SMM5 March 21: most of the non-ferrous metals rose today, and the third session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee opened in the afternoon. Before the close, many commodities were encouraged and the center of gravity moved up, but Shanghai aluminum accidentally dived at the end of the day, falling 0.74%. Shanghai Nickel's main 2007 contract night market significantly increased its positions and maintained a strong position during the day, hitting a three-month high. The Philippines reported on Thursday that its first-quarter nickel ore production fell 27 per cent from a year earlier to 28006 tons, as more than half of the country's 29 nickel mines reported zero production. According to the Philippine Mines and Geology Bureau, only 11 nickel mines in the country reported production in the first quarter, while the remaining 18 were either in a state of maintenance or stopped production due to adverse weather. The epidemic in Indonesia did not affect ferronickel production and export. NPI production continued to increase and the output shipped back to China increased steadily. The progress of enterprise production in the second quarter was only higher than that in the first quarter. SMM expects that imports may continue to increase in the future. In terms of copper, the foreign trade copper market has been hot for nearly a month and a half, and the market activity has obviously weakened this week. Yangshan copper premium hovered for many days, it is difficult to see a rise. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed this week, and the weakening import price directly suppresses the market demand for goods, while traders mostly wait and see, and the market turnover is limited. Import losses continue to expand, high Yangshan copper premium falls back. [SMM analysis] Import profit window closes, Yangshan copper premium falls back.
The black department continued to rise, and this afternoon, the black department changed to a stable later stage in the morning, and the whole line went higher. Among them, the iron ore 09 contract closed up 2.05% at 722 yuan / ton, the highest since August last year. Steel products that were pulled back yesterday due to the relaxation of production restrictions also began to rise. Iron ore port inventory low superimposed the third session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee opened in the afternoon, iron ore rose in the afternoon. And prior to this, Shahe City carried out a large-scale safety inspection of explosion-related enterprises, resulting in a boost when the subway mine stopped production. Xingtai local safety and environmental protection maintenance is relatively strict, the local mine just resumed production in early May, the local mine has said that it has stopped production. Steel inventory data released, the actual inventory situation is not as expected, but the volume is against the trend to pull up. According to SMM analysis, mainly due to the approaching of the two sessions, the market has a strong expectation of the follow-up release, superimposed the recent performance of the outer disk is good, iron ore continues to rise driven by this, and the volume goes up against the trend.
Crude oil rose 3.84% in the previous period. Today, the two oil rose more than 2%, and both rose more than 2%. WTI crude oil reached as high as 34.37 US dollars per barrel today, recovering most of the decline since Saudi Arabia launched the oil price war. It is still about ten US dollars short of the price of about 45 US dollars per barrel before the price war. Mainly because previous data showed that US crude oil inventories fell last week, and production fell faster than expected, alleviating the oversupply situation that led to pressure on oil storage space. [SMM analysis] crude oil inventories continue to decline and the oil market tends to rebalance oil prices to recover more than half of the decline.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
Today, the market welcomed a huge amount of money to enter the market, black and non-ferrous plates received full support, inflow of 1.449 billion, 809 million yuan respectively. Among them, iron ore and Shanghai nickel are typical representatives, absorbing 831 million, 681 million yuan respectively to rank at the top of the commodity flow list. Precious metals recently frequent capital flow, silver correction is slightly larger today, behind the outflow of more than 600 million yuan, Shanghai gold outflow of nearly 400 million yuan, the two ranked in the top two commodity outflows.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 21st
Copper: Shanghai copper rose sharply from 43800 yuan / ton to 44350 yuan / ton in night trading yesterday. Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened at 44340 yuan / ton in the morning, and the increase in copper price fell to 44210 yuan / ton. Then the bulls increased their positions one after another, and the price of copper rushed up to the highest point of the day, 44500 yuan / ton. However, the long day to push up the energy is limited, the disk slipped to 44340 yuan / ton, and around the position for horizontal finishing, until the close at noon. The volatility of copper price increased in the afternoon, the bulls left the market at a profit, the short positions increased, and the copper price fell to 44050 yuan / ton. Copper prices fell and rebounded before the close, and finally closed at 44150 yuan / ton, up 450yuan / ton, or 1.03%. Today, the number of positions in the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased by 3370 to 113000, mainly by long positions, the trading volume increased by 25000 to 107000, and Shanghai Copper 2006 reduced its positions by 4264 to 91000, mainly by short positions. During the day, the main force of Shanghai copper operated at a high above 44000, mainly because the market's expectations for the global economic recovery were further strengthened, and China was also eagerly looking forward to the introduction of positive policies by the "two sessions". Macro sentiment continued to heat up, and copper prices were supported. However, concerns about the long-term impact of the new crown epidemic remain, with the cumulative global diagnosis of new crown pneumonia exceeding 5 million, and investor caution has rallied the dollar index and suppressed the rise in copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper closed, continuing the rising trend, copper prices jumped away from the lower moving average, KDJ opening continued to expand, the technical side is good for copper prices. Wait for the guidance of the outer disk at night to test whether the bulls can continue to push to support the uprush of Shanghai copper.
Aluminum: the main 2007 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 12950 yuan / ton in the morning. When short positions were first encountered, aluminum prices slightly reached an intraday high of 13020 yuan / ton, continued to show weakness, and then the high level fell all the way down. During this period, it briefly hovered at 12900 yuan / ton and failed to receive relevant guidance. In the afternoon, the low fell to 12640 yuan / ton, and then rose at the end of the day. It closed at 12775 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, down 0.74%. Trading volume increased by 70974 lots to 162000 lots, while positions decreased by 3326 lots to 157000 lots, closing at the Xiaoyin line, with the daily KDJ third-line converging downward. Today, the National two sessions officially kicked off, focusing on the focus of the market, paying attention to the guidelines of the announcement of related news on the mood of the night market and changes in positions.
Lead: during the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 14150 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead was consolidated around the daily moving average. In the afternoon, long funds re-entered the market to push up the lead price to 14280 yuan / ton, and the back air increased and decreased. Shanghai lead fell back near the daily average line, and finally closed at 14170 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton, or 0.85%. The position increased by 4226 hands to 25102 hands. Shanghai lead closed at Wulianyang, strengthened along the upstream channel, and successfully stood at the Wansi pass. From a technical point of view, Shanghai lead is expected to continue to strengthen strongly, superimposed by a pick-up in domestic macro-sentiment, so it is not appropriate to meet high selling short this week.
Zinc: during the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 16735 yuan / ton, and the long-short game was still deadlocked at the beginning of the session. Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range around 16700 yuan / ton, the upper and lower amplitude was less than 50 yuan / ton, and the bulls gradually reduced their positions and left the market in the afternoon. Zinc volume fell by 16405 yuan / ton, and some short positions at the end of the session stopped earnings and left the market. Zinc slightly repaired, and the final closing decline was 16.
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