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[SMM brief Review] weak consumption of imported lead in Hong Kong pays close attention to the change of lead inventory
May 29,2020 15:00CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

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SMM news: today's Shanghai lead main 2007 contract fell to 14125 yuan / ton, as of today, the day closed at 14220 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.42%.

In terms of fundamentals, some imported lead are arriving in Hong Kong one after another, and there will still be inflows of imported lead in the follow-up. The supply of goods in circulation is expected to increase in June, and the supply tends to be loose. In terms of recycled lead, with the release of the new expansion capacity, recycled lead is expected to continue to increase, the only limiting factor is the supply of waste batteries. Therefore, with the inflow of imported lead and the release of recycled lead, it is expected that the social inventory of lead ingots will increase and pay attention to the extent of inventory accumulation.

However, the consumption of lead-acid battery has not improved greatly for the time being, the market demand of electric battery is weak, the digestion of battery is slow, at the same time, it is difficult to promote battery sales because of low-price promotion in the industry.

SMM believes that lead fundamentals are still expected to be weak, but inventories have been low. As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 9500 tons, up more than 100 tons from the week of May 15, with only a small increase in inventories, according to SMM. At present, the position of Shanghai lead contract is still very high, the recent long funds are also trying to push up, do not rule out the possibility that Shanghai lead will rise in the short term, pay attention to the accumulation of lead inventory in the later stage, excess expectations will be fulfilled, the pressure of lead prices to continue to rise will be highlighted.

Focus on the development prospect and price trend of lead and zinc industry

In 2019, global trade disputes escalated, the global economy was under pressure, and central banks began a wave of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that at present and for some time to come, the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement will remain unchanged, and 2020 will also be the year when China will build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the 13th five-year Plan ends. In this context, the new crown virus is rampant all over the world, and it is worth looking forward to how to achieve steady economic growth.

In terms of the lead market, the newly expanded production capacity of overseas mines has been released one after another from 2019 to 2020, but the overseas epidemic has spread and some overseas mines have been put into production and mines under construction. Where will the lead concentrate go in 2020? At the same time, new expansion projects in China's recycled lead market are springing up everywhere. What is the actual output release in 2020? Whether the cost support is effective or not, the supply of waste batteries has become the focus of the future market; and under the influence of a number of policies (such as the new national standard for electric bicycles, motorcycle purchase tax exemption, etc.), whether the subsequent lead consumption matches, and what is the trend of lead prices in 2020?

In response to the above topics, SMM will invite industry celebrities, industry professionals, enterprises from the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain to hold the "2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit" in Changsha to jointly discuss the current situation and problems of the industry, as well as the future development prospects, and analyze the fundamentals and the future trend of zinc prices.

Click to sign up for SMM 2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit

Scan the QR code in the picture to sign up for the lead-zinc summit and fill in the personal information on the last page. The meeting staff will contact you later!

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For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

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