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[SMM Analysis] supply increases, demand weakens, aluminum bar processing fees fall under pressure.
Jul 3,2020 19:41CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 3:

The arrival of aluminum bars, which is the main place of consumption, has increased this week, and inventories have rebounded. On Thursday, the national inventory of aluminum bars increased by 6900 tons compared with last Wednesday to 73200 tons. Inventory in Wuxi, Changzhou, Huzhou and Nanchang all increased to varying degrees, only inventory in Foshan continued to decline. During the week, the processing fees of aluminum bars also declined to varying degrees. On Friday, the price of aluminum bars in Foshan fell to 430 yuan / ton, that in Wuxi fell to 300 yuan / ton, that in Nanchang fell to 200 yuan / ton, that in Gongyi / Linyi area fell to 300 yuan / ton, and that in Baotou area fell to around 100 yuan / ton.

There are three main reasons for the decline in aluminum bar processing fees during the week:

First, the sharp rise in aluminum-based prices, this week SMM A00 aluminum quotation accumulated up 410 yuan / ton, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) price increase slightly lower, but also reached 350 yuan / ton.

The second is the increase in inventory in the major places of consumption mentioned above, due to the strong demand for aluminum bars in the second quarter and higher-than-average processing fees for aluminum bars, resulting in a rapid increase in the follow-up supply of aluminum bars, which cannot be digested by some producing areas in the north. Turn to increase shipments to the south. Among them, the inventory of aluminum bars in Foshan shows a decline, but the supply of cars outside the warehouse is abundant, some traders and manufacturers do not ship smoothly, and the overall supply of aluminum bars in Guangdong is a situation of slight oversupply.

Third, consumption is relatively weak. after the strong demand in April / May, the output and new orders of some small and medium-sized profile enterprises declined to varying degrees in June. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing aluminum bars and stock mainly on demand.

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