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[SMM] if you still want to go before the light, you don't need red rain to wash your cheeks.
May 25,2020 19:07CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(25 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: 7 confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 129 to 1724 / 396.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 88042 / > 5.4288 million / 34 2237.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 21850 / > 16.286 million / 99300.

Lao Te said that the first place in the world is the greatest honor in the United States. Like Lao Te's crazy words!

Brazil ranks second in the world in terms of serious countries and regions.

Is the president of Brazil a brother of Laote?

Brazil: > 365000 / 12836amp 12836.

Russia: > 353000 / 8599 / 3633.

India: > 139000 / 7105 Universe 4024.

Peru: > 119900 / 4056 / 3456.

Canada: > 84600 / 1189 Comp6424.

Pakistan: > 56300 / 2164Comp1167.

Saudi Arabia: > 72800 / 2399Comp390.

Mexico: > 68600 / 3329amp 7394.

< 2 > playback on weekends to date.

1. Spot market prices have turned around as a whole, with a cumulative decline of 10-50 yuan per ton. There was a big drop in rainy areas, such as rainstorm in Guangzhou fell by 30 yuan / ton, Shanghai fell slightly by 10 yuan / ton, and Shanghai, Xiamen, Fuzhou and other places rose by 10 yuan / ton in the afternoon.

Trading volume: high demand continues.

The market is in a stable state of mind.

Tangshan billet fell 20% over the weekend, rising 10 yuan to 3260 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

Scrap prices rebounded overall: rising in most areas over the weekend and falling in a few areas such as Tangshan.

The third round of coke rally has not yet landed.

The price of coking coal has risen steadily and slightly.

For more information on the spot market of iron ore port, see SMM Nonferrous Network.

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

This morning even iron diving after the shock uplink, the port spot market basically stable in early trading. With the pullup of the market, the quotations of some merchants have been raised by 5 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the steel mills were mainly wait-and-see, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low. Afternoon volatility weakened, some merchants slightly expanded bargaining space, a small number of steel mills on-demand procurement, on the whole today's spot market transactions are relatively general. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is about 730mur735 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 740 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton higher than that of last Friday. The operating rate of blast furnace in domestic steel mills continues to rise, but the support for spot prices continues to be weakened by a small amount of purchasing strategy on demand, but considering that some mainstream resources in the port spot are still tight recently, traders are also willing to sell at high prices. Overall mineral prices or continue to rise but difficult to fall trend, but need to be cautious about the short-term correction of steel prices on the suppression of mineral prices.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3538 and 3488 within a day, closing at the end of 3500.

HC2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3441 and 3393 within a day, closing at the end of 3405.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 729 to 709 to continue high shock, closing at 721.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day, it rebounded strongly between 1821.5 and 1878, closing at 1869.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1148.5 to 1168 strong shock, closing 1153.5.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: the overall situation is stable, local ups and downs are mixed.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3480 and 3560.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3390 and 3470.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 690 and 730.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1850 and 1900.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1150 and 1180.

3. Spot operation tips: in the first half of the week, we continue to get rid of inventory in the first half of the week, and gradually replenish inventory in the second half of the week.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot roll: the rebound in the general direction is not over, and the short rhythm has rutting kinetic energy.

The high-altitude and low-suction rolling operation is the main operation in the area.

Iron ore: high altitude and low suction in the range, fast in and out, falling below more than 690 single stop loss, empty single effectively break through 732 stop loss.

Coke: more trading in the range.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490, 3410, pressure level 3560.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400, 3300, pressure level 3470.

I2009 main contract: support level 700,685. Pressure level 732.

J2009 main contract: support 1840, pressure 1880.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. [global crude steel output in April was 137.1 million tons, down 13% from the same period last year] according to the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association, the crude steel output of 64 countries included in the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association in April 2020 was 137.1 million tons, down 13% from the same period last year. Among them: China's crude steel production in April 2020 was 85 million tons, up 0.2% from the same period last year; India's crude steel production in April was 3.1 million tons, down 65.2% from the same period last year; and Japan's crude steel production in April was 6.6 million tons, down 23.5% from the same period last year. In April, crude steel production in the European Union was estimated at 107.29 billion tons, down 22.9 percent from a year earlier. [SMM Steel]

[general Administration of Customs: China's exports of plates increased 5.1 per cent year on year in April, down 17.9 per cent] according to the latest data of the General Administration of Customs, in April 2020, China exported 4.07 million tons of steel plates, an increase of 5.1 per cent over the same period last year, a cumulative export of 12.91 million tons from January to April, down 8.2 per cent from the same period last year.

In April, China exported 820000 tons of iron and steel bars, down 17.9 percent from the same period last year. From January to April, exports totaled 2.87 million tons, down 29.7 percent from the same period last year.

In April, China exported 170000 tons of iron and steel wire rods, down 8.1 percent from the same period last year. From January to April, exports totaled 580000 tons, down 11.4 percent from the same period last year.

In April, China exported 310000 tons of angle steel and section steel, an increase of 10.8 percent over the same period last year. From January to April, exports totaled 1.18 million tons, an increase of 9.5 percent over the same period last year.

[China's exports of coal and lignite fell 38.1% in April compared with the same period last year] according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in April 2020, China exported 310000 tons of coal and lignite, down 38.1% from January to April, down 38.9% from the same period last year.

In April, China exported 350000 tons of coke and semi-coke, down 40.5 percent from the same period last year. From January to April, exports totaled 1.03 million tons, down 60.1 percent from the same period last year.

In April, China imported 30.95 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 22.4 percent over the same period last year. From January to April, China imported 126.73 million tons, an increase of 26.9 percent over the same period last year.

2. In the environment of "no speculation in housing", domestic financing channels have narrowed, financing costs have risen, and the capital problems faced by small real estate enterprises have been magnified. IPO in Hong Kong has become one of the preferred financing methods for these real estate enterprises. The internal motivation of these small real estate enterprises IPO with a sales scale of about 10 billion yuan is not only to broaden the financing channels and maintain the capital chain to ensure their survival, but also to continue to use bonds and other financing tools to maintain liquidity after a successful IPO. After listing, they can upgrade their international rating and issue foreign debts.

3. The two sessions passed on the issue of NT $1 trillion special treasury bonds to fight the epidemic, the author interpreted that it was more to consider dealing with the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States.

4. The spot price of steel arrived as scheduled, mainly due to the influence of rain in Guangzhou and Shandong in South China, the increase was too strong and needed to be digested, some steel traders took profits, fear of heights, and the impact of steel rising and falling were not fundamental changes. The author predicts that it will be about 50-80 yuan per ton, and there is no need for red rain to wash the cheeks if you want to go in front of the lamp.

5. Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain the same: for details, see the review last week and the outlook for June! I won't repeat it.

 

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