5.18 minutes of the Bronze Morning meeting
[summary of the 5.18 SMM Copper Morning meeting] Macro: 1) the actual monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April was-16.40%, the largest decline since records began in 1992, with a previous value of-8.70% and an expected rate of-12%. 2) Secretary General OPEC said: OPEC+ countries are rapidly reducing production, and global oil production is expected to fall to 17.2 million barrels per day. OPEC is cautiously optimistic that the worst of the oil crisis is over. 3) Frost, chief negotiator of Britain's "Brexit" negotiations, said on the 15th that only "limited progress" had been made in the third round of negotiations on future relations between Britain and the EU, which ended on the same day, and that the two sides still had huge differences. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (week) was at $54.25 / ton, up $0.04 / ton from last week. The logistics situation in countries such as the United States and Peru continued to improve, and SMM learned that sellers had begun to reissue goods that had been delayed before, easing the supply tension. Peru continued to relax its control policy, and the Oil and Energy Commission (SNMPE) approved the first health emergency plan for 11 units of five mining companies, and large mines took the lead in resuming work to increase the operating rate. In terms of logistics, the gathering port and shipping speed of copper concentrate has been accelerated, and it is expected to return to normal by June. 2) the recent fluctuations in copper scrap prices have had a slight impact on the shippers' shipping sentiment, but the current trend is not clear. Traders will not continue to hoard goods and give priority to the principle of profit delivery, so the circulation of scrap copper is basically smooth. The domestic scrap copper market will not change much. The fine scrap price gap continues to be repaired, and the profit and price difference advantages of scrap copper rods are also gradually expanding, which will undoubtedly continue to be favorable for scrap copper rod orders. It is expected that the operating rate of waste copper rod will rise again in May. Enterprises are actively purchasing waste copper raw materials, barely able to maintain daily production, and waste copper rod and brass enterprises still have a great demand for waste copper. Last Friday, the price difference of fine waste was 779 yuan / ton (the ticket point is calculated as 5.9%). [bearish] 3) the import profit of imported copper was around 150 yuan / ton last Friday. Market activity was significantly weaker than the previous day, with light turnover. The price offered by the consignor for the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong at the end of May and early June remained high, and the limited supply of goods was quickly digested. As for the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong, the seller is reluctant to lower the price because it is expected to open the price in July after the change of month; the buyer is expected to have room for price reduction, the buying and selling order price is difficult to match, and the transaction is in a stalemate. There is almost no warehouse receipt offer. 4) inventory last week, LME copper inventory increased by 35050 tons to 278750 tons compared with the previous week; copper inventories in the previous period increased by 4671 tons to 208890 tons; and copper inventories in the bonded area decreased by 30, 000 tons to 235000 tons. [neutral] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, the lower reaches just need to receive goods after the price correction, bargain transactions continue to improve, and traders' speculative buying interest continues unabated. Shengshui is expected to remain strong after today's change of month. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 120 RMB150 / ton today. South China: last Friday, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong Province rose by 70% to the contract for that month. Spot market, the last trading day before the change of months, the market trading is very quiet, very few shippers, early trading a small amount of flat copper inflow, but soon by seconds, and then the shipper raised the price of the shipment. Overall, the market was quiet before delivery, with few transactions. Copper price and forecast: last Friday night, Lun copper closed at 5185.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.53%. Trading volume was 14000 lots, and short positions increased by 1913 to 274000 lots. Shanghai Copper Company 2006 contract closed at 42740 yuan / ton, down 0.60%. Bulls reduced their positions by 317 to 111000. Last Friday night trading copper prices continued to pull back, internal and external plates are broken multiple moving average support, the current round of rising market began to show fatigue. On the macro front, the second wave of epidemic worries and the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April were significantly lower than expected, market risk aversion was stimulated, spot gold hit a new high above $1750, and the dollar index also rose to put pressure on copper prices. At present, problems such as poor visibility into the timing and shape of economic recovery, renewed escalation of trade tensions and shallow liquidity may continue to put pressure on the market. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the gate today. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 5190Mir 5240 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 42800Mui 43,200 yuan / ton.