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[SMM current Review] I advise you to make a glass of wine, and there will be no one in the west.
May 22,2020 20:06CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(21 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 136 + 1709 + 375 + 8.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 85521 / > 5.021 million / 325367.

Trump said the highest infection in the world in the United States is the "Medal of Honor." Trump defended himself for taking the "magic drug" hydroxychloroquine: all the studies that said the drug was dangerous were fake. Is it reliable to take hydroxychloroquine to fight the epidemic? Vice President Burns: I don't eat. I listen to the doctor. Trump is back on the cover of time magazine and finally wearing a mask? After being ridiculed by Pelosi as "morbidly obese", Trump scolded her: she is mentally ill. Pengpeo responded to "fire" the inspector general of the State Department: I asked the president to fire him.

The economies of all 50 states in the United States have been "restarted", and expert officials are worried that there may be a second wave of outbreaks.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 18645 / > 1.5919 million / 94994.

Serious countries and regions.

Russia: > 317500 / 8764 / 3099.

Brazil: > 293300 / 14489Comp18894.

UK: > 248200 / 2412 / 35704.

India: > 112000 / 4527 Compact 3434.

Peru: > 104000 / 4550 / 3024.

Canada: > 80000 / 613 / 6031.

Pakistan: > 45900 / 1932 / 1017.

Saudi Arabia: > 62500 / 2694 Compact 339

Chile: > 5.36 Universe 3520 Compact 544.

< 2 > Today's current replay.

1. Spot market prices are generally weak in the morning and strong in the afternoon, generally returning to the track in the morning and rising in the afternoon.

Trading volume: weak in the morning, hot in the afternoon, generally OK.

Market mentality: the market is bullish.

Today, the billet in Tangshan area is stable to 3270 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The price of scrap is generally stable.

The price of coke remained stable after rising.

Coking coal prices have risen steadily, bullish expectations have increased.

For more information on the spot market of iron ore port, see SMM Nonferrous Network:

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

This morning even iron narrow fluctuations, the port spot market quotation to maintain stability, in the afternoon with the strong pull up, some merchants bargaining space narrowed, individual upward quotation, merchants shipments are more active. As for the steel mills, today's inquiry mood is not good, and some of them are purchased on demand. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is about 730yuan / ton, and that in Tangshan area is 735,737 yuan / ton. The overall transaction is mediocre. From the point of view of the variety of transactions, there are more medium-and low-grade minerals in the port spot market today. According to the calculation of SMM data model, calculated at 96 US gold mine, the current thread and hot coil profits are declining rapidly, and the steel mills may continue to increase the use of low-grade or non-main ore in the later stage. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures: look back and smile.

RB2010 main contract: shock uplink between 3527 and 3571 within the day, closing at 3568.

HC2010 main contract: shock uplink between 3441 and 3477 within the day, closing at 3469.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: get mad again! Run between 701 and 723.5 in a day, closing at 722.

Coke J2009 main contract: to win the championship and become a beauty with anger. It fluctuated upwards between 1812 and 1864.5 during the day, closing at 1850.5.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1153 to 1171.5 strong shock, closing 1165.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot: rebound to continue to walk.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3540 and 3610.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3450 and 3520.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 710 and 730.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1840 and 1880.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1200.

3. Spot operation tips: short rhythm continues to meet the high appropriate amount of inventory.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot coil:

Huangsha wears gold armor in a hundred battles, but does not break Loulan (RB3610, HC3520) and will not return it in the end. The rolling operation of high selling and low suction continues to be the main operation in the range.

Iron ore: high selling and low suction in the range, fast-in and fast-out, falling below more than 710 single stop loss.

Coke: in the early stage, most of them left the market at a high profit.

Coking coal: mainly traded in the range, falling below 1100 stop loss.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3540.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3450

I2009 main contract: support level 710.

J2009 main contract: support level 1840.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1100.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. The third session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opened at 3 pm today and closed on the 27th afternoon, four and a half days shorter than the original plan.

2. [Ministry of Ecology and Environment: focus on promoting joint prevention and control of air pollution in Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan involves 80 million tons of iron and steel] from the perspective of basic emissions, the structural problems in this area are prominent, and the basic emissions are large. In terms of industrial structure, the region has concentrated nearly 80 million tons of iron and steel, 40 million tons of coking, 140 million tons of cement and 110 million tons of petrochemical capacity. ?

3. Shagang ten-day price.

In late May, the settlement price of building materials in Shagang rose by 50%: rebar 3750, Panlug 3850, wire 3810C, and 30% of the previous spiral plate.

4. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:

This week, the increase in the total output of the five major varieties fell back to 75400 tons to 10.6382 million tons, of which rebar production increased by 102500 tons to 3.9156 million tons, and hot rolling production increased slightly by 7000 tons to 3.0821 million tons.

The total inventory of the five major varieties fell by 1.4344 million tons to 22.2875 million tons, of which the total inventory of rebar fell by 869100 tons to 11.3765 million tons, and that of hot rolling by 86500 tons to 4.1409 million tons.

Steel mill inventory: the five major varieties fell by 501900 tons to 6.1156 million tons, rebar by 303500 tons to 3.0101 million tons, and hot rolling by 20400 tons to 1.1474 million tons.

Social inventory: the five major varieties decreased by 932500 tons to 16.1719 million tons, rebar by 565600 tons to 8.3664 million tons, and hot rolling by 66100 tons to 2.9935 million tons.

See Table 1 for details.

Interpretation: today's inventory data sunrise is generally in line with the author's expectations.

(1) the output of the five major varieties increased to 10.64 million tons and broke the peak of last year, of which the rebar output reached a record high of 3.91 million tons, and the hot rolling output only slightly increased to 3.08 million tons. The limited expansion of total output is further supported, but the output of rebar has reached an all-time high.

(2) the so-called high demand in the market reaches its peak and further perjury, and the demand return period is more long-term.

(3) the inventory pressure is out of the question, and the steel mills are even easier to fight! The phenomenon of lack of specifications in a few regions, such as the Shanghai market, has been beckoned.

(4) the total inventory of five major varieties is 22.29 million tons, and the total inventory of rebar is 11.37 million tons. If the author considers the sample equivalent value of uniform caliber: the total inventory of five major varieties is 19.39 million tons, and the rebar bank is 7.28 million tons.

(5) if we consider that the statistical day of this week is one day less than that of last week, destocking is better than last week.

In short, the fundamentals continue to improve; superimposed "high iron ore drilling prices" and coke prices rise, steel mill profits converge sharply below 100 yuan / ton (in current terms), helping steel prices rebound and suppress production expansion.

Overall optimistic interpretation, the author originally predicted that the end of May to early June to return to the rut space is very limited!

5. Coke point of view to maintain the same, the early phase of the high profit to leave the field, new into the single range of operation is appropriate, in time to stop profit and loss.

6. Iron ore.

First, the so-called domestic inventory has been reduced by less than 110 million tons, and I do not agree with the continuation of high demand! Familiar do not know the operating rate has exceeded 90%, capacity utilization has reached 82% 83%, how much room can be left! It's just a story made up by long positions.

Second, although the outbreak of the epicenter of the epidemic in Brazil, but the overall impact of production and shipping volume so far is not as exaggerated as the bullish story!

Third, the new rules of the General Administration of Customs on the import of iron ore, the author interprets it is more beneficial. But only as expected.

The fourth is to trigger this round of "divine mine" soaring only and only as a result of capital manipulation! The fundamentals have not changed!

Fifth, last year's "national war" (900, the whole steel industry works for Australian kangaroos), today it repeats itself! The original crime should be dereliction of duty on the part of the regulatory authorities.

Sixth, the operation should face up to the emotion of capital manipulation! Homeopathy, the author believes that short-term madness will continue, empty wait! Multi-order or wait-and-see, activists multi-single entry need to set a stop point, fast-in and fast-out is the hard core.

Seventh, the market's so-called prediction of what position, is complete bullshit! Can the mood of capital manipulation be predicted? The story says that anything is possible. 800? 900? 1000? Or the 10,000 mark?! I am stupid and unable to predict, I beg your pardon! In short, hope and go and cherish.

Heart-to-heart words (Wednesday).

Affected by the low finishing of futures, today's steel prices and transaction performance are not as good as yesterday, and the short-term rebound is relatively large, so it is normal to realize that the digestion period of the market is really normal. There is no need for red rain to wash the cheeks, and the fundamentals of steel continue to improve, that is, strong reality and strong expectations are still on the way. No, no. Moving forward after adjustment is a high probability event! Following the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow afternoon, destocking is expected to continue to accelerate, and production growth is more likely to decline than the previous month. In short, the author's trend point of view remains unchanged.

Iron ore fundamentals have not changed, the subsequent rising space depends on the mood of capital manipulation, short-term short order temporarily wait and see! In the range of activists, it is appropriate to sell high and suck low, fast in and out.

The second round of coke rises and falls to the ground, and the market is optimistic. The third round of improvement depends on the limited rainfall of environmental protection and the expansion of steel enterprises' profits. The author tends to land in June.

Heart-to-heart words (Tuesday).

Black strong expectations and strong realization are still on the way to cash.

In terms of steel

The Keqiang economic index (electricity consumption) rebounded sharply in the first half of May.

Environmental protection limit production thunderstorm line …. No, no.

Sanction White-eyed Wolf Australian Coal Coke Co., Ltd.

The demand is high to continue to walk. No, no.

The military exercise has a long span.

The rise in house prices is unexpected.

The "two sessions" are expected to have a glass of wine. No, no.

The deal helped the steel price rise, and the steel mills took the opportunity to give it a push. No, no.

The market is afraid of heights and has expectations.

In short, it is wise to cash in profits with a short rhythm, and wait until you return to the wrong way. It is expected that there will be momentum to turn around from the end of the month to the beginning of June.

Iron ore.

The manipulation of funds has not gone down the fever. No, no.

What's wrong with the epidemic in Brazil? no, no.

There is a story about the long span of the military exercise.

There are worries about environmental protection and production restrictions, which are not as good as sanctions against Australian kangaroos.

Domestic demand continues to expand the proposition pseudo …. No, no.

The probability of the drilling price going up to a higher level is high, but it reaches its peak in stages and approaches line by line.

In short, the short-rhythm range is dominated by more trading, set a good stop-loss point; medium-term short order wait and see.

Coke.

Under the thunderstorm of environmental protection and production restriction. Pay more attention to the Shandong direction.

There is a story about the long span of the military exercise.

The demand of steel mills continues to expand. No, no.

Sanction the white-eyed wolf Australian coal coke to help the line …. No, no.

The Heilongjiang coal mine has an influence. No, no.

In short, once purple Weidong, Hu Xingsen Yao Mang.

Heart-to-heart words (Monday).

1. The "two sessions" are just around the corner, the storm of environmental protection and production restrictions is coming, and the increasing rainfall and superimposed demand in Tangshan area is more likely to return. This week, it rebounded and continued to go, but the space converged (there may be a probability of adjustment on Wednesday, but the range is limited). In short, the author does not have more views to maintain the same.

2. The price of scrap has limited space to go back to rutting, and there is a high probability of going forward after a short break. The view of coke remains unchanged once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900).

Iron ore: although the valuation is high, but the Brazilian epidemic outbreak superimposed capital manipulation sentiment for the time being, the range continues to trade too much, fast in and out. A small wave of decline is expected in early June.

Zhou Xinyu is attached.

1.. Macroeconomic data are generally neutral. Real estate data, mainly the growth rate of new construction area is still down 18.4%, but the residential construction area increased by 3.8%, further verifying that the demand for real estate stock is not bad! The demand return period is even more expected that the author will not repeat it for N times! Nine words to wake up lost Shi, a large number of people wake up in the dream. On the supply side, with the rapid development of Shijiao (the author believes that scrap steel is likely to be stored in the short term), the cost has moved up sharply, the profits of steel mills have shrunk sharply, and the superimposed operating rate is as high as 90%. In addition, the positive impact of the 75-day military exercise is believed to be in cash. No, no. In addition, the environmental protection and production restrictions of the "two sessions" are already raining. No, no. Why worry about the huge increase in production?!

In short, the author's forward-looking deduction and point of view remain unchanged.

Except for scrap steel and coke, the view of raw material remains unchanged.

Due to the short-term promotion of three factors, iron ore futures still have room to rise, and short sellers have to wait. First, in the outbreak of the epidemic in Brazil, the above news seriously affected the supply of Vale. Second, the military exercises, including and not limited to the impact of transport, increase in transit costs, cargo ships stranded in port, temporary requisition of civilian ships, etc., can happen unexpectedly. Third, the heat of capital manipulation, the intensity of further excitement, of course, the desire to die, must let it crazy!

 

To sum up, steel prices are still negative in April, and the upper and lower driving forces are limited. We are ready to start in May and can be expected in June.

[spot arbitrage training] Black experts teach practical experience and scientific transactions achieve profit growth https://news.smm.cn/news/101063159

For more information, please contact SMM Iron and Steel Division: Lu Qingping Tel: 021 Murray 51595781

 

 

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