[SMM Review] leisurely rain at the beginning of the song, alone around Qingxi.

(28 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 112, 1734, 413.

The latest paper led by Academician Zhong Nanshan, Li Lanjuan and Zhang Boli focuses on Lianhua Qingwen for clinical treatment of a new type of coronary lung: efficacy. According to the clinical data disclosed in this paper, Lianhua Qingwen can effectively improve the clinical cure rate, and has obvious therapeutic effect on fever, fatigue, cough and other symptoms, and has high safety. However, the paper said that Lianhua Qingwen had no significant difference in reducing the conversion rate of severe cases and increasing the negative rate of virus detection.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 92641 / > 5.719 million / 35 3074.

Putin: the peak of the spread of the new crown virus in Russia has passed.

CCTV News: India's Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and other locusts infested, a large number of farmland was destroyed. Gujell, deputy director of the Indian Locust warning Organization, said that this is the first time such a large-scale locust swarm has appeared in India since 1993. Desert locusts are the most destructive migratory pest in the world, with a swarm of about 80 million adult locusts in a one-square-kilometer swarm that feeds 35000 people a day, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

The number of new confirmed cases has rebounded in 20 states in the United States. Center for Disease Control and Prevention: more than 62000 health care workers are infected with the new crown virus; antibody tests used in the past are wrong half the time.

The unreliable Trump tweeted on the 26th: if I hadn't done a good job, 15 to 2 million people would have died in the United States.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 19026 / > 1.7458 million / 102107.

Brazil ranks second in the world for the time being in serious countries and regions.

Brazil: > 414600 / 16796 Universe 25697.

Russia: > 379000 / 8338 Universe 4142.

UK: > 267200 / 2013 Universe 3pm 7460.

India: > 158600 / 4507 Universe 4540.

Peru: > 135900 / 5772 Universe 3983.

Canada: > 87500 / 650 Compact 6765.

Chile: > 82200 / 4328Comp841.

< 2 > this issue is now replayed.

1. Spot market prices are generally on the strong side. General rise in North China, 20 yuan / ton in Tangshan, 10: 20 in Beijing, 10 yuan in Xi'an, 10 yuan / ton in Hangzhou in East China, 10 yuan / ton in Shanghai, stable in Guangzhou, Wuhan and Changsha in South China, and fell in a few regions. Xiamen fell 40 yuan per ton, Kunming and Zhengzhou fell slightly. Hot rolls continue to perform better than building materials.

Turnover: high demand is still there.

Market mentality: stabilize the owner.

Tangshan billet uplink 10 yuan to 3250 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

Scrap price overall pullback.

The third round of coke rises and falls to the ground.

The price of coking coal is stable.

The spot market price of iron ore port has risen 5-10 yuan / ton as a whole. The price of PB powder ore in Tangshan area and Shandong area is basically the same, and the price of PB powder ore is 725-730 yuan / ton. The deal is not as good as yesterday. For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Today, even the iron is strong and volatile, and the price in the port spot market has been raised by about 5mur10 yuan / ton in early trading. Steel procurement enthusiasm in general, some have completed weekly procurement, the overall transaction is weaker than yesterday. For traders, quotations were still positive and some were strong, mainly due to the continued downward trend in port inventories. According to the calculation of SMM data model, according to the calculation of 96 US Gold Mine, the current thread profit of steel mills is about 200 yuan / ton, and the profit of hot coil is only about 100 yuan / ton. some hot coil steel enterprises are even in a state of loss, and the acceptance of raw material price increase in steel mills has been reduced. Today, the turnover of PB powder in Shandong and Tangshan is about 725,730 yuan / ton, mainly due to the recent decrease in the arrival of goods in Shandong, the obvious decline in port tradable mine inventory, and the narrowing of the price gap between the two places. In the short term, under the condition of low profits of steel enterprises, iron ore prices continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3472 and 3512 within a day, closing at the end of 3498.

HC2010 main contract: within the day rebounded between 3414 and 3455, closing at 3447.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 700 to 713 strong shock, closing at 710.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day to continue finishing between 1847 and 1872, closing at the end of 1855.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1153.5 to 1169.5 horizontal concussion, closing 1159.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: the overall operation is strong, and the probability of rising and falling in East China is high.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3480 and 3560.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3400 and 3500.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 695 and 720.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1850 and 1910.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1180.

3. Spot operation tips: those who have no inventory pressure enter the stage of replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount of bargain.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot coil: high throwing and low suction rolling operation in the range.

Iron ore: high altitude and low suction in the range, fast in and out, falling below more than 690 single stop loss, empty single effectively break through 715.5 stop loss.

Coke: in the early stage, most of them left the market; more transactions in the new warehouse order range, fast-in and fast-out; trend empty order 1900 gradually involved.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490, 3470, pressure level 3560.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400, pressure level 3470.

I 2009 main contract: support level 690, pressure level 715.5.

J2009 main contract: support 1840, pressure 1892.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. [Li Keqiang: at present, we still do not engage in flood irrigation, but we should "release water for fish farming" in special periods, and the measures taken should be targeted] Li Keqiang: we have said in the past that this is still the case if we do not engage in flood irrigation, but there should be special policies in special periods, which we call releasing water for fish farming. Fish can't live without enough water. But if it is flooded, a bubble will be formed, some people will arbitrage from it, fish will not be raised, and some people will fish in troubled waters. Therefore, the measures we take should be targeted, that is to say, we should touch the right medicine under the pulse. No matter where the money comes from or where it is used, we have to take a new path.

Li Keqiang: if we achieve the six guarantees this year, we will be able to achieve positive economic growth. Li Keqiang answered a reporter's question: this new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought a serious impact on the world economy, which is rare in the world. Major international organizations predict that the global economy will grow by-3% or more this year. It is impossible for China's economy to integrate into the world economy. China does not have a quantitative indicator of growth, which is seeking truth from facts. However, we have determined the task of the six guarantees, which is directly related to GDP and economic growth. In doing so, we are also giving the people a more direct sense of economic growth and higher quality. If we realize the task of "six guarantees", we will be able to achieve positive economic growth this year.

2. The Financial and Economic Committee of the National people's Congress: firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and maintain steady and healthy economic development. We will strengthen the overall coordination, precise operation and implementation of macro policies, a proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, and the policy of giving priority to employment should be strengthened in an all-round way. Actively guide and stabilize the expectations of market players. Fully tap the potential of the super-large-scale market, give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment, and promote the "double upgrading" of industry and consumption.

3. Academy of Social Sciences: in April, the transaction volume and prices of second-hand housing in core cities across the country rebounded rapidly, and rents fell rapidly. House prices in third-and fourth-tier cities fell overall. According to the general analytical logic, rents fall and house prices rise, indicating that the risk of a real estate bubble is increasing. However, whether the market risk can be controlled depends on the trend of house prices and rents in the second half of 2020.

4. Ministry of Transport: from January to April, fixed asset investment in transportation completed 679 billion yuan, down 8.6% from the same period last year, of which 299.9 billion yuan was completed in April, an increase of 18.2% over the same period last year. In April, the transportation industry made positive progress in resuming work and production, the main indicators continued to pick up, and some areas have approached or returned to the level of the same period last year.

5. The market expects that "interest rate cut" is still an indispensable policy option in the future.

In fact, the core problem of China's current monetary environment is not quantitative easing, but that the price is too high, that is, the financing interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is too high. Therefore, in the future, we still need to cut interest rates through a variety of means to achieve the purpose of reducing financing interest rates. As the inflationary inflection point is further confirmed and continues to fall, "interest rate cut" is still an indispensable policy option in the future, and the introduction of it in the future is still a high probability event.

6. the deviation between mining price and steel price from January to April, the profit decline of the steel industry expanded by 4.7 percentage points.

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 27th show that from January to April, the total profits of the ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry (steel industry) above the national scale reached 30.63 billion yuan, down 60.4 percent from the same period last year, and the rate of decline increased by 4.7 percentage points from January to March.

7. According to the work requirements of the Xuzhou Municipal Government, in order to speed up the ten key tasks of the city in 2020, comprehensively complete the layout optimization, transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel, coking, cement and thermoelectric industries, as well as the improvement and improvement of the safety and environmental protection of the chemical industry, and the special renovation of chemical safety, according to Xuzhou's "work Plan for the Integration and renovation of the five Major Industries in 2020", there are 18 iron and steel enterprises in the city. Optimization and integration to form two large iron and steel joint enterprises (three production sites), iron and steel production capacity will be reduced by more than 30% in 2020; In the coking industry, there are 11 coking enterprises in the city, optimizing and integrating to form three comprehensive coking enterprises, and the coking capacity will be reduced by 50% by 2020. Three of the 11 coking enterprises have been closed or dismantled, including Qiangsheng, Tengda and Huayu; five transitional production have been closed before the end of June 2020, including Dongxing, Zhongtai, Weitian, Longshan and Guanmao, among which Guanmao has been incorporated into Tianan; the remaining 3 are Yizhou, Tianan and Kingboard. (Xuzhou Daily)

8. [excavator market volume and price soar China added 851 related enterprises in April] according to the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in April 2020, 25 excavator manufacturing enterprises included in the association statistics sold a total of 45400 excavators of all kinds. Earlier, data from the China Construction Machinery Association showed that total sales of excavators in March were 49400, up 11.59% from a year earlier, setting a monthly all-time high. According to the data, as of May 28, subject to industrial and commercial registration, China has established more than 2800 excavator-related enterprises in 2020, including 851 in April, an increase of 26.26% compared with March.

9. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:

This week, the total output of the five major varieties increased to 79400 tons to 10.7185 million tons, of which rebar production increased by 24500 tons to 3.9401 million tons, while hot rolling production decreased slightly by 4600 tons to 3.0775 million tons.

The total inventory of the five major varieties fell by 608400 tons to 21.5958 million tons, of which the total inventory of rebar fell by 297700 tons to 11.0789 million tons, and that of hot rolling by 185700 tons to 3.8717 million tons.

Steel mill inventory: the five major varieties decreased by 12200 tons to 6.1035 million tons, rebar increased by 41400 tons to 3.0516 million tons, and hot rolling decreased by 99500 tons to 1.0479 million tons.

Social inventory: the five major varieties decreased by 608400 tons to 15.4923 million tons, rebar by 339100 tons to 8.0273 million tons, and hot rolling by 86200 tons to 2.8238 million tons.

See Table 1 for details.

Interpretation: today's inventory data sunrise, total production continues to hit a new high, destocking slowed down significantly. Hot and cold rolled varieties perform well.

(1) the output of the five major varieties increased to 10.72 million tons and then reached the peak of last year, of which the output of rebar reached a new record high of 3.94 million tons, and the output of hot and cold rolling looked back.

(2) the high demand for building materials continues, and the demand for hot and cold rolling is higher.

(3) the total inventory of the five major varieties is 21.6 million tons. Among them, the total inventory of rebar is 11.08 million tons and that of hot rolling is 3.87 million tons. If the author considers the sample equivalent value of uniform caliber: the total inventory of five major varieties is 18.79 million tons, and the rebar bank is 6.98 million tons.

(4) the impact of Meiyu season on demand is limited, and the demand intensity is still higher than that of the same period last year.

(5) the high output has a certain pressure on the rebound of building materials in the short term, but it is a high probability event that the hot metal of blast furnace turns to hot and cold rolled products in the later stage.

(6) the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area will be reflected next week.

In short, the overall interpretation of neutral preference! Neutral preference of cold and hot rolled varieties! Building materials are neutral!

10. Shijiao is too high and the cost support is tamped; the total inventory pressure is intact, and the specifications of a few areas are showing gradually; despite the disturbance of Meiyu, the high demand is still strong. Imagine what the demand would be like if it didn't rain? Although the supply side is high, the profits of steel mills are greatly eroded by Shenzhou mine, independent electric arc furnaces generally lose money (small profits of tax-refunded steel enterprises), some electric furnace converters are at the margin of profit and loss, environmental protection limits production, and supply-side expansion is limited. In short, the author's point of view of rhythm and trend remains unchanged.

11. Pay attention to the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area in June, and it is expected that there is a high probability of strict implementation.

With Wednesday's heart words.

1. Steel

Today, the price resistance of the steel market is enhanced, the author has predicted that the range of 50-80 yuan / ton is basically in place, and activists can replenish inventory in an appropriate amount. Although the weather is not beautiful recently, daily trading volume still maintains a high demand state, which proves that the high demand continues unscathed. In the outlook article in June, the author confirmed that the high demand is safe and sound from a global point of view, while from a local point of view, we need to pay attention to the particularity of the contradiction, that is, the development and control of various regions of the epidemic are not synchronized, resulting in non-synchronous resumption of work and production is an objective fact. for example, if the East China market Hangzhou is relatively early in resuming production, the real estate stock will naturally be completed earlier. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the change of snail demand (one of the leading indicators of completion), that is, if the snail demand is hot, it means that the rush demand is at the end of the rush demand, which needs to be paid close attention to. The demand for work in Wuhan, such as Hubei Province, even lasted until July. Recently, the demand for cold rolling and hot coiling is stronger than that of building materials, which is positively related to the resumption of demand in Europe and Southeast Asia. As for the resumption of work and production in Europe even though the epidemic has not been brought under control, the current impact will certainly be positive.

2. Today, iron ore is affected by (5 points) information, which once again stimulates the sentiment of funds to be long. So far, the epidemic in Brazil has not affected supply and shipping volume. As for the uncertainty about how to do it in the later stage. In short, short-term volatility increases, long-short orders are cautiously involved, and timely stop profit and stop loss is the hard core. The improvement of coke fundamentals continues to strengthen, and steel enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei basically accept the third round of increase of 50 yuan / ton. Whether the fourth round of increase can be opened or not mainly depends on the implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions in Shandong. Short-term focus is still more trading, fast-in and fast-out is appropriate. The mid-term empty order can wait for about 1930 to enter.

Attaching words to the heart on Tuesday

In terms of steel

Today's trading volume, in many areas of rain and weak steel state, still maintain the peak season level. When it rains in many areas, the so-called high demand in the market will inevitably be happy in the heart of those who have reached the peak of high demand. Today's trading volume hits the face again! The demand for beauty is unique and old-fashioned, which makes people feel haunted. The short rhythm is still within the scope of the author's prediction. In short, the view of rhythm and trend remains the same.

In terms of iron ore

Today, the diving platform of Shenzhou Mine is mainly due to the shipment volume of Australian kangaroo and Brazil (23.639 million tons), which is 19.3% higher than that of the previous period (19.823 million tons).

For this reason, the author has three questions?!

One question is that despite the epicenter of the epidemic in Brazil, what we can see at this stage is that the impact on supply has not been realized, while the Australian kangaroo has greatly expanded! Why did the previous data drop continuously?

The second question is that the output of the world's steel mills has been reduced by 13%. Where are the divine mines going?

The third question is, how can the shipping volume suddenly soar after a continuous decline? Is it in line with the routine? Do you understand that the previous data are manipulated? Is it based on the recent voice of deputies to the National people's Congress and under pressure to recover? If so, should professional ethics and ethics be tortured?! Haha, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom!

In a word, the author's view on divine mine remains unchanged.

The price is so high that there is no room for longevity.

Coke

Demon Jiao reached its highest point of 1892 today, and the third round of spot rally began to hit the ground. No, no. The author's forward-looking views are realized:

Once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900). The fourth round of rise and landing is expected in the middle and lower part of June, paying attention to Shandong's "rainfall" is the hard core, and Shanxi's direction is expected to have a high probability of heavy thunder and small raindrops.

It is suggested that in the early stage, the single drop bag is an only high index.

Based on the fundamentals, the supply margin of coking coal has improved, but the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand has not changed essentially.

Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain the same: for details, see the review last week and the outlook for June! I won't repeat it.