Macro Roundup (Jun 4)

SHANGHAI, Jun 4 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead.

The US dollar eased further on Wednesday while stocks on Wall Street posted yet another robust day, as better-than-expected economic data bolstered optimism over the recovery from coronavirus-led shutdowns, which outweighed brewing US-China tensions and widespread protests in the US.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell for a seventh straight day and plumbed the lowest since March 12 at 97.1882.

A report from ADP released Wednesday showed that US private payrolls fell 2.76 million in May — much less than the 8.75 million expected from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, suggesting layoffs were abating as businesses recover from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

US services industry activity also pushed off an 11-year low in May, though businesses appeared in no rush to rehire workers as they reopen.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said Wednesday that its non-manufacturing activity index rose to a reading of 45.4 last month from 41.8 in April, which was the lowest since March 2009 and first contraction since December 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity.

In Europe, IHS Markit’s final composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings on Wednesday indicated that eurozone business activity suffered another devastating contraction in May, but the downturn eased to a reading of 31.9 from April’s 13.6. Anything above 50 represents an expansion.

In the same month, China’s service providers saw the first expansion in their businesses in four months, as domestic demand rebounded with the easing of the epidemic containment measures in the country, a private survey showed Wednesday.

China’s Caixin services PMI, which gives an independent snapshot of operating conditions in the country’s services sector, jumped to 55 in May from 44.4 in April. In May, China’s services activity grew at the fastest month-on-month pace since October 2010.

Oil, however, stemmed its rally on Wednesday, moving between gains and losses in a volatile trading session, as demand continues to improve, but as doubts emerged about the timing and scale of a potential extension to the pact between OPEC and its allies to cut crude supplies.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude inventories edged down by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended May 29, compared to a fall of 483,000 barrels for the same week reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.

EIA data also showed that US gasoline supply rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles added 9.9 million barrels.

LME nonferrous metals closed mixed on Wednesday. Aluminium rose 0.4%, tin and zinc gained 0.3%, while lead dipped nearly 0.1%, copper shed 0.2% and nickel fell 0.7%.

SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium, weakened in overnight trading. Tin slipped 0.8% to lead the losses, nickel fell 0.7%, lead lost 0.4%, copper shed 0.2% and zinc edged down 0.1%.

Investors are focused on whether the European Central Bank will increase the size of its 750 billion euro ($669 billion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) when it meets on Thursday.

The US Department of Labor is scheduled to release the latest update to initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. Though economists polled by Dow Jones expect the government to announce yet another deceleration in the pace of claims, the consensus estimate predicts another 1.8 million Americans filed for insurance during the week ended May 30.