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[agency Review] Copper prices posted their biggest quarterly increase in a decade, but we think the rally is far from over.
Jul 1,2020 09:47CST
translation
Source:Jinyuan futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: Tuesday, Shanghai copper prices fluctuated upward in intraday trading, continuing the previous rising trend, reaching a new high, and finally closing at 48790 yuan / ton; the trend of copper in the night market fluctuated higher, and the high level of copper in Shanghai fluctuated. On Tuesday, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted as 130 yuan / ton-160 yuan / ton for the monthly contract. On the last day of the month, most of the downstream waited for a change of months to enter the market, which made the transaction difficult, the supply of superimposed imported copper increased, and the holder's strong willingness to exchange for cash. Weak willingness to receive goods makes the rising water fall quickly.

On the macro front: us stocks rose, the biggest one-quarter gain in 20 years. Us oil rose more than 90% in the second quarter, and futures rose to a nearly nine-year high of more than $1800. China's central bank cut re-lending and rediscount rates by a quarter of a percentage point on July 1, and "precision drip irrigation" helped finance to yield profits to entities.

Industry: from January to May, the copper concentrate and copper ore output of Freeport Indonesia were lower than expected; in June, the final value of the PMI composite index of copper downstream industry was 52.51, down 0.73 from the previous month, up 6.52 from the same period last year.

Copper prices continued their pre-holiday upward trend this week, with prices hitting new highs and rising by nearly a decade in the second quarter. Although there was a rebound in the new crown epidemic in the United States, the rise in copper prices has not been affected much, which means that the impact of the new crown on copper prices has basically receded. The market had feared that the decline in consumption in the off-season could be a drag on copper prices, which has not been fulfilled so far. In the latest release of domestic official PMI data once again exceeded market expectations, reflecting that the market is still in a good state of recovery. At the same time, the new rules and regulations of recycled copper have not yet landed, which also means that the domestic scrap copper supply will remain low in the third quarter, and the market supply is not optimistic. Combined with the current continuous decline in copper stocks, we believe that the rise in copper prices is not over. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the future, short-term adjustment will not hinder the medium-and long-term rising pattern.

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