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How much can the price of coal rise in the first ten days?
Jul 3,2020 09:50CST
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The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: stalemate for half a month of the port market coal prices finally rose, coal prices rise for many reasons! First of all, due to coal mine safety inspection, stop production restrictions, coal mine corruption inspection, the main coal production pit mouth prices are strong, the production area is strong to support the port prices. Secondly, under the influence of the strict control of the domestic customs clearance policy, the annual quota of imported coal tends to be tight, most ports extend the customs clearance time, and some ports in the south explicitly require that the use of imported coal be stopped. In July, there has been no change in the coal import policy, prompting a change in the mentality of users, and domestic coal will continue to be purchased this month. Third, although hydropower power generation, thermal power pressure reduced, but at the peak of the summer, the power plant coal consumption is expected to further increase, prompting users not to slack off. Fourth, at the end of June, when the large coal enterprises monthly long Association price adjustment window, upstream and downstream customers are waiting for the new monthly long Association price, mainly wait and see. And Shenhua outsourcing prices first rose sharply, stimulating market sentiment, traders have followed the trend to raise coal prices.

But the strength of rising coal prices is not enough! It means it won't go up very much. First of all, from the perspective of downstream demand, the inventory of power plants is not low. As of June 27th, the national key power generation enterprises had inventory of 83.96 million tons and available days of 22 days. Up to now, the six major coastal power plants have a total storage of 16.01 million tons of coal, with a daily consumption of 638000 tons, and the available days of coal storage is 25 days. It is estimated that the daily consumption should not change much before the end of the Meiyu season. Secondly, affected by off-peak production and continuous rainfall, cement, building materials and other industries do not have much demand for coal. In addition, UHV power transmission restricts the downstream thermal power generation. Third, although entering the peak summer period, the precipitation increases, the hydropower operation rate increases greatly, the thermal power operation rate is stable, the coal consumption is relatively stable, there will be no big ups and downs, and short-term stability maintenance is the main.

From the point of view of the anchor ships in the ports around the Bohai Sea in early July, except for 49 anchor ships in Huanghua Port, the number of anchor ships in Qinhuangdao Port has been reduced to 23, while the anchor ships in other ports such as Caofeidian and Jingtang have maintained a single-digit figure, indicating that the demand for downstream is not strong. It is still dominated by the pulling and transportation of coal from the Changsha Association. In July, downstream users do not have a high enthusiasm for northward transportation under the condition of high inventory and power generation of water and electricity. And mainly to the long Association of coal transport, it is expected that the market purchase of coal will not be very much, which to a certain extent restricted the rising range of market coal prices. It is expected that in the first ten days of July, the price of coal in the port market will rise steadily and slightly, and there will be no sharp rise. The increase in thermal coal in the market with calorific value of 5500 kcal will be about 15 yuan / ton.

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