[SMM Daily Review] the differentiation of non-ferrous metals runs Shanghai Aluminum Duxiu Black Series General rising Iron Ore up more than 2%

SMM5: at the smooth conclusion of the two sessions today, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council attended a press conference and answered questions from Chinese and foreign reporters: how to use large-scale policy funds? To bail out enterprises and stimulate market vitality, mainly to stabilize employment, protect people's livelihood, so that residents have the spending power, is conducive to promoting consumption and driving the market. This can be said to be a way of market-oriented reform. "Li Keqiang: do not engage in flood irrigation in special periods. Under the pulse of special policies, the quasi-pharmaceutical non-ferrous metals market is mixed, and Shanghai Aluminum is up 1.47%. However, some investors are cautious that after the previous low continues to recover, it is subject to the weakening of the margin of macro and fundamentals, and at the same time, there is a price comparison repair caused by the opening of the import profit window of some varieties. In the absence of major sudden positive policies, it is expected that the persistence and space of the rebound will be restrained. On the copper side, risk appetite in global markets has picked up as national economies have gradually recovered, but risk factors such as a possible recurrence of the epidemic, geopolitics and fluctuations in the oil market have retained market concerns about the speed of economic recovery. From a fundamental point of view, the Antamina copper mine under Tektronix Resources has resumed operation and is expected to achieve full production in the third quarter, and the market is worried about the long-term global copper supply surplus to put pressure on copper prices, while the current low domestic inventory gives copper price support, so the disk performance is long-empty glue.

Black is generally upstream, with iron ore up 2.01%, threads up 0.37% and hot rolls up 1.2%. Demand for construction steel arrived in the off-season as scheduled, but supply remained strong. Apparent demand for rebar showed a significant decline this week, total inventory decline narrowed while hot coil demand remained high, production pressure was relatively small, inventory was quickly eliminated. SMM data show that the decline in building materials inventory in this period is obvious: the total warehouse is 10.4543 million tons, month-on-month is-3.5%, 5.4% lower than factory warehouse 2.9936 million tons, month-on-month ratio-0.1%, 11.4% lower than social treasury 7.4607 million tons, month-on-month ratio-4.9%. For details, please see the SMM inventory report later.

Crude oil rose 0.11% in the previous period. International oil prices have returned to their highest level since mid-March, and although crude oil fundamentals have improved, the market appears to have become too optimistic, according to industry analysts. Markets continue to drive financial and commodity markets higher, and oil prices have rebounded to their highest level since the blockade and home orders were announced in the United States in March due to the outbreak. Judging from various indicators, the market has recovered a lot of lost ground in the past two and a half months. The Dow Jones Industrial average surged to more than 25000 on Tuesday, while the S & P jumped to more than 3000. Both key points were touched in March. But now that the price of Brent crude is close to $40 a barrel, the durability of the OPEC+ agreement has begun to be questioned, and there is a potential downside in the oil market.

As of today's day close:

Today's capital flow

The commodity index showed outflows for the first time this week, losing more than 600 million blood. The fluctuation of Shanghai crude oil is limited, both of them have been abandoned by about 400 million funds, and the crude oil sector has lost more than 600 million funds. Oil and oilseeds as a whole went up and down, and some of the funds left the market at a profit. Risk aversion has returned, and Shanghai Bank has returned to its rising trend, with more than 50, 000 positions a day and more than 1.2 billion of precious metals.

A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 28th

Copper: today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 43660 yuan / ton in the morning, and the short-term copper price rose to 43760 yuan / ton in the short term, but it quickly gave up 100 yuan, and the market fell to 43600 yuan / ton. The bears made a profit and left the market. Bulls led the copper price to the intraday high of 43850 yuan / ton, the center of gravity stabilized at 43800 yuan / ton, and closed at 43770 yuan / ton in midday. Shanghai copper maintained a narrow concussion pattern when trading opened in the afternoon. Near the end of the day, the bulls left the market, and the disk slid down through the daily average line to a daily low of 43580 yuan / ton. At this time, the copper price of short sellers rebounded slightly and finally closed at 43700 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its positions by 1072 to 103000, mainly for short positions, while the trading volume increased by 6240 to 106000. Risk appetite in global markets has picked up as national economies have gradually recovered, but risk factors such as a possible recurrence of the epidemic, geopolitics and fluctuations in the oil market have retained concerns about the pace of economic recovery. During the day, Shanghai Copper operates in the range of 43,600 million yuan / ton, and its center of gravity is slightly higher than that of the night market. From a fundamental point of view, the Antamina copper mine under Tektronix Resources has resumed operation and is expected to achieve full production in the third quarter, and the market is worried about the long-term global copper supply surplus to put pressure on copper prices, while the current low domestic inventory gives copper price support, so the disk performance is multi-empty glue, copper prices are always difficult to break through the 44000 mark. Today, Shanghai copper closed, below there is still a 20-day moving average support, waiting for the outer disk guidelines at night to test whether the bulls can continue to push up copper prices.

Updating,

Scan the QR code and join the SMM metal communication group.