China's cobalt prices under downward pressure as raw materials imports will resume

SHANGHAI, Jun 16 (SMM) – Offers of cobalt intermediate products stayed at high levels last week as the shipments of seaborne cobalt raw materials have not arrived in China. However, near-term prices of cobalt may move lower as domestic demand has not shown signs of significant picking up and purchases by upstream producers weakened. 

Lithium prices may continue to face downward pressure as inventories piled up at upstream producers amid subdued trades in the spot market and inflow of lithium carbonate imports impacted on the domestic market. But support from costs may lead to slower declines in battery-grade lithium carbonate. 

Prices of refined cobalt retreated in the week ended June 12, edging down 500 yuan/mt from the previous week to 248,000-257,000 yuan/mt, while prices of cobalt hydroxide held stable on the week at $9.8-10.4/lb, SMM assessed.

Demand for refined cobalt from the downstream sectors of magnetic material and alloy has not resumed as consumers remain on the sideline. 

Domestic cobalt prices have exceeded overseas prices following consecutive declines in the international market. This, coupled with drops in cobalt sulphate prices in China, grew traders concerns of weakness in near-term cobalt prices and prompted them to cut offers. Prices of cobalt intermediate products, meanwhile, held unchanged from a week ago. 

SMM expects prices of cobalt intermediate products to weaken this week as reduced prices of cobalt salts and sluggish orders kept cobalt salt producers from procuring raw materials. Some suppliers of cobalt raw materials have considered lowering offers. 

SMM assessed prices of artificial graphite (high-end) at 75,000-80,000 yuan/mt with prices of artificial graphite (middle-end) at 65,000-70,000 yuan/mt as of June 12, flat from a week ago. Prices of natural graphite (high-end) stood at 50,000-60,000 yuan/mt and prices of natural graphite (middle-end) at 30,000-40,000 yuan/mt, also unchanged on the week. 

Prices of raw material needle-like coke have slipped to low levels of 6,000 yuan/mt. Shipments at major producers were stable and this kept the needle-like coke prices from falling further.

Purchases of anode materials by the downstream battery producers were subdued due to little increase in new orders. Thin trades kept spot prices of anode materials stable last week. 

China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in May failed to meet expectations. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China produced 84,000 NEVs and sold 82,000 NEVs in May, up 3.5% and 12.2%, respectively, from a month ago, while down 25.8% and 23.5% from a year earlier. Production and sales of new energy passenger cars edged higher on the month in May, but the readings for new energy commercial vehicles shrank significantly month on month in May, following consecutive gains from January to April. While passenger cars remain the major driving force of China’s NEV market, the CAAM data for May suggests that it remains difficult for end-users consumption to resume quickly after the crippling impact of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Domestic power battery output came in at 5.2GWh in May, down 47.7% on the year while up 9.9% on the month, showed data from the China Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance for Electric Vehicle. 

Among this, production of ternary batteries grew 7.2% on the month while dipped 52.4% on the year, to 3.1GWh, accounting for 59.1% of the total production. Output of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries extended its increase, rising 13.8% month on month while falling 9.6% year on year, to 2.1GWh, taking up 40.5% of the total output. The proportion of LFP batteries expanded from 39.1% in April. SMM learned that producers of passenger NEVs in China have raised their usage of LFP batteries. SMM expects more automakers, besides Tesla, to gradually ramp up the use of LFP batteries installed on NEVs in the second half of the year.