SMM5 March 18: during the day, non-ferrous metals collectively closed higher, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, Shanghai nickel also rebounded strongly in the afternoon. The market was boosted by the news of the two sessions. As for zinc inventory, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 227700 tons as of May 18, down 9900 tons from last Monday. On the consumer side, large galvanized pipe factories have reached full capacity production, and orders continue to improve, and the operating rate will remain high in May. Zinc prices this week are mainly strong shocks, follow-up attention to the policy guidelines of the two sessions. The short-term or long-short divergence in the copper market has increased, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. China's domestic epidemic situation has been brought under control, the economy has continued to pick up, and major economic indicators such as industrial value added, investment and electricity generation have continued to improve. Copper domestic downstream operating rate continues to pick up month-on-month, spot demand is exuberant. The third session of the 13th National people's Congress will be held in Beijing on May 22 to focus on the change in policy tone.
Black is very strong today, with iron ore up 5.41%, thread up 2.17% and hot roll up 2.5%. Multiple factors jointly promote the thread period to resonate upwards. under the influence of multiple factors, such as the news of tightening production restrictions in Tangshan, the strong willingness of steel mills to push up prices, and the expectation of preferences for the upcoming two sessions, spot prices of billets and threads rose sharply over the weekend. Today, the black disk as a whole opened high, the snail rose by 2%, the latest price rose 70 points, and spot prices resonated upward. However, at present, the steel supply pressure is still high, and the absolute amount of steel inventory is still high, and the late market may enter the Meiyu season with high supply and high inventory, so once the steel inventory slows down from late May to early June, we do not rule out a wave of adjustment market. "Meiyu season will be the highest supply, high inventory of steel prices upward pressure.
Crude oil rose 5.02% in the previous period. International oil prices rose more than $1 on Monday as production shrank and demand showed signs of recovering as more countries relaxed anti-epidemic blockades, while US crude showed no signs of unrest as contracts neared expiration last month. Brent crude futures rose $1.40, or 4.31%, to $33.90 a barrel, the highest level since April 13. The June contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $1.69, or 5.74 per cent, to $31.12 a barrel after hitting its highest level since March 16. The more actively traded July contract rose $1.57 to $31.09 a barrel.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
In terms of capital flow, precious metals are still the key allocation plate, oil chain outflow of 424 million funds, for the plate "blood loss" the most. In terms of specific varieties, gold and silver inflows of 6.14 yuan and 481 million yuan respectively ranked among the top two commodity inflows. Methanol was hit by short sellers, with a inflow of 460 million yuan, making it the weakest chemical product today. Although iron ore recorded a surge, but the inflow of capital is not huge, ranking fourth in commodities.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 18th
Copper: the main copper in Shanghai opened at 42910 yuan / ton in the morning, and the copper price jumped 250 yuan / ton to 43160 yuan / ton after the opening. Then it is arranged horizontally around the position of 43100 yuan / ton. Copper prices climbed slowly before midday, closing at 43170 yuan / ton. Opening in the afternoon, bulls continued to increase positions, copper prices fluctuated upward, exploring the highest point of 43330 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity stabilized at 43270 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, it closed at 43270 yuan / ton, up 270yuan / ton, or 0.63%. Intraday positions in Shanghai Copper 2006 contracts decreased by 4401 lots to 11000 lots, mainly as short positions were reduced, while trading volume decreased by 7745 lots to 68000 lots. At present, the difference in position between 06 contract and 07 contract is only 4000 hands, and the position is about to be completed and moved back. At present, Shanghai Copper still maintains the back structure, and the contract price difference of 06mur07 is about 140yuan / ton. Shanghai copper rose during the day, mainly because international oil prices continued to rise sharply. Fuel demand is expected to be boosted by the gradual easing of epidemic prevention restrictions around the world, coupled with continued production cuts on the supply side, as US drilling companies cut oil and gas drilling to record lows for the second week in a row, with oil prices continuing last week's rally. Superimposed global macroeconomic environment continued to be loose, market risk appetite warmed up, contributing to the rise in copper prices. The fundamentals haven't changed much. At present, the price of copper in Shanghai has been closed, with 20-day and 60-day moving average support below, and the opening of KDJ continues to shrink. From a technical point of view, copper prices still have upward momentum. Wait for the outer disk guide at night to test whether Shanghai Copper can continue to rush.
Zinc: within the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai zinc is opened at 16505 yuan / ton, which is mostly empty at the beginning of the day, and Shanghai zinc is pulled up in a straight line, and the center of gravity is quickly moved up to 16580 yuan / ton for finishing and operation. The buying power increased sharply in the afternoon, and Shanghai zinc picked up the upward trend and reached a rise of 16735 yuan / ton, but relatively high funds were put under pressure, while some bulls stopped leaving the market. Shanghai zinc recorded an inverted V decline and gave up all its afternoon gains. The final closing price rose to 16595 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, or 0.79%. The trading volume decreased by 844 lots to 127000 lots, and the position increased by 865 lots to 116000 lots. Although some overseas mining enterprises have restarted, it will take time to achieve domestic replenishment, while the domestic zinc social inventory is still at a high level to constitute upward suppression. It is expected that zinc will still be able to act at night or step back on all moving average oscillations at night.
SMM "combination of period and present" training course
Registration contact: Lu Qingping, Iron and Steel Division of SMM
Tel: 021mur51595781 / 187MUE 1777MUE 4590