[SMM current Weekly Review] inaction goes the wrong way, and steel is stained with towels.

(July 3 Weekly Review)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 526Universe 1923Universe 97According to 4648.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 22pr 2578 / > 10.9158 million / 51 Pol 9754.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 57236 / > 2.8371 million / 13jue 1485.

Serious countries and regions.

2. Brazil: > 1.5013 million / 48105 Universe 6 minutes 1990.

3. India: > 627100 / 20903 Compact 18225.

4. Russia: > 661100 / 6760amp 9683.

5. UK: > 283700 / 0ram 4je 3995.

6. Peru: > 292000 / 3527 Compact 10045.

7. Mexico: > 238500 / 6741 Compact 29189.

8. Chile: > 284500 / 2498 / 5920.

9. South Africa: > 168000 / 8124 Compact 2844.

10. Iran: > 232800 / 2652Comp11106.

11. Baccartan: > 221800 / 4339 Universe 4551.

12. Saudi Arabia: > 197600 / 3383 Universe 1752.

13. Bangladesh: > 153200 / 4019 Compact 1926.

14. Columbia: > 106100 / 4163 Universe 3641.

15. Argentina: > 69900 / 2667 Compact 1385.

< 2 > Today's current playback

1. The spot market price of steel has rebounded as a whole. The increase varies from 10 to 30 yuan per ton.

Transaction: retaliatory return period.

Market mentality: pessimism turns to prudent domination.

Tangshan billet uplink 10 to 3310 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The market price of scrap steel is generally weak and stable.

Coke prices are generally stable.

The price of imported main coking coal remains stable.

The spot market price of iron ore port fluctuates slightly as a whole.

For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]:

As of July 3, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 100.66 million tons, up 340000 tons from the previous week and down 5.14 million tons from a year earlier. At the same time, the average daily dredging volume of the port fell by 68000 tons to 2.863 million tons compared with the previous month. Due to the re-attack of production restrictions in Tangshan in July, steel mills are more cautious in purchasing this week, and the number of ports in Tangshan has fallen slightly from the previous month. However, it is reported that there is a trend of tightening production restrictions in Tangshan, and it is expected that it will be difficult to see an increase in production next week. This week, inventories in Shandong's main port increased slightly, the price of mainstream spot varieties in the port was lower than that in other regions, and some steel enterprises had low prices to replenish the stock, leading to an increase in the number of ports in Shandong compared with the previous month. Considering that the recent arrival of iron ore to Hong Kong has remained high, while the demand side has dropped slightly due to production restrictions in Tangshan and the recent increase in blast furnace maintenance, the inventory of imported ore ports is still expected to continue to accumulate. Today, even the railway shock operation, the port spot market prices mixed, Shandong area PB powder 765Mel 770 yuan / ton transaction, Tangshan area 785 yuan / ton; steel mills purchase on demand, merchants actively ship, the overall transaction is OK.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract:

Read at night and watch all the Changan flowers in one day.

During the day, the position increased sharply between 3574 and 3620, with a strong breakthrough of 3612, and closed at 3619.

HC2010 main contract:

I went to Taiquan to recruit the old people, with a banner of one hundred thousand to cut off Yan Luo.

During the day, the bottom rebounded sharply between 3562 and 3614, closing at 3606.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 738 to 748.5 strong shock, closing at 746.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 1852 and 1882 to continue to explore the weak shock, closing at the end of 1871.5.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1187 to 1202.5 strong shock, closing 1192.5.

< 3 > simple playback of this week's issue

1. Weak realization of PK strong expectations this week

The main factors of weak implementation include, but are not limited to:

Rain in the south continues to harass demand

The epidemic situation in Beijing continues to block demand.

Xiaoxiao Jiangshang City, summer rain in Hangzhou

The factory storehouse and the social storehouse continue to walk.

The output of rebar is towering and floating.

Those who ride the wall still sing across the river.

The main factors for strong expectations include, but are not limited to:

The improvement of the macro environment continues!

Manufacturing PMI Index exceeded expectations

Shanghai Composite Index and commodities are all glamorous.

Ministry of Finance Jingdong Express funds

The central government cuts reserve requirements and interest rates in the same way.

The superior system has overtaken the epidemic situation in Beijing.

The influence of rain in the south is getting farther and farther away.

It's good to go up to the west building alone and watch the rain.

The high temperature affects the whistle on the short night road.

The total output peaked and fell in stages.

Two-dimensional squeeze profit support cost

Shi Jiaoqiang realizes weak expectation showdown

He who travels less than ten thousand miles to the Great Wall is not a true man.

It rains after thunder in Tangshan

2. Spot: overall steel prices fell after the festival, first suppressed and then rose, and rebounded on Friday.

3. Futures:

Suddenly reported that Tangshan Zeng Fuhu, tears suddenly made a torrential rain.

Future steel RB2010 main contract with a volume of more than 3600.

RB2010 main contract: the bottom rebounded between 3542 and 3620 within the week, with a weekly close of 3619.

HC2010 main contract: the bottom rebounded between 3545 and 3614 within the week, with a weekly close of 3606.

I2009 main contract: concussion fell between 766 and 730.5 of the week, with a weekly close of 746.5.

J2009 main contract: fell sharply between 1950 and 1852, with a weekly income of 1871.5.

JM2009 main contract: strong shock between 1196.5 and 1167.5, with a weekly income of 1192.5.

In short, the author predicts a perfect landing. After the festival, the market will fall, restrain first and then rise, especially for the production restriction of environmental protection in Tangshan area.

< 4 > next week's current forecast:

1. Spot aspect: promote first and then suppress, the probability of rising and falling is high.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3700 and 3580.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3680 and 3560.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 730 and 760.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1860 and 1930.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1160 and 1230.

3. Spot operation suggestion: if the author puts it into practice, the part of the low and appropriate amount of replenishment of inventory will be sold at a high profit.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot coil: the main rolling operation is to maintain high throwing and low suction in the range.

Iron ore: the main thing is to do more than bargain in the range, and more than 725 stops.

Coke: in the range of activists, high-altitude, low-and multi-operation is the main, multi-single effective drop below 1860 stop-loss, empty single effective break-through 1930 stop-loss.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market, more trading in the range of activists.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3580, pressure level 3680, 3700.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3560, pressure level 3630, 3670.

I2009 main contract: support level 725, pressure level 760.

J2009 main contract: support 1860, pressure 1900.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1160, pressure level 1200.

< 5 > Information and heart words.

1. [PMI of Caixin service industry rose to 58.4 in June, the highest in more than a decade] China's Caixin service industry PMI rose to 58.4 in June, the highest since May 2010, with an expected value of 53.2 and a previous value of 55.

2. As of July 3, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 100.66 million tons, an increase of 340000 tons over the previous week and a decrease of 5.14 million tons from the same period last year. At the same time, the average daily dredging volume of the port fell by 68000 tons to 2.863 million tons compared with the previous month. Due to the re-attack of production restrictions in Tangshan in July, steel mills are more cautious in purchasing this week, and the number of ports in Tangshan has fallen slightly from the previous month. However, it is reported that there is a trend of tightening production restrictions in Tangshan, and it is expected that it will be difficult to see an increase in production next week. This week, inventories in Shandong's main port increased slightly, the price of mainstream spot varieties in the port was lower than that in other regions, and some steel enterprises had low prices to replenish the stock, leading to an increase in the number of ports in Shandong compared with the previous month. Considering that the recent arrival of iron ore to Hong Kong has remained high, while the demand side has dropped slightly due to production restrictions in Tangshan and the recent increase in blast furnace maintenance, the inventory of imported ore ports is still expected to continue to accumulate. [SMM Steel]

3. In terms of becoming a talented person.

The gap between strong expectation and weak realization is strengthened. Today's futures steel rose sharply, the spot rose slightly, and the cash spread converged sharply. Take the three types of brands in Shanghai as an example, the spot price of futures is more than 30 yuan / ton, and in the case of Shanghai Shagang brand, the spot discount of futures is less than 80 yuan / ton. The original sin is that the spot is more focused on the static reality, that is, the short-term output is high, the rain in the south affects demand, and the superimposed market "fortune-telling" disturbance. Normally speaking, Fuzhou Steel is the deduction of expectations, that is, the dynamic changes of industry output, demand and inventory. From the main road to the middle: macro direction, industry dimension. Whether the truth is put aside for the time being, but after N times of practice, at least there is a good chance of winning.

The main factors affecting the operation of the market next week include, but are not limited to:

First, parts of the south continue to rain, the impact of high-temperature weather is unharmed (the author has said, I will not repeat it).

Second, the examination of life (July 7, 8 college entrance examination) will affect the construction, but it is very limited.

Third, how big is the actual "rainfall" of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area.

Fourth, whether the macro environment continues to strengthen, the author tends to think that we should not dream too much in the short term.

Fifth, to what extent the output converges, we should pay attention to the hot coil varieties of rebar blast furnace hot metal.

The sixth is the intensity of demand recovery in the areas where the rain is different from the sunny day.

Seventh, the problem of funds affects the life of the construction.

4. Raw material side.

Scrap: with the decrease of the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace and the decrease of the proportion of scrap addition in long process, the production capacity converges in stages, and the scrap price is still under short-term pressure.

In terms of coke: the fundamentals are still healthy, and coke enterprises are highly motivated to produce (unlimited nonsense). ), but the core is the low inventory of coke enterprises. It is said that the market thinks that the seventh round rise has peaked and fell back (I do not agree). At present, we are considering the delivery routine "moisture" at least 150 yuan / ton coke discount, that is to say, the disk price has already reflected three rounds of increase and decline, looking forward to the replacement of new production capacity (referring to crude steel output), long and short risks and opportunities should be measured!

Iron ore: production restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan area will of course have a negative impact on iron ore demand, the author believes that no matter how the impact will not hurt the overall situation, the overall situation of high demand is not only unharmed but also higher. The supply-side hard core is still the epidemic of mining countries exported to China, such as Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa and so on. Short-term inventory fluctuations should not be too troublesome, containing too much "water". No, no. In short, iron ore short-term recovery space is very limited, hope more empty and go and cherish.

In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged: the general rebound is still on the way. No, no. There are only many battles on the road to rebound.

Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.