style of the market is that the end demand is not weak in the off-season, and the industry is expected to maintain a high boom. Since then, the sales growth rate of digging machine in August remains optimistic. Because of its tracking of upstream parts manufacturers, the output of digging oil cylinders grew by more than 70% in June, and the production schedule continued to grow at a high rate in July, indicating that the mainframe factory is very optimistic about the end market.
It is worth noting that the dynamic PE valuation of machinery upstream parts companies (Hengli hydraulic, Aidi Precision) in 2020 is 40-50 times, while that of mainframe factories (Sany, Zoomlion, Xugong Machinery) is generally 12-fold, both of which are in the same performance direction, and the latter is obviously underestimated.
Guotai Junan said that from a comprehensive analysis, the performance of the leading main engine factories is expected to be optimistic, and July is expected to usher in valuation and profit double-click market.
There is room for further improvement in the market share of Sany heavy industry excavators, with a high-end product structure, and the reported performance is expected to increase by about 15%. Zoomlion tower crane grows rapidly with high performance certainty, and the reported performance is expected to increase by about 30%. Xugong machinery mixed reform has entered the stage of listing, follow-up digging machines and other high-quality assets are expected to be listed as a whole, and the performance is expected to be flat or decline slightly.
Guotai Junan Machinery team said that this round of construction machinery growth is mainly driven by stock updating, environmental protection upgrading, manual replacement, changes in use habits, and so on. For example, the demand for stock renewal of excavators has reached 50%, and the cycle volatility is weaker than the previous round. The leading mainframe factory continues to increase its market share with the advantages of brand, technology, service, cost and so on. And the key cultivation of tower crane, aerial work platform and other business has entered a period of rapid growth, the leading mainframe factory still has a certain degree of growth. Considering the current decline in risk-free interest rates, it is expected to promote the rise in the valuation of leading mainframe factories.
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