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[SMM current Review] enough is enough, and it is good to "rise" as much as possible.
May 19,2020 19:15CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(19 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 146swap 1707Universe 389 patients.

The Chinese team has discovered a human single gram long antibody that can block the infection of the new crown virus, which is expected to be used in the research and development of anti-new crown drugs and vaccines. Academician Zhang Boli said that the mask could not be taken off within a year, and now there are many infections in countries with high temperatures. The team of Yuan Guoyong, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, has confirmed that wearing a mask can reduce the infection rate of new crowns.

Shulan City, Jilin Province: a notice was issued to further strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and implement the strictest control measures. Since 12:00 on May 18, the prevention and control of the epidemic situation has been further strengthened and the strictest control measures have been implemented in the city. The communities with confirmed cases and suspected cases adopt fully closed control, in principle prohibit the entry and exit of any personnel, and adopt the way of merchant super-distribution of daily necessities.

China always adheres to the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind. China will provide 2 billion US dollars in international aid within two years, and China will establish a cooperation mechanism for 30 Chinese and African counterparts to help Africa improve its capacity for disease prevention and control. After the research and development of China's new crown vaccine is completed and put into use, it will serve as a global public product and contribute to the accessibility and affordability of the vaccine in developing countries.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 128054 / > 4.81 million / 315567.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 6727 / > 1.55 million / 91981.

Serious countries and regions.

Russia: > 290000 / 2722.

UK: > 246400 / 2711 Compact 34796.

Brazil: > 255300 / 3055amp 16853.

India: > 101000 / 4463 Compact 3164.

Peru: > 94900 / 2789.

Canada: > 7.8 / 5842.

Pakistan: > 43900 / 939.

< 2 > Today's current replay.

1. Spot market prices rebounded and continued to move. The overall increase of 20,100 yuan / ton, low-price transactions can be, high-price transactions follow up insufficient, and even some regional markets in the afternoon high prices drop. Since May, the average rebar rebound has reached the mid-axis of 200 + 50 predicted by the author, and the average rebar has broken through 250 in some areas. The average increase of hot rolls is over 300 yuan / ton, and Lecong is as high as 400 yuan / ton. Those who are enlightened today wail!

Turnover: although the overall transaction is not as hot as yesterday, it is still in the category of high demand.

Market mentality: high prices and carefully wait and see the owner.

Today, the billet in Tangshan area goes up 10 to 3260 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The prices of scrap steel rise and fall each other as a whole.

Coke prices generally rose by 50 yuan: the second round of increases basically landed.

The price of coking coal has risen steadily.

For more information on the spot market of iron ore port, see SMM Nonferrous Network:

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Today, Lian Railway continued to open high and go high. The price of the port spot market was raised by 5mur10 yuan / ton in early trading, and the main contract rose strongly at the end of the day. After the close, some merchants' bargaining space narrowed, and some transaction prices were significantly higher than before noon. Some steel mills purchase on demand, most steel mills are more cautious about price increases, and today's overall turnover is slightly better than yesterday. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is about 715 Mel 730 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 720 Mel 725 yuan / ton, which is up 5 muri 20 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. In view of the obvious volume of building materials transactions in the short term, the recovery of terminal downstream demand is optimistic, which continues to drive the demand for raw materials procurement in steel mills. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3522 to 3583 strong shock, closing 3562.

HC2010 main contract: within the day between 3430 to 3495 strong shock, closing 3469.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: a new high of 711.

The day fluctuated upstream between 694 and 711, closing at 711.

 

Coke J2009 main contract:

It fluctuated upwards between 1818 and 1842 during the day, closing at 1837.5.

 

Coking coal JM2009 main contract:

The day fluctuated upwards between 1136.5 and 1175, closing at 1170.5.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot: strong operation.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3530 and 3610.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3340 and 3510.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 695 and 725.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1820 and 1880.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1200.

3. Spot operation tips: short rhythm continues to meet the high appropriate amount of inventory.

Thread, hot coil:

Huangsha wears gold armor in a hundred battles, but does not break Loulan (RB3610, HC3580) and will not return it in the end. The rolling operation of high selling and low suction is the main operation in the interval.

Iron ore: high selling and low suction in the range, fast-in and fast-out, falling below 685 single stop loss.

Coke: high selling and low suction trading in the range, falling below more than 1800 single stop loss.

Coking coal: mainly traded in the range, falling below 1100 stop loss.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400.

I2009 main contract: support level 686.

J2009 main contract: support level 1810.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1100.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. Bureau of Statistics: in April, real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to rise slightly, but the overall situation is still relatively stable. The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively over the same period last year, up 0.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively from the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities rose 5.6 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively over the same period last year, up 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively from the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities rose 5.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively over the same period last year, up 0.6 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively from the previous month.

[China's steel production increased 1.1% in April compared with the same period last year] according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's steel production in April 2020 was 21.116 million tons, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to April was 74.17 million tons, down 1.0% from the same period last year.

In April, China's production of medium-thick and wide steel strip was 12.973 million tons, an increase of 4.0% over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to April was 51.822 million tons, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year.

In April, the output of wire rod (wire rod) in China was 12.937 million tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to April was 4641.6 tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year.

In April, China's original iron ore output was 74.379 million tons, an increase of 11.2% over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to April was 262.739 million tons, an increase of 3.0% over the same period last year.

2. After the growth rate of power generation changed from negative to positive in April, China's full-caliber electricity generation achieved relatively rapid growth in May, with an increase of 5.6% in the first 15 days compared with the same period last year, the fastest growth period so far this year, indicating that the economy is continuing to recover and improve. In April, China's electricity generation was 554.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 0.3 per cent from a year earlier and down 4.6 per cent last month. After entering May, electricity generation returned at a faster growth rate.

3. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 88 ships arrived at China's main ports from May 10 to May 16, with an estimated arrival volume of 13.51 million tons, a decrease of 540000 tons compared with the previous period. During this period, Australia's outbound shipments increased by 200000 tons to 15.8 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 720000 tons over the same period last year. Brazil's current period of departure fell by 560000 tons from the previous month to 4.71 million tons, which was basically the same as the same period last year. Vale recently announced the resumption of its Malay TRMT port operation, but in view of the recent rapid spread of the epidemic in Brazil, short-term iron ore shipments in Brazil may not see a significant increase. [SMM Steel]

4. [Heilongjiang Dragon Coal Group and local coal mines stop production for safety inspection during the "two sessions"] Heilongjiang Dragon Coal Group and local coal mines will stop production from May 20 to carry out safety inspections to resolutely prevent and contain the occurrence of coal mine safety accidents. to create a safe and stable social environment for the successful convening of the national "two sessions", and all coal mines in Heilongjiang will be shut down for nine days. According to the caliber of the Bureau of Statistics, the average output of raw coal in May of the past three years was 4.333 million tons, with a daily output of 139800 tons per day, and the theoretical output of raw coal decreased by 1.26 million tons after 9 days of suspension. It is understood that recently, local coal mines have begun to prepare for the shutdown one after another, and some coal mines have indicated that they have coal mine stocks, and the short-term shutdown will not affect downstream users. [SMM Steel]

5. Black Department strong expectations are still on the way to cash.

In terms of steel

The Keqiang economic index (electricity consumption) rebounded sharply in the first half of May.

Environmental protection limit production thunderstorm line …. No, no.

Sanction White-eyed Wolf Australian Coal Coke Co., Ltd.

The demand is high to continue to walk. No, no.

The military exercise has a long span.

The rise in house prices is unexpected.

The "two sessions" are expected to have a glass of wine. No, no.

The deal helped the steel price rise, and the steel mills took the opportunity to give it a push. No, no.

The market is afraid of heights and has expectations.

In short, it is wise to cash in profits with a short rhythm, and wait until you return to the wrong way. It is expected that there will be momentum to turn around from the end of the month to the beginning of June.

Iron ore.

The manipulation of funds has not gone down the fever. No, no.

What's wrong with the epidemic in Brazil? no, no.

There is a story about the long span of the military exercise.

There are worries about environmental protection and production restrictions, which are not as good as sanctions against Australian kangaroos.

Domestic demand continues to expand the proposition pseudo …. No, no.

The probability of the drilling price going up to a higher level is high, but it reaches its peak in stages and approaches line by line.

In short, the short-rhythm range is dominated by more trading, set a good stop-loss point; medium-term short order wait and see.

Coke.

Under the thunderstorm of environmental protection and production restriction. Pay more attention to the Shandong direction.

There is a story about the long span of the military exercise.

The demand of steel mills continues to expand. No, no.

Sanction the white-eyed wolf Australian coal coke to help the line …. No, no.

The Heilongjiang coal mine has an influence. No, no.

In short, once purple Weidong, Hu Xingsen Yao Mang.

 

Words from the bottom of my heart.

1. The "two sessions" are just around the corner, the storm of environmental protection and production restrictions is coming, and the increasing rainfall and superimposed demand in Tangshan area is more likely to return. This week, it rebounded and continued to go, but the space converged (there may be a probability of adjustment on Wednesday, but the range is limited). In short, the author does not have more views to maintain the same.

2. The price of scrap has limited space to go back to rutting, and there is a high probability of going forward after a short break. The view of coke remains unchanged once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900).

Iron ore: although the valuation is high, but the Brazilian epidemic outbreak superimposed capital manipulation sentiment for the time being, the range continues to trade too much, fast in and out. A small wave of decline is expected in early June.

 

Zhou Xinyu is attached.

1.. Macroeconomic data are generally neutral. Real estate data, mainly the growth rate of new construction area is still down 18.4%, but the residential construction area increased by 3.8%, further verifying that the demand for real estate stock is not bad! The demand return period is even more expected that the author will not repeat it for N times! Nine words to wake up lost Shi, a large number of people wake up in the dream. On the supply side, with the rapid development of Shijiao (the author believes that scrap steel is likely to be stored in the short term), the cost has moved up sharply, the profits of steel mills have shrunk sharply, and the superimposed operating rate is as high as 90%. In addition, the positive impact of the 75-day military exercise is believed to be in cash. No, no. In addition, the environmental protection and production restrictions of the "two sessions" are already raining. No, no. Why worry about the huge increase in production?!

In short, the author's forward-looking deduction and point of view remain unchanged.

Except for scrap steel and coke, the view of raw material remains unchanged.

Due to the short-term promotion of three factors, iron ore futures still have room to rise, and short sellers have to wait. First, in the outbreak of the epidemic in Brazil, the above news seriously affected the supply of Vale. Second, the military exercises, including and not limited to the impact of transport, increase in transit costs, cargo ships stranded in port, temporary requisition of civilian ships, etc., can happen unexpectedly. Third, the heat of capital manipulation, the intensity of further excitement, of course, the desire to die, must let it crazy!

 

 

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