SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang in late May will not be compensated, that is, the third-grade large snail (ex-factory price 3700 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the East China warehouse cost is 3650 yuan / ton, and the factory lift cost is 3600 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis: close to the two sessions, the market has good expectations for the relevant policies that may be released after the meeting, coupled with the continued rise in the raw material end, jointly promoting the rise of steel prices. According to SMM statistics, from mid-May to now, the spot rebar in East China has increased by 90Mu100 yuan / ton.
However, there may be a risk of a small correction in spot prices in the short term. On the one hand, as the price surge is not driven by the demand side, so the acceptance of the market is general, especially the shipping situation of the East China market is not satisfactory. On the other hand, while production continues to rise and inventory remains high (according to SMM, as of May 15, Hangzhou thread inventory was higher than 83.8% last year), steel mills continued to increase their release to the market under inventory pressure, and the pressure on the supply side of the market remained. In addition, from the perspective of the price trend in the middle of the year, the price increase is mainly concentrated in recent days, traders are still in a state of loss, and the market mentality has not been significantly improved after the price increase. Therefore, from a comprehensive point of view, there is a high probability of maintaining flat trading in the third phase of the steel mill.
In terms of making up the gap: according to the SMM Iron and Steel calculation, the average selling price of Shagang resources in Hangzhou is 3580 yuan / ton, and the trader lost 70 yuan per ton of steel. According to the survey, as of May 19, the transaction price in Hangzhou was about 3650 per ton, with a profit of about 10 yuan per ton. The odds of a steel mill in ten days will not help. Cost: according to the SMM steel data model, the thread cost of the long-process steel mill is 3315.4 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 274.6 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Shagang 10% off the planned May thread (6.8% last month), 10% off the plate screw (10% off last month), 10% off the mid-day thread (10% off the previous period), 10% off the wire rod and screw (10% off the previous period), 6.5% off the thread of Yonggang (60% off in the previous period), 90% off the wire rod and screw (7.5% off in the previous period).