Home / Metal News / Steel & Iron Ore / [SMM current Review] the steel price is nothing to worry about.
[SMM current Review] the steel price is nothing to worry about.
May 26,2020 20:38CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(26 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 130gram 1731x403. 7 persons.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 90656 / > 5.5077 million / 34jue 3321.

Who: may usher in a second wave of outbreaks or a second peak

On May 25, local time, WHO held a regular press conference on new crown pneumonia. Michael Ryan, director of the WHO Health Emergency Project, said that it is currently in the first wave of the epidemic, and it cannot be assumed that its transmission level will continue to decline. The epidemic of new crown pneumonia may suddenly rise at any time, and there may be a second peak. Who reminds countries that they should be on high alert. Rapid detection of cases to inhibit the spread of the virus.

In addition, in response to the rumor that "new crown pneumonia will automatically disappear in summer", WHO said: new crown pneumonia should not be assumed to be "seasonal". Data from the five months since the new crown pandemic show that if the virus exists, regardless of temperature and month, can infect humans.

Trump stopped taking hydroxychloroquine to prevent the new crown, still insisting that the drug "received rave reviews". The United States announced a travel ban on Brazil. White House anti-epidemic working group experts said on the 24th, "it is difficult to say whether the United States will shut down again because of the epidemic." Biden lambasted Trump for playing golf: nearly 100000 people died in the United States, but the president was busy playing golf. Trump was interviewed to comment on his opponent, Joe Biden: I can't think of the advantages, but the disadvantages can be said all day. Many states in the United States distribute the drug Redsevir to fight the new crown virus, and clinical trials report that new crown patients cannot be cured by using it alone. Social distance does not exist! Swimming pools in many beaches in the United States have been overcrowded, with the death toll approaching 100,000.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 17200 / > 1.706 million / 99805.

Brazil ranks second in the world in terms of serious countries and regions.

Brazil: > 376600 / 12690 Universe 23522.

Russia: > 353400 / 8946 / 3633.

India: > 145000 / 3620 Compact 4172.

Peru: > 123900 / 4205 / 3629.

Canada: > 85700 / 618amp 6545.

Chile: > 73900 / 8604 Compact 761.

Pakistan: > 57700 / 1748amp 1197.

Saudi Arabia: > 74700 / 2235Comp399.

< 2 > this issue is now replayed.

1. Spot market prices as a whole are weak and stable, with mixed ups and downs. The weakness in rainy areas continues, such as a decline of 10 yuan / ton in Guangzhou in South China and 50 yuan / ton in Nanning, Guangxi; a sharp increase of 100 yuan / ton in Fuzhou and Xiamen, up 50 yuan / ton in Fuzhou and Xiamen, and an increase of 20 yuan / ton in the afternoon; the market in Hangzhou fell 10 yuan / ton, and Shanghai was stable; various varieties of wood in Tangshan area rose and fell mixed.

Volume: still OK.

Market mentality: be cautious.

The lower billet in Tangshan area ranges from 10 yuan to 3250 yuan per ton.

Raw material end:

Scrap prices are generally weak and stable, with a reduction of 50 yuan per ton in some regions such as Henan, and stable in most areas.

The third round of coke rise began to fall to the ground, and some steel mills in Hebei began to agree to accept it.

The price of coking coal is stable.

Iron ore port spot market prices overall fell 15 yuan / ton, see SMM Nonferrous Network Daily Review, do not repeat.

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Today, even the railway concussion downward, the port spot market early market quotation reduced by 5 yuan / ton. In early trading, some steel mills made active enquiries and had a high degree of activity. Afternoon trading continued to weaken, traders are generally willing to ship goods. Shandong area PB powder turnover 718mur725 yuan / ton, Tangshan area PB powder turnover about 725 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday showed a decline of 10 murals 15 yuan / ton. In view of the strong sentiment of some merchants to cherish the sale, some take the order-to-order negotiation. On the whole, today's transaction is relatively mediocre. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 83 ships arrived at China's main ports from May 17 to May 23, with an estimated arrival volume of 13.37 million tons, a decrease of 140000 tons compared with the previous period. In this period, the ship-to-ring ratio increased in Tangshan area and decreased in Shandong area. During the period, Australia's departure increased by 1.62 million tons month-on-month to 17.42 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of more than 20 percent. The current period of Brazilian port departure increased by 810000 tons to 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 500000 tons over the same period last year. Short-term supply-side shipping increment superimposed steel prices under pressure callback average short-term iron ore prices, short-term market or weak finishing. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3520 and 3488 within a day, closing at the end of 3493.

HC2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3430 and 3395 within a day, closing at the end of 3407.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: today long tassel in hand, when to tie up the "mine dragon".

It fell sharply between 723 and 695 in the day, closing at 698.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: break through the Prophase 1879.5, creating a new rebound high of 1892.

It continued to rebound between 1856.5 and 1892 during the day, closing at 1874.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1142.5 to 1157 horizontal concussion, closing 1156.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: it is still stable as a whole, with local ups and downs.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3480 and 3560.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3390 and 3470.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 690 and 710.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1850 and 1910.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1180.

3. Spot operation tips: in the first half of the week, we continue to get rid of inventory in the first half of the week, and gradually replenish inventory in the second half of the week.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot roll: the rebound in the general direction is not over, and the short rhythm has rutting kinetic energy.

The high-altitude and low-suction rolling operation is the main operation in the area.

Iron ore: high altitude and low suction in the range, fast in and out, falling below more than 690 single stop loss, empty single effectively break through 713 stop loss.

Coke: in the early stage, most of them left the market, and the new warehouse receipts were mainly traded in the range of new warehouse receipts.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490, 3470, pressure level 3560.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400, 3380, pressure level 3470.

I2009 main contract: support level 685, pressure level 713.

J2009 main contract: support 1840, pressure 1892.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the central bank: the impact of the epidemic will go through five stages. These include the impact of domestic proliferation, the impact of the decline in external demand caused by the spread of Europe and the United States, the debt risks brought about by the proliferation of South Asia and Africa, the impact of the superimposed risks on the financial system, and how to turn crises into opportunities. Take the epidemic as an opportunity to promote high-quality development. In this process, the "more" in the "prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate" should be fully reflected, we should promote money directly to the main body of the market, avoid arbitrage, and do our best to link up with structural reform policies.

2. Price adjustment of No.3 Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.: from 00:00 on May 26th, 2020, all varieties of building materials will be increased by 100yuan / ton, and the guide price will be rebar 3850 / high-speed wire 3930 / pan snail 4030 from 00:00 on May 26th. The discount rate will not be adjusted.

According to 3.SMM tracking data, a total of 83 ships arrived at China's main ports from May 17 to May 23, with an estimated arrival volume of 13.37 million tons, a decrease of 140000 tons compared with the previous period. In this period, the ship-to-ring ratio increased in Tangshan area and decreased in Shandong area. During the period, Australia's departure increased by 1.62 million tons month-on-month to 17.42 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of more than 20 percent. The current period of Brazilian port departure increased by 810000 tons to 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 500000 tons over the same period last year. Short-term supply-side shipping increment superimposed steel prices under pressure callback average short-term iron ore prices, short-term market or weak finishing. [SMM Steel]

4. In terms of steel

Today's trading volume, in many areas of rain and weak steel state, still maintain the peak season level. When it rains in many areas, the so-called high demand in the market will inevitably be happy in the heart of those who have reached the peak of high demand. Today's trading volume hits the face again! The demand for beauty is unique and old-fashioned, which makes people feel haunted. The short rhythm is still within the scope of the author's prediction. In short, the view of rhythm and trend remains the same.

5. In terms of iron ore

Today, Shenzhou Mine high platform diving, mainly due to My steel net data, the current shipment volume of Australian kangaroos and Brazil (23.639 million tons), a sharp increase of 19.3% compared with the previous period (19.823 million tons).

For this reason, the author has three questions?!

One question is that despite the epicenter of the epidemic in Brazil, what we can see at this stage is that the impact on supply has not been realized, while the Australian kangaroo has greatly expanded! Why did the previous data drop continuously?

The second question is that the output of the world's steel mills has been reduced by 13%. Where are the divine mines going?

The third question is, how can the shipping volume suddenly soar after a continuous decline? Is it in line with the routine? Do you understand that the previous data are manipulated? Is it based on the recent voice of deputies to the National people's Congress and under pressure to recover? If so, should professional ethics and ethics be tortured?! Haha, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom!

In a word, the author's view on divine mine remains unchanged.

The price is so high that there is no room for longevity.

6. Coke

Demon Jiao reached its highest point of 1892 today, and the third round of spot rally began to hit the ground. No, no. The author's forward-looking view is realized: once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900). The fourth round of rise and landing is expected in the middle and lower part of June, paying attention to Shandong's "rainfall" is the hard core, and Shanxi's direction is expected to have a high probability of heavy thunder and small raindrops.

It is suggested that in the early stage, the single drop bag is an only high index.

7. Based on the fundamentals, the supply margin of coking coal has improved, but the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand has not changed essentially.

Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain the same: for details, see the review last week and the outlook for June! I won't repeat it.

Price forecast
daily review

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn